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NCAAB 3/16
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golfer4life8
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- 16
NCAAB 3/16
UNC vs Lipscomb OVER 162.5
These two teams flat out fly up and down the court. Yesterday, I had a lean on the Duke/Iona under and once it jumped to 159, it became favorable and I took it. These two teams play much faster than Duke/Iona and as high as this total is, I have it as 3-4 points off here. UNC has a legit chance to get to 100 here, as they will go stride for stride with Lipscomb's frantic pace. UNC has played down in pace down the stretch this year playing Virginia, Miami twice, and Syracuse twice with some Duke sprinkled in there. Duke though, had been playing much better defense late. What I'm getting at is that UNC will enjoy this uptempo game and be happy to get into a shootout here. Both teams should get plenty of good looks throughout on fast-breaks and step into open threes in transition. Even with a blowout looming avoiding the potential for free throws down the stretch, I still think this number is favorable to go over.
TCU -4 vs Syracuse
Before I dive into this game, I'll briefly mention that TCU would have preferred Arizona State here instead, but still draws a good match-up for their style of play against Syracuse. When you look back at that give the Syracuse zone fits, it is always team that can step up and shoot over the defense. TCU is this nearly to a T. TCU is the 8th ranked offense as per KenPoM, and can flat out shoot the rock. With 4 guys who shoot above 40% from three point range, TCU should have plenty of decent looks from 3 against this zone. Add in the extra travel from Syracuse after the overtime game and the fact that Syracuse really runs only 5 deep, we may get a tired bunch here vs a well rested TCU, who's had a week off. I'll lay the small number here.
New Mexico State +5 vs Clemson
These are two similar style teams that play great defense. Clemson is ranked 8th and New Mexico State is ranked 16th as per KenPom in defensive efficiency. My issue with Clemson here is that they really struggle to score and pull away from teams. Clemson struggles to score against average defenses and they are going up against a good one here. New Mexico State on the other side has had quite a season, but yes plays in the WAC and will rarely get respect. This team is stifling on defense, and while they are a team that may struggle to score against Clemson, their defense will keep them in this. The under may have made sense here, I just worry with it being so low, that a close free throw game late pushes it over, so it's a pass. New Mexico State is tough inside on both the offense and defensive glass, so I like the extra opportunities expected close at the rim. This is a big number here against a team in New Mexico State that is getting valued properly by the market. I'll take the 5.
These two teams flat out fly up and down the court. Yesterday, I had a lean on the Duke/Iona under and once it jumped to 159, it became favorable and I took it. These two teams play much faster than Duke/Iona and as high as this total is, I have it as 3-4 points off here. UNC has a legit chance to get to 100 here, as they will go stride for stride with Lipscomb's frantic pace. UNC has played down in pace down the stretch this year playing Virginia, Miami twice, and Syracuse twice with some Duke sprinkled in there. Duke though, had been playing much better defense late. What I'm getting at is that UNC will enjoy this uptempo game and be happy to get into a shootout here. Both teams should get plenty of good looks throughout on fast-breaks and step into open threes in transition. Even with a blowout looming avoiding the potential for free throws down the stretch, I still think this number is favorable to go over.
TCU -4 vs Syracuse
Before I dive into this game, I'll briefly mention that TCU would have preferred Arizona State here instead, but still draws a good match-up for their style of play against Syracuse. When you look back at that give the Syracuse zone fits, it is always team that can step up and shoot over the defense. TCU is this nearly to a T. TCU is the 8th ranked offense as per KenPoM, and can flat out shoot the rock. With 4 guys who shoot above 40% from three point range, TCU should have plenty of decent looks from 3 against this zone. Add in the extra travel from Syracuse after the overtime game and the fact that Syracuse really runs only 5 deep, we may get a tired bunch here vs a well rested TCU, who's had a week off. I'll lay the small number here.
New Mexico State +5 vs Clemson
These are two similar style teams that play great defense. Clemson is ranked 8th and New Mexico State is ranked 16th as per KenPom in defensive efficiency. My issue with Clemson here is that they really struggle to score and pull away from teams. Clemson struggles to score against average defenses and they are going up against a good one here. New Mexico State on the other side has had quite a season, but yes plays in the WAC and will rarely get respect. This team is stifling on defense, and while they are a team that may struggle to score against Clemson, their defense will keep them in this. The under may have made sense here, I just worry with it being so low, that a close free throw game late pushes it over, so it's a pass. New Mexico State is tough inside on both the offense and defensive glass, so I like the extra opportunities expected close at the rim. This is a big number here against a team in New Mexico State that is getting valued properly by the market. I'll take the 5.