** NFL Trends and Index 2017 Week 14 **

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NFL opening line report: Focus is on the NFC in Week 14 with several key matchups
Patrick Everson

"We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later."

Without question, the best Week 14 NFL games are in the NFC, as the playoff picture continues to evolve. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a handful of matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

New Orleans had a one-game hiccup, then got right back to its winning ways and now stands atop the NFC South. The Saints (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw their eight-game win streak end in Week 12 at the Los Angeles Rams, but came home Sunday and beat Carolina 31-21 as a 5.5-point chalk.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta is making things tough for itself to even get back to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a nice little three-game SU and ATS win streak, then had a dismal offensive showing and lost at home to Minnesota 14-9 as a 2-point favorite in Week 13.

“Our team was anywhere from a pick ‘em to -3 for this matchup,” Cooley said. “The deuce felt like a fair number. We can see where the bettors are leaning early and adjust from there. We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later.”

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+1)

Minnesota just keeps on rolling behind a top-notch defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game. On Sunday, the Vikings (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went to Atlanta as a 2-point underdog and won a defensive slog 14-9.

Carolina (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won and cashed four straight heading into Sunday’s showdown with New Orleans. But the Panthers couldn’t keep it going, losing 31-21 catching 5.5 points.

“No matter how many wins, the Vikings don’t get any love from the general betting public,” Cooley said. “Sharps were on them again (against the Saints), and likely will be here, but the squares aren’t hopping aboard, so these spreads are kept somewhat at bay. Of course, you have to think Minnesota is going to stumble at some point.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Philadelphia has been the class of the NFC this season, but its impressive winning streak of nine games SU and eight games ATS finally ended Sunday night. The Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went off as 3.5-point road chalk against Seattle and lost outright, 24-10.

Los Angeles is red-hot of late, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven outings. The NFC West-leading Rams (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) doubled up Arizona 32-16 giving 7.5 points on the road Sunday.

With Philly having played in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu won’t post the line on this game until Monday.

“Depending on how Sunday night plays out, we could make this anywhere from a pick to L.A. a small ‘dog,” Cooley said. “If the latter happens, the Rams feel like a very live ‘dog at home. Despite the two prolific offenses, I expect to see sharp players on the under.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City started the season 5-0 SU and ATS and was 6-2 SU and ATS through eight weeks. The Chiefs (6-6 SU and ATS) haven’t won since then, dumping four in a row to fall into a three-way logjam atop the AFC West with Oakland and San Diego. On Sunday, K.C. blew a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and ultimately lost to the New York Jets 38-31 as a 4-point road fave.

Oakland has also played far below expectations this season, but has won three of its last four (1-2-1 ATS). In Week 13, the Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) held off the New York Giants 24-17 giving 10 points at home.

“Early action from the pros has been on Oakland, which prompted a 1-point move. They really don’t like this K.C. squad right now, and it’s obvious why,” Cooley said of sharp Raiders action forcing Bookmaker down to K.C. -3.5. “That said, you know this losing streak is going to end soon, and this is a season-defining type of game for the Chiefs. Expect their best effort here.”

[Admin]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14
Monty Andrews

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 47.5)

Raiders' ragged secondary vs. Chiefs' elite ball security

The AFC West is officially the craziest division in the NFL, with three teams tied for the division lead as we enter the final four weeks of the regular season. This week's encounter between the streaking Raiders and the tumbling Chiefs will have a significant impact on how the final standings play out - and despite Kansas City having squandered what was a comfortable lead just a month ago, it has a sizeable edge in this one when it comes to retaining possession on offense.

The Oakland pass defense is a major reason why the Raiders are sitting at .500 through 13 weeks rather than leading the division by several games. By any measure, Oakland has struggled mightily to contain opposing signal callers, surrendering 20 pass touchdowns with just one interception; only one other team, the Atlanta Falcons (three), have fewer than five INTs. In addition, Oakland's 108.2 passer rating against is easily the worst in football.

Despite Kansas City's recent struggles, don't expect the Raiders secondary to suddenly look like world beaters against Alex Smith. The Chiefs have perennially been one of the lowest-turnover offenses in football with Smith at the helm, and 2017 is no exception - Kansas City has thrown just six interceptions, tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. Look for Smith to pick apart Oakland's pass defense, which should at least give the Chiefs a fighting chance of ending their four-game losing skid.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 40.5)

Packers' red-zone proficiency vs. Browns' broken defense

No Aaron Rodgers? No problem - okay, several problems, but not as many as fans and bettors thought after the Packers lost their franchise quarterback to a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay evened its record at 6-6 with an impressive 26-20 overtime win over Tampa Bay, and with Rodgers due back later this month, a postseason spot remains in play. The Packers will look to improve their chances this week by exploiting a major edge in red-zone play against winless Cleveland.

If there is one area where Green Bay has remained as potent as ever, it is in turning red-zone opportunities into six points. The Packers come into Week 14 with a success rate of nearly 65 percent inside the opponents' 20-yard line, the third-best rate in the league. That red-zone proficiency was on full display in last week's victory over the Buccaneers, when Aaron Jones ran in his only carry from the Tampa Bay 20-yard line to give the Packers a critical victory.

The Browns have been halfway decent at limiting opponent yardage (327.2, 10th in NFL), but are lagging behind in just about every other defensive metric. That includes red-zone points against, with Cleveland having allowed a touchdown on 68.6 percent of foes' trips inside their 20 - the second-worst rate in the NFL. The Browns' chances of earning win No. 1 will likely hinge on their ability to hold Green Bay to field goals - and if that's the case, bettors shouldn't hold their breath.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3, 43)

49ers' third-down troubles vs. Texans' punt-forcing prowess

A two-game losing skid and a date with a suddenly improving San Francisco team has the host Texans staring at a minuscule edge in the Vegas line this weekend. Yet, despite having lost four of its past five games to guarantee a non-winning season, Houston is still in good position heading into Week 14. Not only have the Texans prevailed in two of their previous three home games, but they have been a force on third downs - and the 49ers, for lack of a more eloquent turn of phrase, have not.

Perhaps the switch at quarterback from C.J. Beathard to Jimmy Garoppolo will mean great things for the 49ers on third down - after all, they went a stunning 10-for-18 in such situations in Garoppolo's first start in the red and gold. But one game is just that - and if you look at the season, San Francisco is still converting just 36.3 percent of third downs, good for 26th out of 32 teams. And getting to third down 18 times against the Texans probably won't turn out nearly as well for Garoppolo and the visitors.

Only five teams have been stingier on third down than the Texans, who have forced a punt or fourth-down try on 65.9 percent of opponent opportunities. Houston has been even tighter over the previous three games, allowing teams to extend drives or score on just 31.4 percent of third-down chances. And with opponents converting just 32.4 percent of their third-down opportunities at NRG Stadium, it could be a long afternoon for Garoppolo and the rest of the San Francisco offense.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44)

Ravens' ball-hawking skills vs. Big Ben's interception troubles

The Ravens still have a shot at the NFC North title - albeit a small one - as they prepare to visit Ben Roethlisberger and the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Baltimore did its part to remain in the hunt with a 44-20 drubbing of the Detroit Lions - its third consecutive victory - and will be looking to atone for a 26-9 loss to the Steelers in their previous meeting Oct. 1. Even though Heinz Field is Big Ben's personal playground, the Ravens have the secondary to make life miserable for him.

The Ravens continue to lead the NFL in interceptions with 20 - four more than the runner-up Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars. And while it's fair to note that eight of those picks came in Baltimore's first two games - specifically, four each against the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns - the Ravens are still a top-six interception unit even if they hadn't recorded an INT in either of those contests. Opponents throw a pick on 5.14 percent of passing plays vs. Baltimore.

Roethlisberger escaped with just one interception in the Steelers' Week 4 triumph in Baltimore, but that was largely because his team ran the ball an unbelievable 42 times in the victory. Pittsburgh passers - yes, plural, thanks to Robert Golden's 44-yard completion in a Week 7 win over Cincinnati - come into this weekend with (12) interceptions, the seventh-most of any team. And with the Ravens looking to make up for their earlier loss, Pittsburgh might want to fire up 35 more carries for Le'Veon Bell.

[Admin]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday's game
Saints (9-3) @ Falcons (7-5)— New Orleans took over top spot in NFC South with win over Carolina LW; Saints won nine of last 10 games, are 3-2 in true road games, losing to Vikings, Rams. In its last five games, NO has run ball for 176 yds/game, taking heat off of Brees. Atlanta had 3-game win streak snapped by Vikings LW; Falcons are 7-0 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they score 17 or less. These rivals split last eight meetings; they meet again in two weeks in Superdome. Saints are 5-3 in last eight visits to Atlanta. Home teams are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Saint games went over total; under is 7-2 in Atlanta’s last nine games.

Sunday's games
Lions (6-6) @ Buccaneers (4-8)— Stafford hurt his hand late in loss to Ravens LW; check status. Untested Iowa alum Rudock is his backup. Lions allowed 74 points in losing last two games (turnover ratio of -5); they’re 4-2 on road, losing by 14 in Superdome, 24 in Baltimore. Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight games; they got QB Winston back last week, and are 3-2 at home, losing 19-14 to Patriots, 17-3 to Carolina. Detroit won three of last four series games, winning 27-20/23-20ot in last two visits here, with last visit here in ’11. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 7-10 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 7-6. Last five Detroit games went over total; four of Buccaneers’ five home games stayed under.

Bears (3-9) @ Bengals (5-7)— Last week, Bears were first team in NFL history to run a punt back for a TD, not allow a TD, win turnover battle and still lose the game. Last two weeks combined, Bears have run 85 plays for 287 yards- not good. Short week for Bengals after blowing 17-0 lead in Monday night loss to hated Steelers. Since 2005, Cincy is 5-9-1 vs spread in game the week following loss to Pittsburgh. Bengals covered their last four games; they’re 3-3 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorites. Chicago lost its last five gamesBengals won four of last six series games; teams split four meetings played here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 6-6. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Bengal games.

Colts (3-9) @ Bills (6-6)— Bills QB Taylor hurt his knee LW, would be replaced here by rookie Peterman who threw five picks in one dreadful half vs Chargers in his only NFL start. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-0-1 as home favorites. Indy lost six of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with only win 20-14 (+7) in Houston. Colts won seven of last nine series games, but most of that was in Manning era for Colts; Indy lost 30-7/27-14 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Bills are -8 in turnovers their last five games; they were +14 in their first seven. Last four Indy games stayed under the total.

Seahawks (8-4) @ Jaguars (8-4)— Seahawks won seven of their last nine games; they won last four road games, after losing first two- Seattle is 1-2 as road underdogs. Jacksonville won five of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Titans/Rams. Jaguars allowed 23+ points in their four losses; they’re 8-0 when they allow 17 or less. Seahawks scored 22+ points in six of their last seven games. Seattle is 5-2 against the Jaguars; home side won last four series games. Teams split four games played here. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-4-1. Under is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight games, 5-1 in Jaguars’ last six.

Raiders (6-6) @ Chiefs (6-6)— Teams are in 3-way tie with Chargers atop AFC West. Chiefs lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start; KC is 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-8 points, losing to Steelers/Bills. Chiefs have only one takeaway (-4) in their last four games. Raiders won three of last four games; they’re 2-3 in true road games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-6-20 points, with wins in Nashville, Miami. Chiefs (-3) lost 31-30 in Oakland in Week 7; Raiders gained 505 yards, threw for 417 as they snapped 5-game series skid. Oakland lost its last four games in Arrowhead, by 17-18-6-8 points. Last three Raider games stayed under total, as did three of last four Chief games. KC is 0-4 in games decided by less than 7 points.

Vikings (10-2) @ Panthers (8-4)— Minnesota is on road for third week in a row; they won their last eight games, covered last seven. Vikings are 4-1 in true road games, with only loss 26-9 in Pittsburgh. In their last four games, Minnesota is 27-51 (52.9%) on 3rd down, their opponents 12-46 (26.1%). Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Saints, Eagles, winning by 6-3-24 points. Panthers are 8-4 despite a -7 turnover ratio; they have only 11 takeaways. Carolina scored 11 TD’s on its last 30 drives; eight of them were 75+ yard drives. Vikings won three of last four series games; they won 22-10 in Charlotte LY. Four of last six Viking games went over the total, as have last three Carolina games.

Packers (6-6) @ Browns (0-12)— Winless Cleveland is 3-9 vs spread, 2-3 at home, losing games on Lake Erie by 3-24-3-3-12 points. Browns are -20 in turnovers because in part because Kizer isn’t an NFL-caliber QB; in their last nine games, Cleveland scored 63 points on 21 red zone drives, which is really poor. Green Bay lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-3 on road, 0-1 as road favorite. Packers have been outscored in 2nd half in six of last seven games. Green Bay is 3-1 against the Browns, winning by 23-28-18 points, winning 31-3 in its last visit here, in ’09. All five Cleveland home games stayed under the total; four of last five Packer games went over. Last two weeks, Green Bay opponents converted 17 of 29 third down plays.

49ers (2-10) @ Texans (4-8)— 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start LW, despite not scoring a TD; they were first team in NFL history to allow punt return for a TD, not score a TD, lose turnover battle and still win the game. Niners won two of last three games; they’re 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-3-2-23 points, with win in Chicago. Texans lost five of their last six games; they’re 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 43-16-10 points. In their last three games, Houston lost field position by 13-13-14 yards; they haven’t led at halftime since Watson got hurt. Home side won all three series games; 49ers lost 24-21 in last visits here, in ’09. Despite their win last week, Niners had no TD’s (five FG’s) in five red zone drives.

Redskins (5-7) @ Chargers (6-6)— Chargers are 6-2 in last eight games, winning last three, by 30-22-9 points- they were +10 in turnovers in those games. Bolts won last three home games after losing first three- they’re 1-2 as home favorites. Redskins lost five of last seven games; they are 2-4 on road, beating Rams/Seattle, losing by 9-10-3-24 points. Washington is 7-3 against the Chargers; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points or in OT. Teams split four series games that were played in California. Over is 6-2 in last eight Washington games; six of last seven Charger games stayed under. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 against the spread; AFC West home favorites are 4-9 vs spread.

Jets (5-7) @ Broncos (3-9)— Denver is horrible, losing last eight games (0-8 vs spread); their offense was outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense last week. Broncos are 1-4 vs spread as a dog this year- they lost last three home games, by 13-25-3 points. In its last six games, Denver lost field position by 11+ yards five times. Jets lost five of their last seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG in Cleveland. Jets are 3-1 when allowing 20 or less points. 2-6 if they allow more than 20. Denver won four of last five series games; this is Jets’ first visit here since 2011. Four of last six Denver games went over the total, as did three of last four Jet games. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread, 6-5 on the road.

Titans (8-4) @ Cardinals (5-7)— Tennessee won six of its last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 4 or less points. Titans are 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-4 if they score less than 20. Arizona was outscored 55-24 in 2nd half of its last three games; they’re at home for 3rd week in row. Cardinals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 at home, 2-2-1 as home underdogs. Arizona leads series 6-4; they won last meeting in OT in Nashville in 2013- this is Titans’ first visit to the desert since ’05. Over is 7-4 in Titans’ last 11 games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three. Tennessee outscored its last two opponents 28-6 in 2nd half; in their last six games, Titans allowed an average of only 66.5 rushing yards/game.

Eagles (10-2) @ Rams (9-3)— Eagles have 4-game lead with four weeks left; Rams lead by game in NFC West, and visit Seattle next week. Philly had 9-game win streak snapped LW; Eagles are 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs. Iggles turned ball over five times in last two games, after turning it over only five times in previous seven games. Last week was first time since Week 1 that Philly ran for less than 100 yards. Rams won six of their last seven games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites. LA won field position battle in last seven games; they’re only 9-36 on 3rd down in last three games. Eagles won last four series games; last meeting was in ’14. Rams’ last win was in ’04. Four of last five Eagle games stayed under, as did three of Rams’ last four games.

Cowboys (6-6) @ Giants (2-10)— McAdoo is gone, Manning is back at QB for Giants team that is 1-4 at home, with only win 12-9 in OT over the Chiefs. New York is 1-4 as home underdogs this season. In their last three games, Giants are 10-41 on 3rd down. Cowboys had extra prep time after playing on Thursday LW; they’ve lost three of last four games, are 3-2 on road, losing in Denver, Atlanta, both by 20+ points. Cowboys are 5-3 vs spread as favorites this year, 3-1 on road. Dallas (-4) beat the Giants 19-3 at home in season opener; outrushing them 129-35, winning despite scoring only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Cowboys are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost 27-20/10-7 in last two visits here.

Ravens (7-5) @ Steelers (10-2)— Shazier/Smith-Schuster are both out for Steelers, after tough win in Cincy Monday night. Steelers won their last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 5 or less points. Pitt is 4-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites. Ravens won four of last five games, allowing 11.8 ppg; they’re 2-1-1 as road underdogs. Pitt (-3) spanked Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore in Week 4, running ball for 172 yards; Baltimore turned ball over three times (-2), averaged 3.9 ypp. Ravens are +20 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in losses- they have 11 takeaways in their last three games. Baltimore won four of last five series games; they won two of last three visits here, with an OT win, playoff win. Over is 2-0-1 in last three Steeler games, 7-1 in Ravens’ last eight.

Monday's game
Patriots (10-2) @ Dolphins (5-7)— New England (-16) spanked Miami 35-17 two weeks ago in Foxboro, running ball for 196 yards, outgaining Fish 417-221- it was Patriots’ 5th win in last six series games. NE actually lost three of last four visits to Miami. Patriots won their last eight games, covered their last six; they’re 4-1 as road favorite this year, with only non-cover a 24-17 win at the Jets. Miami snapped a 5-game skid LW; Dolphins are 3-2 at home, losing to Bucs by 10, Raiders by 3- they’re 1-0-1 as home underdogs. Six of last eight Patriot games stayed under; last six Miami games went over. New England ran ball for 196-191 yards last two weeks; they held last three opponents under 5.0 ypa. Pats’ TE Gronkowski is suspended for this game.

2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
12) 7-2-1 1-5 8-8 2-2
13) 1-0 1-0

T) 54-52-2 27-32-2 85-89-2 26-15N

[Admin]

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 7

NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta's last 17 games at home


Sunday, December 10

SAN FRANCISCO @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

CHICAGO @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games

GREEN BAY @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games at home

DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

DALLAS @ NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games

WASHINGTON @ LA CHARGERS
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

TENNESSEE @ ARIZONA
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games at home

NY JETS @ DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets

SEATTLE @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games

PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


Monday, December 11

NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 11 games at home


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[Admin]

Sunday Up!

[Johns1124]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 14 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) San Francisco 49ers +3 (572)

5) Baltimore Ravens +5 (583)

4) Green Bay Packers -3 (619)

3) Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (700)

2) Minnesota Vikings, -2.5 (757)

1) Philadelphia Eagles, +2 (782)

Record of top 6 picks each week: 38-40

[Johns1124]

Essential Week 14 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown averages just 5.5 catches and 62 receiving yards with just three total touchdowns in his 14 career games against the Baltimore Ravens.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38.5)

The Bengals became only the third team leading by 10 or more points entering the fourth quarter to lose a game outright. NFL teams taking a 10-point or greater lead into the final frame are still 87-3 on the season.

Having trouble putting up points on the board in the second half isn’t a new problem for the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 30th in third quarter scoring (2.5 points) and 31st in fourth quarter scoring (3.4 points).

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Bengals favored by six points although a few spots in Vegas went with 5.5 instead. The spread seems to be holding at 6.5 at most locations. The total opened at 37 and has been bet up to 38.5.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
*The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 40.5)

The Vikings’ stopper unit ranks second in scoring defense and total defense after its smothering of the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. Julio Jones caught just two passes for 24 yards a week after hauling in 12 catches for 253 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan totaled his fewest passing yards in a game (173) since 2013 and the Vikings kept the Falcons from hitting double digits.

Minnesota’s offense isn’t as prolific but the unit is being efficient with its scoring opportunities. The Vikings have scored touchdowns in 14 of their last 15 trips inside the red zone.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Vikings listed as 1-point away faves and the line has crept up to a 3-point spread at many shops. The total opened as high as 42 and has moved down to 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
*The over is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 44.5)

It’s not a huge sample but Jimmy Garoppolo improved to 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the three games he’s started as a pro quarterback in the NFL. He would have started against the Texans last season as a member of the Patriots but picked up an injury the previous week against Dolphins. He would have studied the Pats’ game plan for attacking Houston’s defense. That might help him in his preparation for this weekend’s game.

LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as a 1.5-point home fave and has been bet up to 3-point chalk. The total has also moved up from 42.5 to 44.

TRENDS:

*The under is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five games.
*The over is 4-1 in the Texans’ last five home games.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 40.5)

The Browns front-office shakeup shouldn’t affect much on the field – only that head coach Hue Jackson now knows he’s not coaching for his job the rest of the season. Cleveland Browns owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam assured the media Jackson would be the team’s head coach in 2018 despite his abysmal win-loss record (1-27) over the past two years.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as large as 4-point favorites but the spread has dropped in favor of the home team. The total opened at 41 and has come down to 40 at some locations.

TRENDS:

*The Browns are 6-21-1 ATS under head coach Hue Jackson.
*The over is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine road games.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 48.5)

The Chiefs will not have their top cornerback for an important interdivision game against the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City suspended DB Marcus Peters for his late-game antics when he tossed a flag thrown by a game official into the stands.

The Chiefs own one of the worst pass defenses in the league and their second cornerback, Darrelle Revis, was a street free agent a few weeks ago. The Raiders accumulated 417 passing yards in their home win against KC earlier this season.

LINE HISTORY: This spread is kind of in no-man’s land. Offshore and Vegas sportsbooks all opened above the key number (3) but some went high (4.5) and others went low (3.5). The spread is still hopping between 3.5 and 4.5, and it’s hard to tell whether the steam is moving the line up or down.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
*The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The under is 18-7 in the last 25 matchups between these two sides.

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 44)

Arizona’s offense is struggling finding reliable receiving targets outside of future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. The 34-year-old leads the Cards in catches with 82 – which is five more than the rest of the team’s receivers combined. Game planning to slow down a passing attack becomes much easier for opposing teams when there’s only one pass-catching threat on the field.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 3-point away faves and the spread hasn’t moved since. The total opened at 44 and has moved down a half or full point depending on where the book.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.
*The Cards are 5-15-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 41.5)

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott didn’t seem to be bothered by the hand he injured last Thursday against the Redskins. More good news for Dallas backers: Linebacker Sean Lee is expected to his return on Sunday after missing the last three games with a sore hamstring. The Cowboys are 18-4 straight up and 15-7 ATS in the last 22 games he’s suited up and played.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened with the Giants getting six points when it was still thought Geno Smith would be under center for New York. The spread shrunk by 2.5 points once Eli Manning was renamed the starting quarterback.

TRENDS:

*The under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.
*The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+1.5, 41.5)

The Broncos can’t make up their mind as to who their starting quarterback should be moving forward and it’s easy to tell why they are so confused. Denver is second last in pass completion percentage (57.5), third last in yards per attempt (5.7) and second last in interceptions thrown per game (1.5).

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 1-point faves but the line flipped to Jets -1. The total opened at 40.5 and moved up to 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
*The Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.

Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 46.5)

The Chargers opened the season 0-4 and were as large as 50/1 longshots to win the AFC West after Week 4. But thanks to the Bolts’ 6-2 bounce back and the Chiefs’ collapse they’re now +150 to win their division. LA plays at KC next Saturday in a game that could decision who wins the AFC West.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Chargers installed as 6.5-point home chalk and the spread has come down a half point at most shops.

TRENDS:

*The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
*The over is 25-8 in Washington’s last 33 games.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40)

The Seahawks are the most penalized team in the league this season with a good chunk of those flags coming by way of offensive holding (19) and false starts (18). The Jags own the league’s best pass rush 45 sacks despite blitzing on only 17.9 percent of their defensive snaps according to the Florida Times-Union.

LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 3-point home faves but have dropped down a half point to 2.5. The total opened 39 and has gone as high as 40.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games.
*The under is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 48)

The Rams had to alter their practice schedule this week because of the wildfires in surrounding areas. The wind blew smoke in the direction of the Rams’ practice facility on Wednesday forcing the team to do a light walkthrough at a gym on Cal Lutheran University’s campus.

“This time of the year, it actually served us well,” Rams coach Sean McVay told reporters. “We got a lot of good work in, got more reps than we would’ve otherwise than when you just do your walk-through and your normal practice.”

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 1-point faves and many books now list them as 2-point chalk. The total opened as high as 51 and has moved down three points to 48.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The over is 14-4 in the Eagles’ last 18 road games.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)

The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against the Steelers. Keeping All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown in check is a big reason why Baltimore fares so well against its division rival.
Brown is averaging just 5.5 catches for 62 yards in 14 career games against the Ravens – and he’s only found pay dirt three times against the Ravens. That being said, Baltimore will not have its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith, on the field on Sunday because of a PED suspension and an injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 6-point faves but the line dropped to 4.5. The total seems to be settling around 43 and 43.5.

TRENDS:

*The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 AFC North games.
*The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.

[Johns1124]

NFL

Sunday, December 10

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Ravens at Steelers
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Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)

After rallying for a dramatic win to knock off one bitter division rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers return home to face another when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Winners of seven in a row, the Steelers can maintain their tenuous grip on the No. 1 seed in the AFC and wrap up the AFC North Division title with a victory.

Pittsburgh will be without a key player on both sides of the ball -- injured linebacker Ryan Shazier and suspended wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster -- as it vies for a season sweep of the Ravens. "We embrace the challenges of playing in this division -- how tough it is and the intentions of those we compete against," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "We'll be energized by game time on Sunday. We'll be excited about defending our turf against a very good football team." Baltimore, which was dominated at home by Pittsburgh 26-9 in Week 4, has won three in a row and holds a one-game edge for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. "It's a great rivalry," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said of facing the Steelers. "We love playing in it. It's the most physical game we play every single year. It's always tough coming out of the game in that you're going to have a lot of bumps and bruises for sure. We have respect for them."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-0.5) - Steelers (-4) + home field (-3) = Steelers -6.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 6-point home chalk at most shops and money coming in on the road team dropped that number to -4.5. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and briefly went up to 44 before returning to the opening number late in the week.

WEATHER REPORT: Kickoff will see 29 degrees and mostly cloudy - winds at 9mph with a 2% chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:

Ravens - LB C.J. Mosley (Probable, Neck), RB Alex Collins (Probable, Migraine), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable, Back), LB Za'Darius Smith (Questionable, Shoulder), G Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Jimmy Smith (I-R, Achilles).

Steelers - WR Antonio Brown (Probable, Toe), TE Vance McDonald (Probable, Ankle), S Mike Mitchell (Probable, Ankle), LB T.J. Watt (Questionable, Knee), LB Tyler Matakevich (Questionable, Shoulder), LB James Harrison (Questionable, Back), LB Ryan Shazier (Out For Season, Spine), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Eligible Week 15, Suspension), OT Marcus Gilbert (Eligible Week 16, Suspension).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Baltimore has registered three shutouts this season and is allowing an average of 12 points during the three-game winning streak behind an opportunistic defense that leads the league in takeaways (29) and a turnover differential (plus-14). That defense will be missing starting cornerback Jimmy Smith, who was lost for the season after suffering an Achilles injury in last week's 44-20 romp over Detroit. The Ravens have the 31st-ranked passing game in the league, but Joe Flacco threw for a season-high 269 yards and a pair of touchdowns as the team rolled up a season-high point total last week. Running back Alex Collins, who ran for 82 yards on nine carries versus Pittsburgh in Week 4, has rushed for four TDs over the past three games.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U): Pittsburgh will be without Shazier, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions but underwent surgery Wednesday night for a spinal injury suffered in the last-second win at Cincinnati. "We send our thoughts and prayers to Ryan and his family, obviously, but we have a game to prepare for. And we know that's what Ryan wants," said quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who struggled in the first meeting against the Ravens but has 10 touchdowns versus three interceptions in his last three games. Running back Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's leading rusher, gouged Baltimore for 144 yards and two scores on the ground on Oct. 1. Wideout Antonio Brown tops the league in receptions (88) and has six TDs in a streak of three straight 100-yard games.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

* Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

* Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Ravens at a rate of 54 percent and the Under is getting 57 percent of the totals action


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[Admin]

Week Results Week 2 - December
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