** NFL Trends and Index 2018 Week 11 **

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Early bettors hit Rams' odds for NFL clash vs. Chiefs; total a whopping 64
Patrick Everson

Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams atop the NFC with a 9-1 SU mark. Although Los Angeles is just 4-6 ATS, early bettors moved the Rams from -1 to -2 against the Chiefs in Mexico City.

The NFL game everybody has pointed to for weeks is finally on deck, and rightly so, it’s the finale of the Week 11 docket. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that contest and three other notable matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1)

Kansas City is tied with Los Angeles for the best record in the league at 9-1 SU, and Andy Reid’s squad is solo No. 1 against the oddsmakers at 8-2 ATS. That said, the Chiefs couldn’t cover a healthy 16.5-point spread at home in Week 10, coasting past Arizona 26-14.

The Rams bounced back from a loss at New Orleans – their first setback of the season – though they got a stern test in Week 10. Los Angeles (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) held off Seattle 36-31 as a 10-point home chalk.

While pointspreads are generally the most notable betting element, the total in this clash of offensive titans is also a real eye-popper, in a neutral-site Monday night game at high altitude in Mexico City.

“We opened the total at 64. No takers either way yet,” Murray said Sunday evening before addressing the spread. “We opened it Rams -1, and it’s been bet up to Rams -2. This game is a tossup to me. Don’t waste time punting on fourth-and-short or kicking field goals. These teams need touchdowns to keep pace with each other.”

Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of operations for The SuperBook, said while the book doesn't keep such statistics, it is believed that 64 is a record-high opening total.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

Chicago is certainly one of the bigger surprises of the 2018-19 season, sitting atop the NFC North through 10 weeks. The Bears (6-3 SU and ATS) won and cashed their last three games, including Sunday’s 34-22 victory over Detroit as 7.5-point home favorites.

Minnesota, which reached the NFC title game last season, can take over first place in the NFC North with a win at Soldier Field. And the Vikings (5-3-1 SU and ATS) are well-rested, coming off their bye after a 24-9 victory over Detroit as 4.5-point home faves in Week 9.

“This game will go a long way to determining the NFC North,” Murray said. “I expect a lot of two-way write in this game. The number has moved slightly to Vikings +3 (-120), as there has been some early support for the ‘dog.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7)

New Orleans is the hottest team in the league, winning eight in a row SU while cashing seven consecutive times. The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 6-point favorites in Week 10 and put up a 50-plus burger in a 51-14 victory.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) went off as 7.5-point home faves against Dallas in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, but lost outright 27-20.

The SuperBook posted the Eagles-Saints line prior to Philly’s Sunday night loss, and per standard protocol took down the line during the Eagles-Cowboys game. The number will go back up Monday morning.

“This line may go up,” Murray said, noting the Eagles’ setback might require a line adjustment. “The public will be happy to lay the points with New Orleans. The Saints have been very good to bettors recently.”

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

Green Bay also wouldn’t be in the playoffs with its .500 record to this point. The Packers (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) halted a 1-3 SU and ATS skid by dropping Miami 31-12 laying 11 points at home Sunday.

Seattle also has work to do if it hopes to climb back into the postseason picture. The Seahawks (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) put up a valiant fight against the Los Angeles Rams, but came up just short in a 36-31 loss catching 10 points on the road.

“Another really tough road game for the Packers, after they played at the Rams and at the Patriots” in recent weeks, Murray said. “There will be a lot of money both ways, but I anticipate the public mostly backing Green Bay.”

[Admin]

Hot & Not Report

Who's Hot

AFC South teams not named Jacksonville (8-0-1 ATS last three games)

Coming into the year it was not hard to argue with the notion that the Jacksonville Jaguars should have been the favorites to win the AFC South for the second straight year. Jacksonville had just gone to the AFC Championship game last January and outside of some suspect QB play from Blake Bortles, many figured the Jags defense would be able to erase many of those mistakes.

However, it's been quite the opposite in that division of late, as the other three teams in the AFC South have been padding bankrolls rather significantly. Houston was off this past week, but the Texans have gone 3-0 ATS in their most recent three contests and are currently riding a six-game SU winning streak. Indianapolis is now 3-0 SU (2-0-1 ATS) in their last three games, while the Tennessee Titans are a two-point conversion in London away from being on a three-game SU winning streak themselves (3-0 ATS last three).

Those results – combined with Jacksonville's declining play – have made the Jags nothing more than an afterthought for 2018, as this division is a three-horse race now between the Texans, Titans, and Colts. Indianapolis has got arguably the most favorable schedule of the bunch with games against Miami, Dallas, and the Giants left as their only non-division games, so everything is in front of the resurgent Andrew Luck and the Colts. Take care of business within their divisional games, and the Colts could end up making that “worst-to-first” jump when all is said and done.

This week one of those three teams will see their strong runs come to an end as Tennessee and the Colts square off in Indy, but that may be the only thing that can cool off this group. All three of them have very winnable games left outside of division play, and until the point spreads start to catch up with the quality football we've seen from Houston, Tennessee, and Indy of late, they should probably be teams you should only consider betting ON when not playing one another.

Who's Not

AFC North teams not named Pittsburgh (1-8 ATS last three games)

The year started with the Pittsburgh Steelers being the team from the AFC North that had to deal with all sorts of issues, but after Pittsburgh has rung off five straight wins (5-0 ATS), all that talk about their play on the field is long forgotten. Instead, it's the other three teams in Pittsburgh's division that have taken major steps backwards, culminating in the Cincinnati Bengals for some absurd reason protecting Marvin Lewis yet again by firing their DC instead.

Cincinnati's blowout loss at home to the Saints on Sunday was utterly embarrassing, but it's not like it was a one-off either. The Bengals are on a 0-4 ATS run in their last four games as the 4-1 SU start they had this year looks like nothing but a mirage now.

Cleveland managed to right the ship a bit by beating Atlanta on Sunday after they dealt with some tumultuous weeks and coaching changes as well, but the Browns are still on a 1-4 SU run in their past five games, going 1-2 ATS in their last three. Cleveland wasn't expected to do a whole lot this year, so there is some wiggle room with their results, but as just another AFC North squad that is seemingly bowing down to the Steelers this year, the Browns are a tough team to back right now.

And then there is Baltimore. A team like the Bengals who got off to a hot start – especially defensively – but has since fallen off the map. Baltimore was spared any criticism this weekend thanks to being on a bye, but a 0-3 SU and ATS run (1-4 SU and ATS last five) has not been pretty. The Ravens will hope to get back on track by getting some revenge against the dysfunctional “Bungels” this weekend as one of those two teams will snap a losing streak.

[Admin]

Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 15

GREEN BAY at SEATTLE (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack has lost six in a row SU on road and just 1-5 vs. line in those games. Pack “over” 13-5 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and team trends.


Sunday, Nov. 18

CAROLINA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers have covered after their last five SU losses. Lions no covers last three TY. Cam “over” 7-3 last ten.
Tech Edge: Panthers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


DALLAS at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dak was 5-2-1 vs. line away LY and 2-3 in 2018. Falcs “over” 4-1 at home TY, but Cowboys “under” 8-1 last nine away.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.


CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Both slumping (Cin 0-4 L4, Balt 0-3 L3) vs. spread. Bengals have covered 3 of last 4 at M&T Bank Stadium. Flacco 4-6 vs. spread last 10 at home. “Unders” 4-1 last five meetings, and Raves “under” 6-3 TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.


PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags beat Steel twice LY at Heinz Field, but Jags no wins or covers last five TY, and Steel has won and covered 5 in row, Steel “over” 8-3 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Steelers and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.


TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans surprising 6-1 as dog this season! Prior to last season and no Luck, Titans just 1-6-1 last 8 in series. Colts unbeaten last 3 vs. line TY, and tossing out the non-Luck 2017 are “over” 16-10 last 26.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts and “over,” based on extended series and “totals” trends.


HOUSTON at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans have won six straight and covered last three TY. If dog note Houston 6-2 in role with Deshaun at QB. But Skins 6-1 last 7 vs. line at home. Texans “under” 8-3 last 11, Jay Gruden “under” 10-3 last 13.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Texans, if dog, based on “totals” and team trends.


TAMPA BAY at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven TY, but G-Men 0-4 vs. spread at MetLife. Bucs on 8-2 “over” run since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.


DENVER at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Vance Joseph has covered last two away and 3 of last 4 overall, but still 3-9 vs. line away since LY and 5-15-1 last 21 on board. Broncs have only covered 1 of last 5 in series, and “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2017. Bolts “under” 13-6 last 19.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


OAKLAND at ARIZONA (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Gruden 2-7 vs. line TY, and Raiders 4-16-3 last 23 on board since early LY. Oakland 1-9-2 last 12 vs. spread away from home. Cards actually 5-1-1 vs. line last seven TY. Raiders on 13-3 “under” run since mid 2017, Big Red “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Cards, based on “totals” and team trends.


PHILADELPHIA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Birds only 3-8-1 last 12 line reg, season but Pederson 12-7 as dog since 2016. Saints however have won last eight SU and covered last seven TY. Saints “over” 7-2 last nine at Superdome, Birds “over” last five as visitor.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.


MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Vikes 3-1-2 last six on board TY, though Bears 5-1 vs. spread last six at Soldier Field. Minny “over” 7-3 last ten on road.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.


Monday, Nov. 19

KANSAS CITY vs. L.A. RAMS (at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City) (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 8-2 vs. line TY, and McVay just 4-8-1 last 13 vs. spread since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

[Admin]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday. November 15

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GREEN BAY (4 - 4 - 1) at SEATTLE (4 - 5) - 11/15/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday. November 18

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CAROLINA (6 - 3) at DETROIT (3 - 6) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 84-51 ATS (+27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-29 ATS (+24.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DETROIT is 139-176 ATS (-54.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (4 - 5) at ATLANTA (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 4) at BALTIMORE (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (5 - 3 - 1) at CHICAGO (6 - 3) - 11/18/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 50-78 ATS (-35.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 1) - 11/18/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (5 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 116-149 ATS (-47.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at WASHINGTON (6 - 3) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) at NY GIANTS (2 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (7 - 2) - 11/18/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - at ARIZONA (2 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 38-81 ATS (-51.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 6) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 108-78 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday. November 19

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) vs. LA RAMS (9 - 1) - 11/19/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-100 ATS (-44.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-101 ATS (-43.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Admin]

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday. November 15

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Green Bay is 4-7-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 16 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Seattle is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay



Sunday. November 18

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games
Cincinnati is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Cincinnati


Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games at home
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Carolina


Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tennessee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 17 games at home
Indianapolis is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 13 games when playing at home against Tennessee


Dallas Cowboys
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 18 games
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 16 games
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


Houston Texans
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Washington Redskins
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games at home


Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 9-0-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Pittsburgh's last 21 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
Jacksonville is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


Denver Broncos
Denver is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Denver is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home
LA Chargers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Chargers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver


Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland's last 16 games
Oakland is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Oakland


Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games
New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota



Monday. November 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City


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[Admin]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11


Thursday
Packers (4-4-1) @ Seahawks (4-5)— Green Bay is 0-4 on the road this year, 1-1 as AU; they gave up 31 points in both their games on artificial turf this year- they’re 5-11 vs spread in last 16 games on carpet. Since ’16, Pack is 6-5 as a road dog. Seattle is 4-0 this year when it allows 17 or fewer points, 0-4 when allows more; they lost their last two home games. Home side won last seven series games; Packers lost last three visits here, by 3-20-6 points. This is 5th year in row these teams met, with Green Bay winning last three. Home teams are 8-2 in Thursday games this year; Packers are NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread; NFC North AU are 4-2. Last three Packer games stayed under total; under is 6-2 in last eight Seattle games.

Sunday
Panthers (6-3) @ Lions (3-6)— Detroit lost its last three games, allowing 28-24-34 points; their OL allowed 16 sacks the last two games. Lions fired their special teams coach LW; they’re 2-2 at home, 4-11-1 vs spread in last 16 games as road underdogs. Carolina won three of its last four games; they’re 1-3 on road, losing 31-24 in only game on artificial turf. Since ’12, Panthers are 6-14-1 as road favorites. Carolina won six of eight meetings, beating Lions 27-24 LY; Panthers lost two of three visits here, with lone win in ’05. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-7, 2-2 on road; NFC North underdogs are 3-4. Last three Carolina games went over; over is 6-3 in Lions’ games this year.

Cowboys (4-5) @ Falcons (4-5)— Dallas is 4-0 when it scores 20+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t; they’re 1-4 on road, 2-3 as road underdogs- since ’09, they’re 26-16 as road dogs. Cowboys ran ball for 171 yards in Philly in their first game with a new OL coach. Atlanta allowed 20+ points in seven of last eight games; Falcons won three of last four games but lost in Cleveland Sunday- they’re 3-2 at home, 2-3 as HF. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 10-16 as home favorites. Atlanta won four of last six meetings, last of which was in ’15. Teams split last six visits here. NFC East non-divisional AU are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South HF are 3-5. Three of last four Cowboy games, six of last eight Atlanta games went over total.

Bengals (5-4) @ Ravens (4-5)— Rumors are Harbaugh will get fired after season; Flacco’s (hip) status is a ?? here, rookie QB Jackson may start. Bengals fired their DC Monday, so these are two struggling teams fighting for survival. Bengals won first meeting 34-23 (+1) in Week 2; they were +3 in turnovers, had 13-yard edge in field position. Cincy is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning three of last four visits here. Bengals lost last three of last four games, allowing 45-34-51 points in last three games (15 TD’s on last 31 drives); they allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in last four games. Ravens lost four of last five games, losing last two home tilts. Baltimore is 13-3 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games. Under is 6-1 in Ravens’ last seven games.

Vikings (5-3-1) @ Bears (6-3)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Minnesota won six of last seven series games, winning last three by 28-3-13 points; Vikings won two of last three visits here. Minnesota won four of its last five games; they’re 21-9 vs spread in last 30 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Vikings are 2-1-1 on road; under Zimmer, they’re 13-8 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Chicago won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 at home, 4-0 as HF. Bears are +13 in turnovers this year, +6 in last two games, when they outscored opponents 54-7 in first half. Minnesota is 2-7 vs spread in its last nine post-bye games. Five of Bears’ last six games, three of four Minnesota road games went over total.

Eagles (4-5) @ Saints (8-1)— New Orleans won its last eight games, covered last seven; Saints scored 45-51 points in last two games, averaging 9.6/9.8 yds/pass attempt. Saints are 3-1 at home this year, 2-2 as HF; they’re 11-18-1 vs spread in last 30 games as HF. Philly has only one takeaway in its last three games; Eagles lost four of last six games, are 1-2 in true road tilts, with losses by 6-3 points— this is first time this year Philly is an underdog. Under Pederson, Eagles are 5-5 as road dogs. Saints won three of last four series games; last one was in ’15. Philly lost three of last four visits here, last of which was in ’12. NFC East non-divisional AU are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South HF are 3-5. Over is 3-1 in Saints’ home games.

Titans (5-4) @ Colts (4-5)— Titans are 2-0 since their bye, scoring 28-34 points in wins over Cowboys/Patriots- they shut both teams out in 2nd half. Tennessee is 2-2 in true road games, 2-0 as AU; they’ve run ball for 146.3 ypg in last three games, which takes heat off their defense. Tennessee swept series 36-22/20-16 LY, after having lost 16 of previous 17 against the Colts; Titans lost nine of last ten visits here, winning 20-16 LY. Colts won last three games after a 1-5 start, but three teams they beat are combined 7-21. Indy is 2-2 at home, 1-2-1 as HF; they’re 13-11-2 vs spread in last 26 games as HF. Five of last six Indy games went over the total; six of last eight Titans tilts stayed under.

Texans (6-3) @ Redskins (6-3)— Washington is 6-0 when they allow or fewer points, 0-3 when they don’t- they allowed 21-43-38 points in their losses. Redskins 3-2 at home, 1-0 as HU; under Gruden, Skins are 8-8 as home underdogs. Washington is +10 in turnovers in its last five games (12-2). Houston is first team since 1970 to win six games in row after an 0-3 start; they’re 3-2 on road, winning by 3-13-3 points. Texans covered seven of their last eight post-bye games. Houston won last two series games 30-27ot/17-6 after losing first two; teams split two meetings here. AFC South non-divisional AF are 2-3 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 9-5, 3-2 at home. Four of last five Texan games stayed under total;

Buccaneers (3-6) @ Giants (2-7)— Short week for Giants after 27-23 win Monday night, their first win since Week 3. Big Blue is 0-4 at home this year, scoring 14.8 ppg (under 3-1). Tampa Bay lost three in row, six of last seven games; they’ve turned ball over 23 times in those seven games (-21). Bucs won their opener in Superdome, but lost last four road games, giving up 40.3 ppg; under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 9-8-1 as road underdogs, 2-3 this year. Sunday vs Redskins, Bucs scored on only one of five red zone drives, kicking a FG- they lost 16-3. Giants won five of last six series games, losing 28-25 to Tampa Bay LY; Bucs are 1-7 in series games played here, with lone win in ’97, last visit in ’12. Over is 7-2 in Buccaneer games this season.

Broncos (3-6) @ Chargers (7-2)— Chargers won their last six games, covered four of last five; this is their first home game in six weeks. LA is 2-1 at home, 1-2 as HF; under Lynn, they’re 4-5 as home favorites. Denver lost six of last seven games after a 2-0 start; Broncos are 1-3 on road, losing by 13-18-7 points with a win at Arizona. Under Joseph, Denver is 1-6 as a road underdog. Home side won last five series games; Denver lost 21-13/21-0 in last two series games in SoCal. Broncos won 11 of last 14 series games, but split last four. Four of last five Charger games, six of last eight Denver games stayed under total. Denver is 11-3 vs spread in its last 14 post-bye games. Only teams to beat Chargers this year are Chiefs/Rams, both 9-1 teams.

Raiders (1-8) @ Cardinals (2-7)— Arizona is 1-4 at home this year, beating 49ers 18-15 in last home game; Redbirds are 5-2 vs spread in their last seven games- they’re 7-12 in last 19 games as home favorites. Cardinals are -8 in turnovers in their last three games. Oakland lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread); they’re 0-4 in true road games, 1-3 as road underdogs; they’re 2-8-1 in last 11 games when getting points on road. Raiders have only two takeaways in their last five games. Cardinals won last two meetings, by 1-11 points; Raiders won two of three visits to Arizona. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-7 vs spread; NFC West favorites are 5-6. Under is 6-3 in Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Oakland games.

Steelers (6-2-1) @ Jaguars (3-6)— Pittsburgh won/covered its last five games, scoring 35.4 ppg; Steelers are 3-0-1 on road with wins by 3-7-7 points. 12-11 in last 23 games as road favorites. Jaguars lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread); they were outscored 93-19 in first half of those games. Jags scored 20+ points LW for first time since Week 4; they’re 2-2 at home this year, losing by 3-13 points- they’re 8-10 in last 18 games as home dogs. Jacksonville won twice at Heinz Field LY, 45-42 in playoffs after a 30-9 win during regular season; home side lost six of last seven series games. Steelers won four of last five visits here. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 8-4 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-6, 3-1 at home.


Monday
Chiefs (9-1) @ Rams (9-1)— Total of 63.5 is highest-listed total in NFL history. Game was moved to LA because field in Mexico City is messed up. Kansas City won its last four games; LW was only 2nd time this year they scored less than 30 points, first time they averaged less than 7.6 yards/pass attempt. Rams are 5-0 SU at home[ they covered only one of last six games; they’ve given up 27+ points in five of last seven games. Former Chiefs’ CB Peters will be huge in this game, one way or other; he had rough day in Week 9 loss to Saints. Chiefs won last six series games; Rams’ last series win was 16-0 in ’94, last time they faced Montana. Rams practiced in Colorado all week, even after game was put back in LA. Under is 5-2 in Chiefs’ last seven games.

[Admin]

Opening Line Report - Week 11
Joe Williams

It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season and we get the most highly anticipated game of the year, as well as a potential Super Bowl preview. And, the game is being played in Mexico City, of course. How disappointing is that for fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, that neither of these home fan bases get to see this marquee matchup in their home stadium?

On the undercard, the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins is a sleeper game on the Sunday early window. It's a battle of first-place teams in the AFC South and NFC East. Who would have thought this would be an important battle earlier in the season? The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints is also an interesting battle, albeit one of the teams being below .500. It's still the defending champs on the rope trying desperately to stay in the playoff chase.

Thursday, Nov. 15

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49)

There has been very little movement on this game so far, with the Seahawks listed at -2 1/2 across all shops except for Treasure Island, as you can still catch the 'Hawks at -2. For a Thursday game, there has been very little movement on the total, too. The over/under is listed at 49 1/2 at most shops, with Atlantis as the outlier at 49.


Sunday, Nov. 18

Carolina Panthers (-4, 51) at Detroit Lions

The Panthers were on the move last week, quietly sauntering into the Steel City as a very under-the-radar 6-2 record. Carolina had their doors blown off by the Pittsburgh Steelers, coughing up 52 points. That shouldn't be a problem against the Lions, a team struggling in all facets of the game.

The money has been on the Panthers, perhaps since they looked so bad last time out and they have had a couple of extra days to prepare since last Thursday. The Stratosphere opened the line at -3 1/2, but it quickly moved up to -4 to get in line with most other shops. If you're loving the Panthers, you can still try Treasure Island, who had Carolina at -3 as of Monday afternoon.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)

The Cowboys are coming off a potential season-saving win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Falcons had their doors blown off on the road by the lowly Cleveland Browns. Bettors are apparently feeling the 'Boys, down from -3 1/2 to -3 at Jerry's Nugget, while dropped from -4 1/2 to -3 1/2 at Westgate Superbook.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, OFF)

The underdog has connected in seven of the past nine in this series, while the Bengals have posted a 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The line is available offshore at Sportsbook.ag, opening at -3 1/2, bumping up to -4 1/2, and then back down to -4. It isn't available at most shops with the availability of QB Joe Flacco up in the air. The total is also off the board everywhere.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans (-9, 54.5)

The defending champs are on the ropes and heading down to the Crescent City with long odds. This line opened at Caesars/Harrah's at -7 1/2, quickly moving up to -8 1/2 during the course of the day on Monday. Westgate opened at -7 and quickly moved to -7 1/2, but if you are feeling the Saints you can still catch them at a good number.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48)

A couple of weeks ago this game didn't look terribly attractive, but the Titans have rattled off two impressive wins in a row, while the Colts are on a three-game heater. Tennessee heads into this one with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark over their past six inside the division, although they're just 19-42-2 ATS in the past 65 against AFC foes overall. The Colts are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 inside the division, but 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 home games against teams with a winning road mark. TI opened this one at -1 1/2, moving up to 2.

Many other shops opened this game at -3, and it's down to -2 1/2 or -2. People are liking the Titans early on, but you can expect money to pour in on the Colts at some point.

Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins

The line of this game has settled into the -3 neighborhood at most shops, although TI was offering it up at -2 1/2 as of late Monday afternoon if you have a early strong lean toward Houston. As far as the total, it has tumbled slightly from 43 to 42 1/2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (PK, 51)

The Bucs have settled on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick on the starting job yet again this week, while the Giants are coming off a rare win on Monday night in San Francisco. The line bounced back and forth at most shops from Giants -1 to pick 'em. There is likely to be a little belief in the Giants after their win on Monday, but bettors might not be all-in since they still have just two wins and they're playing on a short week.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5)

After Week 10, the Bolts picked up another double-digit win on the road while continuing to fly under the radar in their own city, with the Rams garnering most of the headlines.

This line has been a flat seven at all but one shop, TI, which is offering the Chargers at -6 1/2. Denver heads in just 2-6 ATS in the past eight against winning teams and 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division.

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 40.5)

The Raiders and Cardinals have each had some difficulty this season, and they'll be picking early in the 2019 NFL Draft. After giving the Kansas City Chiefs a pretty good shot last week, bettors are liking the Cards. Atlantis had the Cards -3 1/2, moving up to -4. The line toggled between -4, -3 1/2 and back up to -4 at Caesars, while if you like the Raiders check out TI, who has the line at -4 1/2.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Steelers cannot seem to stop anyone on defense, although they're clicking on offense while getting past the Le'Veon Bell drama and just concentrating on what they have in house right now. The Jaguars have been a huge disappointment, opening strong, but internal problems and injuries have killed any early-season momentum.

Westgate Superbook opened this game at -3 1/2, quickly shooting up to -5 1/2 in less than 24 hours. No one is feeling the Jags at home. The only place the line actually dropped was Atlantis, going from -6 to -5 1/2.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3, 45.5)

This NFC North battle has been flexed into the Sunday night game, and it should be a good black and blue battle. If you're feeling the Bears, check out Southpoint, as they're offering Chicago at -2 1/2. TI opened it up at just -1 1/2, slowly moving to -2. You can expect plenty of movement on this one.


Monday, Nov. 19

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 63.5)

The Chiefs and Rams currently has a total higher than any line, since lines have been tracked, in the history of the NFL. Vegas is expecting a shootout, or tiroteo if you like since it's in Mexico.

The total actually opened at 64 at Westgate and fell slightly to 63 1/2 to get in line with most other shops. They also opened the Rams at just -1, quickly moving up to -2 1/2 during the course of 20 hours. As of Monday night, most everywhere had the Rams at that line. However, this game is likely to see a ton of movement since it's a marquee game on a Monday night. Expect a lot of attention and perhaps the largest handle of the season for any one game.

[Admin]

Games to Watch - Week 11

The top teams in each of the conferences are starting to pull away from the pack, but there are still plenty of teams below the top two spots in the AFC and NFC with a legitimate shot at a playoff spot.

The final few weeks of the season will sort out the men from the boys, as those teams currently sitting on the edge will either step up or fade away. There are a lot of important games on the NFL Week 11 schedule, starting on Thursday night with a crucial NFC match-up.

Let’s take a closer look at four games that should really be required viewing in Week 11.

Green Bay Packers (+2½ +100) at Seattle Seahawks (-2½ -120)

Both of these teams are currently sitting outside the playoffs looking in, but both are also close enough that a solid finish to the season could get them into the postseason. The Packers have been surprisingly average this season, thanks in large part to their inability to win on the road, where they are currently at 0-4. Ordinarily, that would mean trouble with a trip to Seattle, but the Seahawks are also a surprise, going just 1-2 in their own building this season. This is a crucial game for both teams and one that is likely to go down to the wire. I may change my mind in the next couple of days, but right now I am on the Packers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5½) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5½)

When the playoffs began last season, we all just sort of sat back and waited for the inevitable meeting between the Steelers and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. That never panned out, though, as Jacksonville went into Heinz Field and came away with a stunning victory in the divisional round. The Steelers will be out looking for revenge this weekend, and given how they have been playing, it is going to be tough to bet against them. The Jags know that their season is likely done with a loss, so expect a fight, although one that they will ultimately lose.

Philadelphia Eagles (+9 +115) at New Orleans Saints (-9 -105)

Could this prove to be the week where we see a changing of the guard in the NFC? The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles are on the brink of elimination from playoff contention, while the New Orleans Saints are arguably the best that the conference has to offer. The Saints have been perfect since losing to Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the season, while the Eagles have struggled to find any sort of consistency, and they are now sitting at 4-5. Given the state of things in the conference, it’s not being to dramatic to suggest that a loss here could do them in. I like the Saints to get that win.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2½) at Los Angeles Rams (-2½)

After a slew of mediocre Monday night match-ups, we finally get an absolute beauty in Week 11. The Chiefs have the best record in the AFC, while the Rams are right up there in the NFC. Both of these teams are dynamic on the offensive side of the football, which may explain why the point total has been set at over 60 points for this one. We are in for a good old-fashioned slugfest here, as well as a game that may come down to who gets the ball last. I’m giving a slight edge to the Rams in a game that's expected to be played in Mexico City.

[Admin]

NFL Underdogs: Week 11 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Ever wonder how the NFL schedules bye weeks? Yeah, me neither. But for those now interested, I’ll do you a favor and save you some dry-as-toast reading.

There is a “science” behind it, which involves the previous season’s schedule, opponents’ calendars, and what markets a team’s games occur in between Week 5 and Week 12…

Huh? Wha? Sorry, nodded off there for a sec.

If there’s one thing about bye weeks you should concern yourself with, it's that they’ve given rested teams an advantage when it comes to covering the spread in recent years (teams off a bye cover at almost 56 percent since 2015), especially if those teams coming off a bye are playing on the road.

Since 2015, road teams feeling fresh off the bye week are 39-19-1 ATS (67 percent), including a red-hot 9-3-1 ATS this season. It’s in this spot that we find the Minnesota Vikings, coming off the bye and playing in Chicago as 3-point underdogs in Week 11.

The Vikings suffered through a bit of an identity crisis in the first half of the schedule, watching their top-ranked defense bow and flex under the will of opposing offenses. However, that stop unit started to look like its old self last week against the rival Lions, holding Detroit to just nine points on 209 yards and sacking quarterback Matt Stafford 10 times.

Defensive end Everson Griffen was the foundation of that 2017 defense and has wasted little time returning as its beating heart since taking a month away to address his mental health. Griffen played 52 snaps and had 1.5 sacks in the win over Detroit and now sets his sights on young Bears QB Mitch Trubisky, who has kept his jersey fairly clean during Chicago’s three-game winning streak.

He's been sacked only four times in the last three contests, with a QB rating north of 109 and a TD/INT count of six-to-one during that stretch. Don’t get me wrong; Trubisky has looked great, but since Week 3, he’s faced defenses ranked 18th, 19th, 20th, 25th, 26th, and 28th. In his lone matchup with legit stop unit since September 23, Trubisky was 12 for 20 passing for 132 yards, one touchdown and one interception versus Buffalo (first in yards allowed) – a game in which the Bears defense did a good chunk of the scoring.

This is a big game for the Vikings, especially if they want to keep pace with the NFC’s elite. Minnesota has an advantage over all those other contenders, possessing a legitimate defense that will win games in January. And that well-rested defense wakes up in the Windy City Sunday.

Pick: Minnesota +3

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, OTB)

Cincinnati’s defense has looked bad, like “first snow storm of the year and you still have your summer tires on” kind of bad. Then again so has the quarterback situation in Baltimore.

The Ravens are being very polite with Joe Flacco following the team’s three-game slide and tumultuous bye week. Using his hip injury - and not his piss-poor play - for a reason to start someone else under center in Week 11. Winning a Super Bowl will lend you that level of discretion.

That leaves the Ravens with rookie QB Lamar Jackson (who missed practice with a stomach bug) or the refurbished Robert Griffin III – neither of which command this kind of spread. Books that have posted this game have gone as high as Ravens -5.5 for what is still a heated AFC North rivalry.

The Bengals have been blown away in recent weeks, allowing an average of 39.5 points in their last four games. However, those were against fire-balling offenses like Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and New Orleans – four of the Top 5 teams in terms of yardage. Baltimore isn't on the same planet as those teams - regardless of who's taking the snaps.

Cincy’s defense could return linebacker Vontaze Burfict and corner Darqueze Dennard. That D is also now under the command of head coach Marvin Lewis, after defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was let go and former Browns head coach Hue Jackson – still smoldering from his firing in Week 9 – was brought aboard to help run the show.

The Bengals did a good job versus the Ravens in Week 2, winning 34-23 as 1-point home chalk, sacking Flacco three times, recording two interceptions, and forcing two fumbles while recovering one. Cincinnati plays divisional foes tough and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus Baltimore.

Pick: Cincinnati +5.5

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 46.5)

I can’t wait to bet against the L.A. Chargers in the playoffs, but until then I’ll settle fading them in Week 11.

The Bolts have built a six-game winning streak on the backs of broken teams, with a resume that includes “opponents” like Oakland (twice), Tennessee, Cleveland, and San Francisco. Los Angeles also has a win over Buffalo, putting the cherry on top of a sundae that is 86 percent whipped cream.

The possible return of Joey Bosa could give this defense some teeth, but the Chargers have big issues on the other side of the ball, especially when it comes to covering this spread which is creeping up above a touchdown.

Los Angeles is scoring TDs on just 56 percent of its red zone trips this season, and that’s dropped to 33 percent over the past three games. Another flashing warning light when it comes to this team: it can’t kick. The Bolts have blown boots in their blood, making only 78 percent of field goal attempts on the year. Kicker Caleb Sturgis was axed two weeks ago, leaving kicking duties to promoted practice squader Michael Badgley.

Denver has gone 3-1 ATS the last four weeks playing some tough teams and has long been a thorn in the side of the Chargers franchise – in San Diego and L.A. – covering in five of its last seven roadies versus the Bolts.

Pick: Denver +7.5

Last week: 2-0-1 ATS
Season: 21-8-1 ATS

[Admin]

Total Talk - Week 11
Chris David

Week 10 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-6 last week it’s and fair to say that the results were never in doubt in a dozen of the games. Total bettors riding the ‘over’ in the Patriots-Titans looked good at halftime with Tennessee ahead 24-10 but New England was shutout 10-0 in the second-half. Another tough outcome took place in Philadelphia as Dallas led 13-3 at halftime and the ‘under’ (45 ½) looked like the right side. Sure enough, the pair combined for 31 points in the final 30 minutes and helped bettors chasing SNF ‘over’ tickets. Through 10 weeks, we’re looking at a stalemate (74-74) and that back-and-forth action shows you how good the oddsmakers have been this season.

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half

Week 10 8-6 9-5 5-9
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 74-74 77-71 68-76-4

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 10 2-2 5-1 1-0 1-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 23-18 20-24 16-10 6-2

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at Atlanta: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Tennessee at Indianapolis: 48 to 50 ½
Denver at L.A. Chargers: 47 to 45 ½
Philadelphia at New Orleans: 54 ½ to 56 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at Atlanta: Over 91%
Oakland at Arizona: Under 85%
Denver at L.A. Chargers: Under 82%
Philadelphia at New Orleans: Over 80%
Kansas City at L.A. Rams: Over 76%

Divisional Matchups

If you’re a believe that all things balance out in the long run, then you could’ve cleaned up last week by playing the ‘over’ in the divisional games. After watched the ‘under’ go 10-2 the last three weeks and 23-15 on the season, the ‘over’ bounced back with a 5-1 (86%) mark last Sunday.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: As of Saturday morning, no numbers posted on this game and the quarterback issue for the Ravens is up in the air. I can’t imagine Baltimore moving the football if Joe Flacco doesn’t go and Cincinnati certainly showed how limited it is offensively without wide receiver A.J. Green. With healthy players, the ‘over’ went 2-0 last season but the ‘under’ was on a 3-0-1 run prior to those results.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The total split last season but that was without Colts QB Andrew Luck playing. Make a note that the signal caller is 9-0 in his career against the Titans and Indy is averaging 28.7 PPG in those contests. Something has to give here knowing Tennessee is 2-0 to the ‘under’ in divisional games while Indy is 2-0 to the ‘over.’

Danver at L.A. Chargers: If you like to play home-away trends and tendencies for head-to-head matchups, then you may lean to the ‘under’ in this matchup. The last four games played in California (LA, San Diego) have gone ‘under’ while the ‘over’ has cashed in the previous four in Colorado.

Minnesota at Chicago: (See Below)

Fifty Something

Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have watched the ‘over’ go 20-19 this season. There are four games currently in this neighborhood for Week 11 and that includes the sixty-something number posted on the MNF matchup.

Listed below are the games with totals listed in the fifties and sixties for Week 11 along with their ‘over/under’ record listed in parenthesis and some notable trends too.

Tennessee (3-6) at Indianapolis (6-3): The Colts have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home and the Indy offense (30.8 PPG) has been very sharp.

Tampa Bay (7-2) at N.Y. Giants (4-5): Something has to give in this matchup with New York only averaging 14.8 PPG at home this season, which has led to a 3-1 ‘under’ record. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 5-0 to the ‘over’ on the road and the defense (40.2) has been atrocious in those games.

Philadelphia (4-5) at New Orleans (5-4): Three of the four ‘over’ tickets for the Birds came on the road and the one ‘under’ took place in London. The Saints own a 3-1 ‘over’ mark at the Superdome behind the perfect total combo – a great offense (37.2 PPG) and a weak defense (30 PPG).

Kansas City (5-5) at L.A. Rams (5-5): Chiefs stronger ‘over’ team (4-1) on the road and the offense (36.8 PPG) has been better as well. The Rams flipped their total results from last season, when they posted more ‘over’ tickets on the road. This season, the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 at the Coliseum.

Bye Bye Rust

The ‘over’ has gone 14-6 (70%) in teams playing off the ‘bye’ this season and while we saw a couple clubs struggle offensively last week, rested units are averaging 25.8 points per game so far. Four teams will be playing with rest this week and two of the clubs have shown solid numbers with their coaches.

Bengals at Ravens: As noted above, QB issues key for Baltimore but John Harbaugh is 8-2 both SU and ATS in his last 10 games with rest and the defense has only allowed 13.7 PPG during this span.

Texans at Redskins: Houston’s Bill O’Brien is another coach (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) who has put up solid numbers off the bye. The offense has averaged 23.8 PPG and what’s impressive is that all four of those games were on the road.

Broncos at Chargers
Vikings at Bears

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ posted a 3-0 record in the primetime games last week and we had another Thursday ‘over’ connect this week already as the Seahawks outlasted the Packers 27-24 at home. Including those four results, the ‘over’ sits at 18-15 on the season in games played under the lights.

Minnesota at Chicago: The Vikings captured a pair of ugly wins over the Bears (23-10, 20-17) last season and those totals ranged from 38 to 41. This week’s number is higher (44 ½) and that’s a little surprising knowing Chicago (319 YPG) and Minnesota (322 YPG) are ranked fourth and fifth respectively in total defense. However, the Vikings offense (30 PPG) has been better away from home and the Bears enter this game on a 5-1 ‘over’ run. Chicago’s offense (34.3 PPG) has been on fire during this stretch but duplicating those numbers won’t be as easy versus Minnesota. Make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 on Sunday Night Football this season.

Kansas City at L.A. Rams: It’s rare to see NFL totals this high (63 ½) but based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs (35.3 PPG) and Rams (33.5 PPG) offensively, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here plus neither team is great defensively. Bettors daring to take the low side could make a case that the Rams have been suspect against the run recently and the Chiefs may follow the blueprint and try to grind out a win. I’m expecting both teams to get at least five scores and the ratio of touchdowns to field goals will likely decide this result. Kansas City hasn’t settled (41 TDs, 16 FGs) for three points often but we have seen Los Angeles (36 TDs, 21 FGs) stall a little bit more offensively. The Chiefs are averaging 32 PPG in two matchups vs. the NFC this season while the Rams have posted 30.3 PPG in three wins against the AFC West. For what it’s worth, the ‘under’ is 3-0 in the past three encounters in this limited non-conference series.

Fearless Predictions

I was greedy last week and take full blame for trying to double-up on Arizona in its game at Kansas City. The Cardinals only managed 14 points and the defense played surprisingly well. That outcome put us in the red ($220) for the weekend but we’re still ahead ($510) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-N.Y. Giants 52 ½
Best Under: Denver-L.A. Chargers 45 ½
Best Team Total: Under 23 ½ Chica