** NCAA Trends and Index - Bowl Season**

Post by **Admin** » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:35 pm

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Post by **Admin** » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:35 pm

LSU favorites versus unbeaten UCF, and opening lines for every College Football Bowl Game
Patrick Everson

The LSU Tigers go into their Fiesta Bowl matchup with Central Florida as 7.5-point favorites, but the public might lean towards the unbeaten Golden Knights to cover.

While everyone is still buzzing about – and arguing over – the College Football Playoff selections, it’s worth pointing out that there are a bevy of other intriguing bowl matchups. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four of those contests, and gets you the opening and current lines for every other bowl game, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Fiesta Bowl

No. 11 Louisiana State Tigers vs. No. 8 Central Florida Knights (+7.5)

Central Florida hasn’t lost since its bowl game two years ago, going 13-0 SU and 8-4-1 ATS last season, and sitting at 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS this year. The Knights beat Memphis 56-41 as 1-point home favorites in the American Athletic Conference championship game.

That gave UCF a second straight shot at an SEC team in bowl season, as the Knights upset Auburn in last season’s Peach Bowl.

Louisiana State finished the regular season in a monster of a game, albeit a loss. The Tigers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) went off as 3-point underdogs at Texas A&M and pushed the contest to seven overtimes before falling 74-72.

“We purposely set this line just above a touchdown to give the people something to think about,” Wilkinson said of opening LSU -7.5 for this New Year’s Day game. “This will be the toughest team, by far, that UCF has played all year, but I think the public will like an undefeated team getting more than a touchdown. I’m anticipating that the line will come down to -7 pretty soon.”

Rose Bowl

No. 9 Washington Huskies vs. No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-5.5)

Ohio State is feeling much like a bridesmaid after winning the Big Ten title, but finishing sixth in the CFP rankings and missing the four-team playoff. The Buckeyes (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) dumped Northwestern 45-24 laying 16.5 points in the conference title game in Indianapolis.

Washington upended Washington State on the road in Week 13 to snare a spot in the Pac-12 title game, then took full advantage of it. The Huskies (10-3 SU, 4-9 ATS) slogged past Utah 10-3 giving 4.5 points in Santa Clara, Calif., to earn a spot in this New Year’s Day game.

“This line feels a little too high to me. We haven’t seen much action on it yet, but I think the sharps will like Washington,” Wilkinson said. “The public usually likes Ohio State, especially when the Buckeyes are the higher-ranked team. However, look for this line to drop to 4.5 or even 4 throughout the next couple of weeks.”

Sugar Bowl

No. 15 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-11)

Georgia is also feeling left out this week, finishing one spot out of the CFP, a year after reaching the national championship game. The Bulldogs (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) went into the Southeastern Conference title game as 11-point underdogs to Alabama, led 28-14 in the third quarter, but couldn’t score again and ended up losing 35-28.

Texas won its last three regular-season games to land a spot in the Big 12 final last weekend. The Longhorns (9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) then came up short against Oklahoma, losing 39-27 as 9.5-point neutral-site pups at AT&T Stadium.

“Texas just lost to Oklahoma, and I think Georgia is quite a bit better than the Sooners,” Wilkinson said. “That said, I think Georgia -11 is a little high. I think the wiseguys will like Texas plus the points and that the line will drop some.”

This Big 12-SEC clash wraps up the New Year’s Day bowls, with an 8:45 p.m. ET start.

Gator Bowl

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies (-4.5)

Texas A&M, which gave CFP selectee Clemson all it could handle back in September, finished the regular season on a three-game win streak. In the finale, the Aggies (8-4 SU and ATS) outlasted LSU in seven overtimes, winning 74-72 as 3-point home favorites.

North Carolina State won its last three games and four of five to cap the regular season. The Wolfpack (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) went out of conference to finish up, whomping East Carolina 58-3 as 24.5-point home faves.

“We took a sharp bet on A&M (Monday) and moved the line to -5,” Wilkinson said of action on this Dec. 31 matchup. “The Aggies are coming off an epic win against LSU, and I think they’re going to carry that momentum into this one. N.C. State has been playing well lately, but the Wolfpack haven’t been facing teams as good as A&M.”

The rest of the 39-game bowl slate:

Cure Bowl, Dec. 15: Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette – Open: +3.5; Current: +3.5
New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 15: North Texas vs. Utah State – Open: -9.5; Current: -10
Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 15: Arizona State vs. No. 21 Fresno State – Open: -4.5; Current: -4.5
New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 15: Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State – Open: -7.5; Current: -7
Camellia Bowl, Dec. 15: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern – Open: +1; Current: +1
Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 18: Northern Illinois vs. Alabama-Birmingham – Open: -1; Current: -1
Frisco Bowl, Dec. 19: Ohio vs. San Diego State – Open: +3; Current: +3
Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 20: Marshall vs. South Florida – Open: +2; Current: +1.5
The Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl, Dec. 21: Florida International vs. Toledo – Open: -6; Current: -6
Potato Bowl, Dec. 21: Brigham Young vs. Western Michigan – Open: +12.5; Current: +12.5
Birmingham Bowl, Dec. 22: Wake Forest vs. Memphis – Open: -3.5; Current: -3.5
Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 22: Houston vs. Army – Open: -3; Current: -3
Dollar General Bowl, Dec. 22: Buffalo vs. Troy – Open: +3; Current: +3
Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 22: Louisiana Tech vs. Hawaii – Open: -2; Current: -2
First Responder Bowl, Dec. 26: Boston College vs. No. 25 Boise State – Open: -3; Current: -3
Quick Lane Bowl, Dec. 26: Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech – Open: -4.5; Current: -4.5
Cheez-It Bowl, Dec. 26: Texas Christian vs. California – Open: Pick; Current: Pick
Independence Bowl, Dec. 27: Duke vs. Temple – Open: -3; Current: -3
Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 27: Miami vs. Wisconsin – Open: +3; Current: +4
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27: Vanderbilt vs. Baylor – Open: +5; Current: +4
Music City Bowl, Dec. 28: Auburn vs. Purdue – Open: +4; Current: +4
Camping World Bowl: No. 20 Syracuse vs. No. 16 West Virginia – Open: -7; Current: -7
Alamo Bowl: No. 24 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Washington State – Open: -3.5; Current: -3.5
Peach Bowl, Dec. 29: No. 10 Florida vs. No. 7 Michigan – Open: -7.5; Move: -7.5
Belk Bowl, Dec. 29: South Carolina vs. Virginia – Open: +4; Current: +4
Arizona Bowl, Dec. 29: Arkansas State vs. Nevada – Open: Pick; Current: Pick
Cotton Bowl, Dec. 29: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Clemson – Open: -11.5; Current: -11.5
Orange Bowl, Dec. 29: No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Alabama – Open: -14; Current: -14
Military Bowl, Dec. 31: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati – Open: -6; Current: -6
Sun Bowl, Dec. 31: Pittsburgh vs. Stanford – Open: -6.5; Current: -6.5
Redbox Bowl, Dec. 31: Michigan State vs. Oregon – Open: -2; Current: -2.5
Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31: No. 23 Missouri vs. Oklahoma State – Open: +8; Current: +8
Holiday Bowl, Dec. 31: No. 22 Northwestern vs. No. 17 Utah – Open: -6.5; Current: -6.5
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1: Iowa vs. No. 18 Mississippi State – Open: -6; Current: -6
Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1: No. 14 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Penn State – Open: -6; Current: -6

Post by **Admin** » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:36 pm

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 15

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NORTH TEXAS (9 - 3) vs. UTAH ST (10 - 2) - 12/15/2018, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TULANE (6 - 6) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (7 - 6) - 12/15/2018, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA ST (7 - 5) vs. FRESNO ST (11 - 2) - 12/15/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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E MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. GA SOUTHERN (9 - 3) - 12/15/2018, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GA SOUTHERN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
E MICHIGAN is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIDDLE TENN ST (8 - 5) vs. APPALACHIAN ST (10 - 2) - 12/15/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Tuesday, December 18

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N ILLINOIS (8 - 5) vs. UAB (10 - 3) - 12/18/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, December 19

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OHIO U (8 - 4) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (7 - 5) - 12/19/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, December 20

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MARSHALL (8 - 4) at S FLORIDA (7 - 5) - 12/20/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MARSHALL is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
MARSHALL is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a bowl game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, December 21

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FLA INTERNATIONAL (8 - 4) vs. TOLEDO (7 - 5) - 12/21/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BYU (6 - 6) vs. W MICHIGAN (7 - 5) - 12/21/2018, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 22

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WAKE FOREST (6 - 6) vs. MEMPHIS (8 - 5) - 12/22/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (8 - 4) vs. ARMY (9 - 2) - 12/22/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ARMY is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (10 - 3) vs. TROY (9 - 3) - 12/22/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TROY is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
TROY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOUISIANA TECH (7 - 5) at HAWAII (8 - 5) - 12/22/2018, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
HAWAII is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, December 26

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BOSTON COLLEGE (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 3) - 12/26/2018, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 147-107 ATS (+29.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 147-107 ATS (+29.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 92-63 ATS (+22.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) vs. GEORGIA TECH (7 - 5) - 12/26/2018, 5:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TCU (6 - 6) vs. CALIFORNIA (7 - 5) - 12/26/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 21-44 ATS (-27.4 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, December 27

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DUKE (7 - 5) vs. TEMPLE (8 - 4) - 12/27/2018, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (7 - 5) vs. WISCONSIN (7 - 5) - 12/27/2018, 5:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VANDERBILT (6 - 6) vs. BAYLOR (6 - 6) - 12/27/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, December 28

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AUBURN (7 - 5) vs. PURDUE (6 - 6) - 12/28/2018, 1:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SYRACUSE (9 - 3) vs. W VIRGINIA (8 - 3) - 12/28/2018, 5:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a bowl game since 1992.
W VIRGINIA is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
W VIRGINIA is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IOWA ST (8 - 4) vs. WASHINGTON ST (10 - 2) - 12/28/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
IOWA ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 29

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ARKANSAS ST (8 - 4) vs. NEVADA (7 - 5) - 12/29/2018, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLORIDA (9 - 3) vs. MICHIGAN (10 - 2) - 12/29/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
FLORIDA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
MICHIGAN is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S CAROLINA (7 - 5) vs. VIRGINIA (7 - 5) - 12/29/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
S CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OKLAHOMA (12 - 1) vs. ALABAMA (13 - 0) - 12/29/2018, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 81-56 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ALABAMA is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
ALABAMA is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NOTRE DAME (12 - 0) vs. CLEMSON (13 - 0) - 12/29/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 31

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VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 6) vs. CINCINNATI (10 - 2) - 12/31/2018, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 6) vs. STANFORD (8 - 4) - 12/31/2018, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MICHIGAN ST (7 - 5) vs. OREGON (8 - 4) - 12/31/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OREGON is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
OREGON is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OREGON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSOURI (8 - 4) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (6 - 6) - 12/31/2018, 3:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NORTHWESTERN (8 - 5) vs. UTAH (9 - 4) - 12/31/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 122-89 ATS (+24.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
UTAH is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
UTAH is 46-22 ATS (+21.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NC STATE (9 - 3) vs. TEXAS A&M (8 - 4) - 12/31/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NC STATE is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Tuesday, January 1

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IOWA (8 - 4) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4) - 1/1/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KENTUCKY (9 - 3) vs. PENN ST (9 - 3) - 1/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LSU (9 - 3) vs. UCF (12 - 0) - 1/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
UCF is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (10 - 3) vs. OHIO ST (12 - 1) - 1/1/2019, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 190-146 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 190-146 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against Pac Twelve conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 120-87 ATS (+24.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OHIO ST is 96-70 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS (9 - 4) vs. GEORGIA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2019, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a neutral field over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Post by **Admin** » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:37 pm

NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 15

Tulane Green Wave
Tulane is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Tulane is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 6 games
Tulane is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
Tulane is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana-Lafayette is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tulane
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tulane

North Texas Mean Green
North Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
North Texas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of North Texas's last 10 games
North Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
North Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Texas's last 5 games on the road
Utah State Aggies
Utah State is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Utah State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Utah State is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Utah State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Utah State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah State's last 12 games

Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games
Fresno State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 5 games
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia Southern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Georgia Southern is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Eastern Michigan's last 9 games

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Middle Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Middle Tennessee's last 6 games
Middle Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Middle Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State is 11-3-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Appalachian State is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Appalachian State's last 5 games
Appalachian State is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Tuesday, December 18

NIU Huskies
Northern Illinois is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Northern Illinois is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Northern Illinois's last 13 games
UAB Blazers
Alabama-Birmingham is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Alabama-Birmingham is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games

Wednesday, December 19

San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego State is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
San Diego State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego State's last 9 games
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Ohio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games

Thursday, December 20

Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Marshall is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marshall's last 5 games
Marshall is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Marshall is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Marshall's last 7 games on the road
USF Bulls
South Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
South Florida is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
South Florida is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
South Florida is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

Friday, December 21

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Post by **Admin** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:07 am

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 15
New Mexico Bowl
Underdogs covered five of last six New Mexico Bowls. Utah State won this bowl four years ago, but lost 23-21/26-20 in last two bowls. Aggies are 10-2, losing first/last game; they were held 100 YR in both losses. State is 9-3 vs spread in last dozen games as a favorite. North Texas is in its 3rd straight bowl; they lost 38-31/50-30 in bowls last two years. Favorites covered their last five bowl games. UNT is 9-3 this year; their last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points. Under Littrell, Mean Green is 10-9 as an underdog, 1-1 this year. Mountain West teams are 3-4 in this bowl last seven years. Under is 10-1 in UNT games this season; over is 8-3-1 in Utah State games. Last seven years, MW teams are 13-11 vs spread when playing a C-USA opponent.

Cure Bowl, Orlando
Tulane is in its first bowl since 2013; they had to beat a poor Navy team 29-28 in finale just to get to 6-6 and be bowl-eligible. Green Wave beat ULL 41-39 (-5) in OT in last meeting two years ago. Tulane won four of its last five games overall; they’re 1-4 vs spread as a favorite this year, after being 7-4 last two years. UL-Lafayette is in 6th bowl in last nine years, but first one that wasn’t in New Orleans; Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Tulane allowed 31+ in only one of its last six games. Dogs won two of three Cure Bowls, with Sun Belt team winning last two. Last five years, Sun Belt teams are 9-7 vs spread when playing an AAC team. Five of last six Tulane games, four of last five ULL games stayed under total.

Las Vegas Bowl
Fresno State won Mountain West title game in Boise Dec 1st; only 14 days between games for them. Underdogs won last two Las Vegas bowls; favorites are 4-3 vs spread in last seven. Pac-12 teams are 4-2 vs spread in last six visits here. Herm Edwards is coaching his first bowl game; ASU’s star WR Harry is skipping this game so he doesn’t get hurt- he is headed to NFL. ASU won four of its last five games; they’re 4-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. Sun Devils are 2-3 in last five bowls, losing 43-42/52-31 in last two. Bulldogs snapped 4-game bowl losing streak when they won Hawai’i Bowl 33-27 LY. Since 2012, Mountain West teams are 4-6 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team. Eight of last nine Fresno games stayed under the total.

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Eastern Michigan is in just its third bowl game ever, 2nd since 1985; they lost Bahamas Bowl 24-20 to Old Dominion two years ago. Eagles won five of their last six games after a 2-4 start; they’re 2-4 this year in games decided by less than 7 points. EMU is 4-6 vs spread in its last 10 games as a favorite. Georgia Southern has one of most experienced OL’s in country; they’re in only their 5th year of I-A football. GSU is Eagles pounded Bowling Green 58-27 in its only bowl game, three years ago. MAC teams are 14-11 vs spread in their last 25 games vs Sun Belt opponents. Sun Belt teams split four Camellia Bowls; average total in four games was 61.3. Seven of last nine EMU games stayed under total; five of last six Ga Southern games went over.

New Orleans Bowl
Favorites won/covered last three New Orleans Bowls; Sun Belt team won this game five of last seven years. Appalachian State is 10-2 with an OT loss at Penn State that they led in the last minute of regulation. ASU is 3-0 in bowl games, scoring 31+ points in all three- this is only their 5th year as a I-A team. Middle Tennessee State won five of last seven games, splitting pair with UAB; they’re 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. Sun Belt teams covered eight of their last ten games with C-USA opponents. Six of last eight ASU games stayed under the total; three of Blue Raiders’ last four games went over. ASU’s coach has already jumped ship for the Louisville job; MTSU’s senior QB is the head coach’s son, so this will be an emotional game for them.

Dec 18
Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, FL
UAB didn’t field a football team in 2015-16; they went 8-5 LY, lost their bowl game 41-6, then went 10-3 this year, winning C-USA title Dec 1. All three Blazer losses are by 21+ points. Northern Illinois is 8-5 after winning MAC title 30-29 over Buffalo Nov 30; Huskies lost their last five bowls, last three by 22+ points each. NIU is 7-0 when it scores 24+ points, 1-5 when they don’t; in their last four games (2-2) they were -7 in turnovers. Huskies have a top 10 OL in experience. Favorites covered three of first four Boca Raton Bowls, with average total of 64.8; C-USA teams are 3-0 in this game. Last two years, C-USA teams are 7-5 vs spread when playing MAC teams. Under is 9-4 in NIU games this season; four of last five UAB games went over.

Dec 19
Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
San Diego State lost its last three games after a 7-2 start, which is how they wound up here- they lost SU as 18 and 24-point home favorites in November. Aztecs covered five of their last six tries as an underdog. Ohio U won five of its last six games, scoring 52-49 points in last two; Bobcats are 11-6 vs spread in their last 17 games as a favorite. Last eight years, Mountain West teams are 16-13 vs spread when playing a MAC team, 6-6 when an underdog. San Diego St is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34+ points in last three. Ohio won its bowl 41-6 LY, snapping a 3-bowl losing skid. Under is 6-3 in Aztecs’ last nine games, 1-4 in Ohio’s last five. Favorites covered three of four Frisco Bowls, with an average total of 77.3.

Dec 20
Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa
Home game for South Florida, which lost its last five games (all by 10+ points) after a 7-0 start; Bulls threw for a combined 195 yards in last two games- they allowed 220+ RY in six of their last seven games. Under Strong, USF is 5-11 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 this year. Bulls won four of last five bowls, with average total of 79 in last three. Marshall won five of its last seven games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog. Thundering Herd won its last six bowl games. Marshall has a big edge in experience on OL. Favorites covered this bowl four of last six years, with average total of 30.0 last three years. AAC teams are 14-13 vs spread when facing a C-USA squad, 1-4 this year. Three of last four USF games stayed under total; over is 4-1 in last five Marshall games.

Dec 21
Bahamas Bowl
C-USA/MAC teams split the four Bahamas Bowls, with an average total of 66; FIU is 1-2 in bowl games, losing 28-3 to Temple LY- coach Davis is 5-3 in bowls. Panthers split their last four games after a 6-2 start; under Davis, they’re 6-3 vs spread as underdogs, 3-0 this year. FIU was outgained by 238+ yards in three of their last four losses. Toledo lost its last two bowls, getting blanked 34-0 by Appalachian St LY as a 7-point favorite. Rockets won four of their last five games after a 3-4 start, scoring 56-51 points in last two games; Toledo allowed 412+ TY in 10 of their last 11 games- they’re 2-5 vs spread in their last seven games as a single-digit favorite. Last five FIU games went over the total; over is 7-4 in Toledo games.

Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise
BYU won at Arizona/Wisconsin in September, but lost three of last five games, and stumbles in here with 6-6 record. Cougars didn’t go to a bowl LY, and lost three of their last four bowls before that- they did hold last six opponents to 327 or fewer TY. Western Michigan has 1-7 record in bowl games, with only win over MTSU in the Bahamas three years ago. Broncos lost three of their last four games after a 6-2 start; they allowed 42+ points in all five of their losses, are 7-0 when they give up less than 40 points. WMU lost two games that they scored 42+ points in this season. BYU is 9-4 vs spread in last 13 games as a double digit favorite; . Western Michigan Four of last five BYU games stayed under total; last four WMU games went over.

Dec 22
Birmingham Bowl
Wake Forest is in its 3rd straight bowl, winning 34-26/55-52 in previous two; Memphis is in its 5th straight bowl, losing last three while allowing 34.3 ppg. Wake scored 50+ points in four of its six wins- they’re 1-4 scoring less than 27 points. Deacons are 11-4-1 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog, 1-2 this year. Memphis won four of its last five games after a 4-4 start; they ran ball for 400+ yards in last two games, 200+ yards in last eight games. Wake held five of last six opponents under 200 rushing yards. Tigers are 11-5 in last 16 games as a favorite, 6-1 this year. Last four years, AAC teams are 17-11 vs spread when playing an ACC opponent. Three of last four Wake games stayed under total; five of last six Memphis games went over.

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth
Army won its last eight games after losing in OT at Oklahoma Sept 28; they outgained Sooners 379-355, running ball for 339 yards. Cadets did get held under 300 TY in three of last four games; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five games as a favorite. Houston lost three of last four games after a 7-1 start; they gave up 45 points in all four losses this year. Star DE Oliver left team to prep for NFL Draft, which leaves a void. Navy ran for 344 yards vs Cougars, which is a red flag. Houston is in its 6th straight bowl; they lost 34-10/33-27 in last two; they won this bowl in 2014. Army is in 3rd straight bowl, winning 38-31ot/42-35 in last two- they won this bowl LY. Three of last four Army games stayed under total; five of last six Houston games went over.

Post by **Admin** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:10 am

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
December 11, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15

Matchup Skinny Edge

NORTH TEXAS vs. UTAH STATE (New Mexico Bowl)...Mean Green closed season dropping last 5 and 7 of last 8 vs. number. Meanwhile Utags 8-3-1 vs. points this term, though failed to cover last two.
Utah State, based on team trends.

TULANE vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (Cure Orlando Bowl)...Wave failed to cover last three and 5 of last 7 this season. Also no covers last five as chalk. Ragin’ Cajuns roared down stretch with 8 covers in last 10 and covers 5 of last 6 as dog. ULL 4-1 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2011.
UL-Lafayette, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE vs. FRESNO STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...ASU 3-3 vs. line away from Tempe this season, but 5-2 overall as dog. Also 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls. Fresno 9-4 vs. line TY, 19-6-2 vs. number since Jeff Tedford arrived LY. Also 11-2-2 vs. points away from home since LY.
Fresno State, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Camellia Bowl)...With EMU a slight dog at latest check, will note Eagles 4-1 mark getting points this season and 18-3-1 as dog since 2016! Also 16-3 last 19 vs. spread away from Ypsilanti. GS, however, covered 9 of 12 this season.
Eastern Michigan, if dog, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE vs. APPALACHIAN STATE (New Orleans Bowl)...Middle won its bowl LY in Camellia but only 1-4 vs. line last five bowls. Blue Raiders did cover 5 of last 6 this season and last four as dog. App only 2 covers last 7 this season (2-3-2), though has won SU last three bowls and covered 2 of those.
Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.

Post by **Admin** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:54 am

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
December 11, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 18

Matchup Skinny Edge

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. UAB (Boca Raton Bowl)...NIU 0-5 SU and vs. line last five bowls since 2011 season. Blazers 9-4 vs. spread this season, 17-8-1 since resuming football in 2017 (though just 7-7 vs. number away from Legion Field).
UAB, based on team trends.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 19

Matchup Skinny Edge

OHIO vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Frisco Bowl)...SDSU just 3–9 vs. line this season, but 3-0 as dog and 0-8 as chalk! Aztecs 6-0 as dog since 2016. Solich 4-2 vs. points last six bowls but just 1-2 as chalk away from home this season.
Slight to San Diego State, based on team trends.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20

Matchup Skinny Edge

MARSHALL at SOUTH FLORIDA (Gasparilla Bowl)...Herd has won and covered last six bowl games since 2009 (Doc Holliday 5-0). Marshall 8-5 vs. spread away since last season, though failed to cover last three away TY. Marshall also on 11-5 “over” run. Bulls only 6-12 last 18 vs. spread since mid 2019 and lost last five SU this season. Also 1-5 vs. line at Raymond James Stadium this season.
Marshall, based on team trends.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. TOLEDO (Bahamas Bowl)...Butch Davis 9-3 vs. line this season, 14-6 last 20 on board. Golden Panthers 3-0 as dog this campaign and 9-4 getting points since last season. Toledo no wins or covers last two bowls, Rockets 3-7 last 10 vs. points against non-MAC foes.
FIU, based on team trends.

BYU vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN (Idaho Potato Bowl)...BYU no covers last four bowls since 2013. But Cougs did cover last four this season and were 4-0 as DD chalk in 2018. WMU 1-4 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2008 and Broncos 2-6 vs. spread last 8 in 2018. WMU 2-4 vs. spread last 6 as dog.
Slight to BYU, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, DEC. 22

Matchup Skinny Edge

WAKE FOREST vs. MEMPHIS (Birmingham Bowl)...Wake only 3-6 as dog this season but Clawson was 10-2-1 in role entering this season. Deacs 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line last five bowls including wins past two seasons. Memphis no wins or covers last three years in bowls, only 2-4 vs. points away from home this season.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.

HOUSTON vs. ARMY (Armed Forces Bowl)...Army back in this game for a second straight year. Black Knights have won SU last two bowls (1-1 vs. line), 10-5-2 last 17 on board since mid 2017. Also 6-1-1 last 8 away from Michie Stadium. Cougs 3-8 vs. points last 11 away from home, 0-2 SU and vs. line last two years in bowls.
Army, based on team trends.

BUFFALO vs. TROY (Dollar General Bowl)...Bulls 9-4 vs. line this season, 18-6-2 last 26 on board. Also 6-2-1 last nine on board vs. non-MAC. Troy 8-3-1 vs. number this season, 9-3-1 as dog since 2015. Trojans have won and covered past three bowls, including past two seasons.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.

LA TECH at HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Hawaii 3-4 vs. spread at home this season, 6-13-1 vs. points at home since Nick Rolovich took over in 2016. Bows 9-20-1 vs. points since late in 2016 season. La Tech closed slowly this season by dropping 3 of last 4 vs. line, but 9-4 against line last 13 away from home, and Skip Holtz 17-6 as dog since 2014. Holtz 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line in bowls with Bulldogs.
La Tech, based on team trends.

Post by **Admin** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:55 am

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
December 11, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

Matchup Skinny Edge

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOISE STATE (First Responder Dallas Bowl)...BC on 16-6 uptick vs. spread. Addazio 8-3 as dog since last season, Eagles 11-2-1 last 14 as dog away from Chestnut Hill. Boise 3-1 last four bowls but 3-3 last six. Broncos 13-6-1 last 19 vs. points away from home.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA vs. GEORGIA TECH (Quick Lane Bowl)...Gophers 2-6-1 vs. spread away from home (2-5-1 last eight as road dog) under P.J. Fleck. Paul Johnson 3-1 SU and vs. line in last four bowls.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on team trends.

TCU vs. CALIFORNIA (Cheez-it Phoenix Bowl)...TCU endured a 7-game spread losing streak this season before recovering to win and cover last two. Frogs 2-7 vs. points last nine bowls. Cal was on a 5-game spread win streak before losing finale vs. Stanford, and is 6-1 vs. points last 7 away from Berkeley. Bears “under” 11-3 last 14 dating to late 2017.
Cal and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

Matchup Skinny Edge

DUKE vs. TEMPLE (Independence Bowl)...Duke 3-6 vs. spread last nine this season in rare spread slump under Cutcliffe. Blue Devils, however, have covered last four bowls, and Cutcliffe 4-0 as dog this season. Duke 24-11-1 as dog since 2013. Owls 8-4 vs. number this season but 1-2 SU and vs, line last three years in bowls.
Duke, based on extended trends.

MIAMI-FLA. at WISCONSIN (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...Rematch of LY’s Orange Bowl won by Wiscy 34-24! Miami rallied at end of season with pair of wins and covers but had dropped five previous vs. spread. Richt on 5-11 spread skid. Canes 1-4 SU and vs. line last five years in bowls (1-1 with Richt). Badgers however a miserable 3-9 vs. spread this season and just 1-2 as dog after Chryst was 6-2 as dog previous three years. Badgers have won and covered last four bowls.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on extended trends.

VANDERBILT vs. BAYLOR (Texas Bowl)...Derek Mason 8-4 vs. spread this season, and enters on 5-game spread win streak. Vandy 5-1 last six vs. line away from home. Dores have also covered last six vs. BCS-level non-SEC foes. Matt Rhule 4-3 as dog this season but just 8-8 in role since arriving at Baylor LY.
Vanderbilt, based on team trends.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

Matchup Skinny Edge

AUBURN vs. PURDUE (Music City Bowl)...Malzahn 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls last four seasons, also 10-19-2 overall vs. spread since mid 2016. Brohm has won bowls the past three tries and covered his last two bowls at WKU and Purdue. Boilermakers 3-0 as dog TY, 8-2 in role for Brohm since last season.
Purdue, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Camping World Bowl)...Holgorsen 0-5 SU and vs. line last five bowls. Cuse 8-3-1 vs. spread this season, also 9-3 vs. spread last 12 away from Carrier Dome. Orange also 9-3 as dog sine last season, though not sure where this number goes post-Grier.
Syracuse, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (Alamo Bowl)...ISU slumped late in season with four straight spread Ls to close campaign though Cyclones were 3-1 SU in those games. ISU was 22-8-1 vs. line in 31 previous games dating to early 2016. Matt Campbell 15-8-1 as dog since taking over at Ames in 2016. Leach was 3-0 vs. spread laying points away from home this season, but Cougs just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Leach. Wazzu 8-11 vs. spread last 19 against non-Pac 12 foes. Note Pac-12 1-8 SU in bowls LY.
Iowa State, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARKANSAS STATE vs. NEVADA (Arizona Bowl)...Red Wolves 1-3 SU and vs. line last four bowls, though they did cover last four this season. Still, only 4-5 vs. spread last nine away from Jonesboro. Wolf Pack dropped last two vs. line this season after 4-game cover streak. Nevada no covers last five vs. non-MW BCS foes.
Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN (Peach Bowl)...Rematch of opener last season won by Harbaugh, 33-17. That was pre-Dan Mullen at Florida; Gators were 8-4 vs. spread in Mullen debut, Michigan 1-4 vs. spread away from Ann Arbor this season, and 2-8 against spread last 10 away from home. Also just 2-6 last 8 as chalk away from Ann Arbor.
Florida, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA (Belk Bowl)...Cavs only 1-3 vs. spread last four in 2018 but overall were 8-4 vs. number this season. Wahoos also 4-1 as dog in 2018. Mendenhall, however, 0-4 SU and vs. line last four bowls. SC 4-1 vs. line away from Williams-Brice this season. Muschamp has won and covered bowls the past two seasons and Gamecocks 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. spread in bowls since 2011.
South Carolina, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA vs. ALABAMA (CFP Orange Bowl)...OU just 2-4 SU and vs. spread last six bowls but did beat Saban in 2013 Sugar Bowl. Lincoln Riley 2-0 as dog (0-0 this season). Saban just 3-5 vs. spread in bowl/playoff games since 2013. Tide just 5-6 vs. line last 11 away from Tuscaloosa.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. CLEMSON (CFP Cotton Bowl)...Dabo 7-1 vs. line last eight bowl/playoff games. Clemson on 10-3 spread uptick since late last season. Tigers also 7-2 vs. points last nine away from Death Valley. Brian Kelly just 2-2 as dog since 2016 (0-0 TY) and Irish 2-4 vs. line last six bowls (both covers vs. LSU).
Clemson, based on team trends.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

Matchup Skinny Edge

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Military Bowl)...Hokies were on a 6-game spread skid this season before winning and covering last two to salvage bowl streak (now 26 straight). VPI only 3-6 as dog since last season. Bearcats only covered 2 of last 6 this campaign after starting 5-1 vs. line. Cincy no wins or covers last three in bowls (though not since 2015).
Slight to Virginia Tech, based on extended trends.

PITTSBURGH vs. STANFORD (Sun Bowl)...Pitt had a 6-game cover streak prior to last two games of season. Panthers 5-3 as dog this season, and Narduzzi 11-6 last 17 getting points. Pitt however 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Stanford 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. spread last four bowls, closed season on 4-1-1 spread uptick. Tree 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 away from Farm, and one of only two Pac-12 teams to cover spread in bowls last year.
Stanford, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. OREGON (Redbox Santa Clara Bowl)...MSU only 4-8 vs. line this season and Dantonio 2-3 as dog after 7-4 mark as short entering 2018. Spartans just 6-9 vs. number last 15 away from East Lansing, though Dantonio 5-1 SU and vs. spread last six bowls. Ducks only 4-7-1 vs. spread this season and are 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Webfoots 2-8-2 last 12 vs. line against non-Pac 12 foes.
Michigan State, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Liberty Bowl)...Mizzou just 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Columbia (though did cover last two away TY). Tigers 3-5 vs. line against non-SEC BS-level foes since last season. Gundy was 4-0 as dog this season, 10-3 in role since 2015, and has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. UTAH (Holiday Bowl)...Underdog side was 11-1-1 in NU games this season with Cats 5-1-1 as short. Pat Fitz has won SU last two bowls but just 1-2 last 3. Kyle Whittingham 10-1 SU in bowls, 8-3 vs. line in those, and 11-6 vs. spread last 17 away from Salt Lake City.
Slight to Utah, based on bowl trends.

NC STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Gator Bowl)...Pack has won and covered last two and 3 of last 4 bowl games. Pack 4-1 vs. spread last five vs. non-ACC. Jimbo 8-4 vs. line TY but just 2-3 vs. points away from home, and only 1-3 last 4 bowls while at FSU.
Slight to NC State, based on team trends.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Matchup Skinny Edge

IOWA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Outback Bowl)...Iowa 9-5 vs. line since late 2017, but Hawks 0-3 as dog in 2018. Ferentz 2-3 vs. spread last five bowls but has covered last four against non-Big Ten foes. Note Hawkeyes on 12-5 “over” run. MSU 16-9 vs. line since last season, 8-4 TY for Moorhead.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY vs. PENN STATE (Citrus Bowl)...UK winless SU last four bowls but did cover in Music City vs. NU last year. Cats 4-1 as dog TY, Stoops 13-7 getting points since 2016. Penn State no covers last three away TY but James Franklin 3-1 vs. line in bowls for Nittany Lions, 5-2 vs. spread in bowls with Vandy years.
Slight to Kentucky, based on recent trends.

LSU vs. UCF (Fiesta Bowl)...Orgeron 2-5 as chalk this season, and LSU just 2-5 vs. spread last seven bowls (1-1 with Orgeron). UCF 4-2 vs. spread last six bowls, 10–3 vs. line since late last season, 5-1 last six vs. points away from home.
UCF, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. OHIO STATE (Rose Bowl)...Huskies only 4-9 vs. line this season, 5-11 last 16 on board. Petersen 1-3 as dog since 2016. U-Dub 2-7 vs. line last 9 against non-Pac 12. Huskies 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Petersen. Urban 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls with Buckeyes, 10-3 SU and vs. line in bowls back to Utah days in 2003.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

TEXAS vs. GEORGIA (Sugar Bowl)...Tom Herman teams 12-2 as dog since 2015 with Houston. Herman 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls. Georgia has covered last five playoff/bowl games, Kirby Smart 2-0 vs. line in those. Bulldogs on 13-5 spread uptick since late 2017.
Slight to Texas, based on Tom Herman dog trends.

Post by **Admin** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:55 am

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

**Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette**

-- The Tulane Green Wave (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) of American Athletic Conference meet the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7-6 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) of the Sun Belt Conference at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida for the AutoNation Cure Bowl.

-- The Green Wave are bowling for the first time since 2013 when they lost to these same Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl by a 24-21 count. Tulane hasn't won in the postseason since 2002 out in the Hawai'i Bowl, pushing past the hometown team on Christmas Day by a 36-28 count. All time the Green Wave have posted a 4-8 record in 12 bowl appearances. This will be their first appearance in the Cure Bowl.

-- The Ragin' Cajuns will be making their sixth-ever bowl appearance, and their first-ever outside of the city of New Orleans. They posted a 4-1 record in five showings in the New Orleans Bowl, winning their first four in the Big Easy before suffering a 28-21 setback against Southern Mississippi in 2016, their most recent appearance in the postseason.

-- Tulane stumbled out of the chute with a 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS record, including losses to Power 5 teams at home against Wake Forest on Aug. 30, 23-17, and on the road against Ohio State on Sept. 22, 49-6. However, in perhaps their most impressive victory of the season, the Green Wave took it to fellow bowl team Memphis, 40-24, winning outright as 14 1/2-point underdogs at home. Unfortunately they were unable to carry over the momentum, losing two in a row to slide to 2-5 SU/3-4 ATS. That's when Tulane kicked it into high gear, winning a pair of road games at Tulsa and South Florida before taking down East Carolina at home to get back to .500. Bowl eligibility wasn't a certainty after getting throttled at Houston 48-17 on Nov. 15, and they held off a poor Navy team 29-28 to just inch over the finish line and end up 6-6. The Green Wave enter bowl season on an 0-3 ATS slide.

-- Tulane posted very marginal numbers on offense this season except for in the run game. They were 30th in the country with 208.7 yards per game, as Darius Bradwell (165-982-9) and Corey Dauphine (116-754-7) are an impressive one-two punch. They were just 103rd in passing, posting a dismal 186.2 yards per game, and 25.7 points per game (PPG) to rank 93rd. Defensively the Green Wave had trouble stopping the pass, ranking just 115th with 265.2 yards per contest. They were halfway decent agaisnt the run, giving up just 153.9 yards per game to check in 50th in the country.

-- ULL checked in 39th in the country with 437.2 yards per game, and they were potent in the run game with 229.2 yards per game to finish 19th in the land. Trey Ragas managed 1,141 rushing yards (5.8 yards per carry) with eight scores, and Elijah Mitchell scored 12 times on the ground, too. WR Ja'Marcus Bradley (38-557-10) is the threat in the pass game. They also posted 32.5 PPG to rank 39th in the nation. The Cajuns were defensively challenged, ranking 96th in the nation with 432.3 yards per game, and they were hammered for 210.0 per game to rank 107th in rush defense. They also gave up 33.7 PPG to finish 105th overall.

-- The Green Wave are slight favorites in this one. As a favorite of 9 1/2 or less, they went 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS this season. ULL was a single-digit 'dog on three occasions, going 2-1 SU/ATS.

-- The Green Wave enter 2-5 ATS over the past seven games, and they're 1-4 ATS in the past five following a straight-up victory. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five games on a fieldturf surface.

-- The Ragin' Cajuns are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games and 4-1 ATS in their five bowl games all-time. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four games after a straight-up loss while going 4-1 ATS in the past five on fieldturf.

-- The under has cashed in five of the past six games overall for Tulane, while going 5-1 in their past six outside of the conference. The under is also 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- The over is 11-1 in the past 12 non-conference tilts for ULL. However, the under is 4-1 in their past five overall, and 7-1 in the past eight appearances in the month of December.

-- In this series, the underdog has connected in five straight meetings, and ULL is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sports Network.

**Utah State vs. North Texas**

-- In the Gildan New Mexico Bowl at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M. it will be the Utah State Aggies (10-2 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) of the Mountain West Conference facing off against the Conference USA representative North Texas Mean Green (9-3 straight up, 4-8 against the spread).

-- The Mean Green fired out to a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS record, including a 27-point thumping of Power 5 conference member Arkansas back in Sept. 15 on the road. QB Mason Fine and the offense rolled up 44 or more points in each of the first four games and they were sailing along until Sept. 29 when Louisiana Tech upset them at home by a 29-27 score. They rebounded with a pair of conference wins at UTEP and against Southern Miss, but they lost a coin-flip game at UAB by a 29-21 margin to take a second conference loss. A second straight trip to the C-USA title game was still in reach, but a 24-21 loss as 14 1/2-point favorites at Old Dominion put the final nail in their coffin. They were able to finish up strong with a revenge-game win over FAU, 41-38 on Nov. 15, and 24-21 at UTSA to close out the season. They didn't exactly finish up strong, going 0-5 ATS in their final five outings, and 1-7 ATS in the last eight.

-- As far as Utah State, they were looking like a legit Group of 5 representative. They opened the season with a 38-31 loss at Michigan State, easily covering a 23 1/2-point spread. In fact, they covered their first six games until a non-cover at Wyoming on Oct. 20. They Aggies didn't lose again until Nov. 24 in Boise State, failing in their bid for a chance to go to the Mountain West Conference championship game and a more prestigious bowl. They also ended up 3-3 ATS in the final six outings after their perfect 6-0 ATS start.

-- When UNT has the ball they're be very up-tempo and fun to watch. They were 15th in the country in total yards (472.8 yards per game), 11th in passing yardage per game (316.2 YPG) and 21st in scoring (36.4 PPG). Defensively they were strong against the run, allowing just 113.4 YPG to finish 15th, and they gave up just 21.8 PPG to finish 31st. If Utah State is going to exploit them, it will be on the pass. UNT was 92nd in the nation against the pass, allowing 246.1 yards per game.

-- Fine threw for 3,734 yards, 27 TDs and five INTs, and his favorite target is WR Rico Bussey Jr. (68-1,017-12). WR Jalen Guyton (50-702-5) is also a threat in the pass game, while it's all about RBs Deandre Torrey (161-942-14) and Loren Easly (74-386-4) in the run game.

-- For USU, they're 11th in the land in total yards (493.8 YPG), 18th in passing yards (288.8 YPC) and third overall in the nation with 47.2 PPG. Defensively, the Aggies were gashed for 240.1 yards per game, just 84th in the nation. QB Jordan Love completed 65.8 percent of his attempts, throwing for 3,208 yards, 28 TDs and five INTs. Mason vs. Love will be one of the better bowl game matchups we'll see all season. RB Darwin Thompson (132-951-14) is the stud, with Gerold Bright (125-785-8) as the strong change-of-pace guy.

-- For the Aggies, they'll be playing for interim coach Frank Maile, as Matt Wells took the job at Texas Tech. They have lost their past two bowl appearances, and they're 4-8 overall in 12 all-time bowl games. They won their only previous appearance in the New Mexico Bowl, pushing aside UTEP 21-6 in Wells' second season in Logan.

-- The Mean Green will be making their third straight bowl appearance in three years under the tutelage of Seth Littrell, and they're hoping the third time is a charm. They lost in the New Orleans Bowl to Troy last season, and to Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in 2016. Overall they're just 2-7 in nine previous trips, and this will be their first-ever appearance in the New Mexico Bowl.

-- Utah State is 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference games, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 games overall. However, they're 4-15 ATS in the past 19 against winning teams.

-- North Texas is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles, but they're 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning teams, 2-5 ATS in the past seven games in December and 0-5 ATS in the past five overall.

-- The 'under' has cashed in six straight bowl games for Utah State, but the over is 23-9 in their past 32 overall. The over is 4-0 in the past four non-conference games and 4-1 in their past five against winning sides.

-- The 'under' is 4-0 in UNT's past four outside of the conference, 12-3-1 in the past 16 overall and 5-2 in their past seven on a grass surface.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Arizona State vs. Fresno State**

-- In the Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas it will be the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) taking on the Mountain West Conference champion Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2 straight up, 9-4 against the spread).

-- The season started with a lot of promise for AZ State and first-year coach Herm Edwards, as they spanked UTSA and upset a then-ranked Michigan State team 16-13 on Sept. 8 to open 2-0 SU/ATS. However, a two-game losing skid at San Diego State and Washington splashed cold water on the start, and the Sun Devils found themselves 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS through seven games heading into a late-October battle at USC. They won that one 38-35 in exciting fashion behind stud WR N'Keal Harry, who will be skipping this one to get ready for his pro career and the NFL Draft. Sparky also edged rival Arizona 41-40 on Nov. 24 in Tucson for a seventh win.

-- Fresno State fell 21-14 at Minnesota on Sept. 8, and it appeared maybe it might be a so-so season. However, a 38-14 thumping of UCLA on the road renewed hope, and they punished Toledo 49-27 to wrap up September at 3-1 SU/ATS. They wouldn't lose again until Nov. 9 on a Friday night in Boise State, 24-17. However, they would avenge that loss on the Smurf Turf on Dec. 1 in the MWC Championship Game to punch their ticket to Vegas.

-- Arizona State ranked 44th in total yards (427.2 yards per game), and they ranked 56th in passing yards (241.3 YPG). However, those stats are out with the window with Harry in street clothes. Defensively, AZ State ranked 71st in total yards (402.8 YPG), 82nd in passing yards allowed (238.7 YPG) and 65th against the run (164.2 YPG). QB Manny Wilkins is still playing, though, and he passed for 2,896 yards, 19 TD and four INT while running for 416 yards and eight more scores. RB Eno Benjamin (277-1,524-15) will also be leaned upon, adding to his impressive stat line.

-- Fresno State finished 50th in total yards (421.0 YPG), while posting 274.2 YPG to rank 25th in the country. They were also 26th in the land (34.9 PPG). Defensively, the Bulldogs allowed just 323.8 yards per game to rank 17th in the land, and they were third in points allowed with just 13.7 PPG.

-- QB Marcus McMaryion was a dual-threat option who didn't make many miscues. He passed for 3,453 yards, 25 TD and three INT while rushing for seven touchdowns. RBs Ronnie Rivers (108-531-8) and Jordan Mims (113-436-6) are solid on the ground, while WR KeeSean Johnson (93-1,307-8) and TE Jared Rice (51-624-3) are the top options in the pass game.

-- Fresno State won last season in the Hawai'i Bowl, snapping a six-game bowl skid. That includes their only other trip to the Las Vegas Bowl, a 45-20 pounding inflicted by USC. The Bulldogs are 2-1 all-time against Pac-12 members at the time. They also played Colorado in the Aloha Bowl in 1993, but they were in the Big 12 then.

-- Arizona State has a long bowl history, going 14-15-1, including two trips to the Salad Bowl. They appeared in the Las Vegas Bowl once before, getting smacked around by Boise State 56-24 back on Dec. 22, 2011. Arizona State is 2-6 across their past eight postseason appearances.

-- The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their past nine bowl games and just 1-6 ATS in their past seven battles against Mountain West foes. They are an impressive 10-4 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- The Bulldogs are an amazing 26-7-1 ATS in the past 34 overall and 16-5 ATS in the past 21 against teams with a winning record. They're also 8-2 ATS in the past 10 non-conference battles. However, Fresno is 1-6 ATS in the past seven bowl games and 4-9 ATS in the past 13 against Pac-12 foes.

-- The 'over' has cashed in eight of the past 10 neutral-site games for Arizona State, and 4-1 in the past five non-conference games. They over is also 6-1 in their past seven bowl appearances.

-- The 'under' is 22-8 in the past 30 overall for Fresno State, but the over is 5-2-1 in their past eight bowl appearances. The over is also 16-4-1 in their past 21 against the Pac-12 and 4-1 in the past five outside of the conference.

-- Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Post by **Admin** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:55 am

Saturday's Late Bowl Tips
Brian Edwards

**Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern**

-- The Raycom Media Camelia Bowl will take place Saturday in Montgomery, Alabama, at the Crampton Bowl. Kickoff for Georgia Southern vs. Eastern Michigan is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

-- As of Tuesday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia Southern (9-3 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) installed as a one-point favorite with a total of 47.5 or 48. However, by Friday afternoon, most spots had GSU favored by three points with the total at 45. The Eagles were +140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).

-- Eastern Michigan (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) is bowling for only the third time in school history and hasn’t won a bowl game since 1987. Chris Creighton’s squad won each of its last three regular-season contests and five of its past six. The Eagles could’ve easily folded their tents after starting 2-0 before losing four consecutive one-possession games, including a pair of overtime losses at San Diego State (23-20) and vs. No. Illinois (26-23). Remember, EMU lost three OT games in 2017 during a six-game losing streak in which the Eagles went 4-1-1 ATS and lost by only 23 combined points.

-- EMU forced three turnovers and had three stops on fourth-down attempts in its 28-20 non-covering win at Kent State in the club’s regular-season finale. Senior RB Ian Eriksen led the way with 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 17 carries.

-- EMU has faced six foes who are going bowling, posting a 2-4 SU record and a 3-3 ATS mark. The Eagles won 20-19 at Purdue as 15-point underdogs when Chad Ryland buried a 24-yard field goal in walk-off fashion. Senior QB Tyler Wiegers, a grad transfer from Iowa, completed 20-of-28 passes for 312 yards and one TD with an interception against the Boilermakers. EMU also beat Toledo by a 28-26 count as a two-point home underdog. The Eagles led 28-3 at halftime and 28-6 with less than 12 minutes remaining. But the Rockets outscored them 20-0 in the final stanza and sliced the deficit to two with 20 ticks remaining. EMU got the stop on the two-point conversion, though, to preserve the victory.

-- Wiegers has connected on 64.8 percent of his passes for 1,887 yards with an 11/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Blake Banham is his favorite target, hauling in 54 receptions for 714 yards and five TDs. Arthur Jackson III has 43 catches for 506 yards and three TDs, while Mathew Sexton has 36 grabs for 506 yards and three TDs.

-- EMU’s leading rusher is Shaq Vann, who has 590 yards, five TDs and a 4.4 yards-per-carry average.

-- EMU has been an underdog six times this year, compiling a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories at Purdue and vs. Toledo. The Eagles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games and 24-11 in their past 35 contests (regardless of the venue or ‘chalk’-‘dog role).

-- EMU is ranked fifth in the nation in pass defense, 35th in total defense and 32nd in scoring ‘D’ (22.0 points per game). This unit, which gave up only one TD in the last three games of the regular season, is led by junior DE Maxx Crosby, who has produced 62 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, seven QB hurries, four forced fumbles, three passes broken up and one pick-six. Crosby now has 20 career sacks to rank him in a tie for second-most in program history. There are numerous other defensive standouts for the Eagles, including junior DB Brody Hoying, junior safety Vince Calhoun, senior LB Kyle Rachwal and senior DE Jeremiah Harris.

-- We should point out that EMU has already faced a triple-option attack this season when it lost to Army. Couple that with its extra prep time for the postseason, and you have a stop unit that should be better prepared for GSU’s unique attack (at least when comparing to other regular-season foes who have such short prep time).

-- In his first full season as head coach, Georgia Southern’s Chad Lunsford has done a sensational job. He took over (a 0-6 team!) for Tyson Summers on an interim basis for last year’s final four regular-season games and went 3-2-1 ATS with a pair of outright victories. Now he has the storied program, one that made the jump to FBS into the Sun Belt conference in 2014 after winning a slew of national titles at the lower level over the last several decades, playing in its second bowl game. The Eagles went 9-3 in 2014 but weren’t eligible for the postseason during their first year at the FBS level. They smashed Bowling Green 58-27 as seven-point underdogs in the 2015 GoDaddy Bowl, only to go 5-7 in Summers’s first year on the job in 2016.

-- Georgia Southern sprinted out to a 7-1 start both SU and ATS with its lone defeat coming by a 38-7 score at Clemson as a 31.5-point road underdog. The Eagles appeared to take control of the Sun Belt East division when they rocked eventual SBC champ, Appalachian State, by a 34-14 count as 11-point home underdogs on Oct. 25. However, they dropped their next two games in blowout fashion at ULM (44-25) and vs. Troy (35-21).

-- Georgia Southern bounced back to win its final two regular-season games both SU and ATS at Coastal Carolina (41-17) and at Georgia State (35-14). In the win over the Panthers in Atlanta, GSU raced out to a 28-0 lead and didn’t give up any points until there was 9:45 remaining in the final stanza. Sophomore QB Shai Werts completed 8-of-11 passes for 105 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed for 75 yards and one TD on 13 attempts. RB Wesley Fields ran 16 times for 151 yards and one TD. Werts threw a 58-yard TD pass to Colby Ransom and had a 38-yard scoring strike to Darion Anderson.

-- GSU posted a 3-1 record both SU and ATS in four games as a single-digit favorite during the 2018 regular season.

-- Werts completed 65-of-109 passes (59.6%) for 954 yards and 10 TD passes without an interception. He also ran for 822 yards and a team-high 13 TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Fields rushed for a team-best 959 yards and nine TDs, averaging 5.4 YPC. Fields also had 10 receptions for 237 yards and one TD. Sophomore RB Wesley Kennedy had 15 catches for 182 yards, in addition to 395 rushing yards and three TDs with a 7.2 YPC average.

-- GSU is ranked ninth in the nation in rushing yards and scores at a 31.1 PPG clip. The Eagles are ranked 27th in the country in scoring ‘D’ (21.6 PPG).

-- Totals were an overall was for the Eagles (6-6), but they saw a 5-0 run of ‘overs’ snapped when the 49 combined points dropped ‘under’ 60 in the regular-season finale at Georgia State. GSU’s games averaged combined scores of 52.7 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ has been a steady money maker for the Eagles this season, going 8-4 overall. They’ve seen the ‘under’ cash in three straight games and seven of their past nine. Eastern Michigan’s games have averaged combined scores of 49.5 PPG.

**Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State**

-- Conference USA and the Sun Belt Conference will have their representative collide Saturday night in the Big Easy at the New Orleans Bowl. Kickoff from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Appalachian State (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) favored by 6.5 points with a total of 47. The Blue Raiders were +200 to win outright (risk $100 to win $200).

-- App State shook off the loss of four-year starting QB Taylor Lamb, who is the school’s third all-time leader in career passing yards with 9,786 after graduating following the 2017 campaign that was capped by a 34-0 win over Toledo as a seven-point underdog in the Dollar General Bowl, to have another terrific season. The Mountaineers, who joined the FBS and SBC in 2014, won the league’s first championship game, remained perfect in terms of winning records at the FBS level (5-for-5) and are going bowling for the fourth straight season.

-- Unfortunately for the program, the enormous success led head coach Scott Satterfield to get a job offer from Louisville, and it was absolutely one he couldn’t turn down. Therefore, Appalachian State is without its head coach. Defensive Line coach Mark Ivey is serving as the team’s interim head coach.

-- Another hurdle App State overcame this season was the loss of star RB Jalin Moore, a two-time All-SBC first-teamer who went down with a season-ending injury in early October. Moore had rushed for 400 yards and six TDs with a 6.3 YPC average, but Darrynton Evans stepped up nicely to fill those shoes. Evans has run for 1,079 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.5 YPC. Marcus Williams Jr. has run for 536 yards and four TDs with a 4.6 YPC average.

-- Sophomore QB Zac Thomas replaced Lamb and had an outstanding debut season as the starter. Thomas has connected on 62.6 percent of his throws for 1,862 yards with an 18/4 TD-INT ratio. He’s run for 476 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC. There were no jitters for Thomas whatsoever in his debut at Penn State. in front of more than 105,000 hostile fans. In a 45-38 overtime loss to PSU, Thomas hit on 25-of-38 passes for 270 yards and two TDs with one interception. He ran for 43 yards and one TD. He has seven TD passes without a pick in the Mountaineers’ past five outings.

-- Thomas’s favorite wideout is Corey Sutton, who has 36 receptions for 695 yards and eight TDs. Dominique Heath has caught 22 balls for 299 yards and five TDs, while Evans has 12 catches for 87 yards and one TD.

-- All 10 of App State’s wins have come by double-digit margins. The Mountaineers were double-digit favorites in 11 of their 12 games, as they covered the spread easily as 24-point ‘dogs in Happy Valley. Since 2015, they’re 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in nine games as single-digit ‘chalk,’ but we should note that they were 1-2 both SU and ATS in three such spots in 2017.

-- App State is 3-0 and 2-1 ATS in the program’s first three bowl games that have come in the past three campaigns. We noted last year’s win over Toledo and in ’16, the Mountaineers nipped Toledo (yes, they played in bowls twice in a row) 31-28 as one-point favorites. In the 2015 Camelia Bowl, they edged Ohio 31-29 as 7.5-point ‘chalk.’

-- App State junior OT Victor Johnson, a first-team All-SBC selection in 2017 who started all 26 games as a freshman and sophomore, missed the regular-season finale with a leg injury. Johnson is ‘questionable’ vs. the Blue Raiders.

-- App State is ranked fifth in the nation in total defense, third at defending the pass, 30th in run defense and sixth in scoring ‘D’ (15.7 PPG). This unit is led by junior LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, who had a team-high 95 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, seven passes broken up, three QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one sack. Junior LB Jordan Fehr recorded 84 tackles, 5.5 sacks, two TFL’s, two PBU and two QB hurries, while LB Noel Cook had 69 stops, 3.5 sacks, 6.5 TFL’s, one interception, one PBU and three QB hurries.

-- Middle Tennessee (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) is led by senior QB Brent Stockstill, who will face a stout secondary led by junior CB Clifton Duck (first-team All-SBC last year) and senior CB Tae Hayes, a second-team All-SBC choice in 2017 who had six PBU, three interceptions (for 75 return yards), three TFL’s and two blocked punts/kicks this season.

-- Rick Stockstill’s squad won seven of its last nine regular-season games to win C-USA’s East Division. MTSU locked up the division by blasting UAB 27-3 as a 3-point home underdog in the regular-season finale. Stockstill connected on 22-of-29 passes for 261 yards and two TDs without an interception to pace the winners.

-- The win over UAB set up a rematch with the Blazers at Johnny ‘Red’ Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro just seven days later. This time around, however, it was UAB that captured a 27-25 triumph as a 1.5-point road underdog. UAB’s Nick Vogel buried a 28-yard field goal with 3:23 remaining to lift his team to victory. Stockstill completed 29-of-45 attempts for 362 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice.

-- Stockstill was already his school’s leader in career passing yards coming into his senior campaign. After throwing for 3,214 yards this year, he has 12,126 passing yards and a career 105/33 TD-INT ratio. Stockstill also ran for 178 yards and a pair of TDs this season.

-- Junior WR Ty Lee, a first-team All-C-USA selection in 2017, had another stellar season by making 67 catches for 828 yards and seven TDs. Patrick Smith had 54 receptions for 526 yards and six TDs.

-- MTSU’s ground attack is led by RB Chaton Mobley, who has a team-best 579 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.0 YPC average. RB Tavares Thomas had a team-high five rushing TDs and caught 34 balls for 232 yards and four TDs.

-- MTSU is bowling for a fourth straight year and for the eighth time in Rick Stockstill’s 13-year tenure. The Blue Raiders had lost four bowl games in a row and five of six under Stockstill until beating Arkansas State 35-30 as 3.5-point underdogs in last year’s Camelia Bowl. They are 4-7 in 11 all-time postseason appearances.

-- MTSU was an underdog seven times this season, going 4-3 ATS with three outright wins vs. FAU (25-24), at Marshall (34-24) and vs. UABG (27-3).

-- Totals have been an overall wash for ASU (6-6), but the ‘under’ finished the regular season on a 6-2 run. The Mountaineers have seen their games average combined scores of 52.3 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the Blue Raiders, but they saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their last four contests. Their games are averaging combined scores of 54.5 PPG.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Arizona State was already going be without likely first-round pick WR N’Keal Harry for Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl showdown vs. Fresno State. Then on Thursday, reports leaked out that ASU won’t have leading tackler Merlin Robertson. The LB, who garnered Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year honors, is dealing with a personal matter and didn’t make the trip to Vegas in order to be with his family. Robertson had 77 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s and five sacks for the Sun Devils, who were six-point underdogs as of Friday afternoon. Side Note: Herm Edwards’s ASU squad hasn’t lost by more than seven points all season.

-- Kentucky junior RB Benny Snell has announced his intentions to turn pro a year early. However, on a bright note for UK fans, Snell says he will play in the team’s bowl game vs. Penn State. PSU was favored by 6.5 points as of Friday. Josh Allen, who some draftniks have as a top-10 pick in the first round, will also play for the ‘Cats vs. the Nittany Lions.

-- Players skipping bowls to stay healthy for the Draft include West Virginia QB Will Grier, WVU’s best o-lineman Yodney Cajuste, Baylor TE Jalen Hurd, Houston DT Ed Oliver, Iowa TE Noah Fant, LSU CB Greedy Williams, South Carolina WR/special-teams All-American Deebo Samuel, N.C. State’s first-team All-ACC LB Germain Pratt, N.C. State’s best WR Kelvin Harmon, Oklahoma State RB Justice Hill and Michigan DL Rashan Gary. Florida WR Tyrie Cleveland (broken collarbone) is ‘out’ vs. Michigan and LSU will also be sans DB Kristian Fulton vs. UCF.

-- According to sources, Stanford star TE Kaden Smith’s lower-body injury that prevented him from playing in the Cardinal’s last two regular-season games (and might’ve cost him The Mackey Award, as he was one of three finalists) “continues to linger” and he’s unlikely to play in the team’s bowl game. Smith, who is listed as 'questionable,' is projected to be a second or third-rounder if he skips his last two years of college to turn pro. We’re told he won’t announce his decision until after the bowl game.

Post by **Admin** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:25 pm

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. TOLEDO (Bahamas Bowl)...Butch Davis 9-3 vs. line this season, 14-6 last 20 on board. Golden Panthers 3-0 as dog this campaign and 9-4 getting points since last season. Toledo no wins or covers last two bowls, Rockets 3-7 last 10 vs. points against non-MAC foes.
FIU, based on team trends.

BYU vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN (Idaho Potato Bowl)...BYU no covers last four bowls since 2013. But Cougs did cover last four this season and were 4-0 as DD chalk in 2018. WMU 1-4 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2008 and Broncos 2-6 vs. spread last 8 in 2018. WMU 2-4 vs. spread last 6 as dog.
Slight to BYU, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, DEC. 22

Matchup Skinny Edge

WAKE FOREST vs. MEMPHIS (Birmingham Bowl)...Wake only 3-6 as dog this season but Clawson was 10-2-1 in role entering this season. Deacs 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line last five bowls including wins past two seasons. Memphis no wins or covers last three years in bowls, only 2-4 vs. points away from home this season.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.

HOUSTON vs. ARMY (Armed Forces Bowl)...Army back in this game for a second straight year. Black Knights have won SU last two bowls (1-1 vs. line), 10-5-2 last 17 on board since mid 2017. Also 6-1-1 last 8 away from Michie Stadium. Cougs 3-8 vs. points last 11 away from home, 0-2 SU and vs. line last two years in bowls.
Army, based on team trends.

BUFFALO vs. TROY (Dollar General Bowl)...Bulls 9-4 vs. line this season, 18-6-2 last 26 on board. Also 6-2-1 last nine on board vs. non-MAC. Troy 8-3-1 vs. number this season, 9-3-1 as dog since 2015. Trojans have won and covered past three bowls, including past two seasons.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.

LA TECH at HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Hawaii 3-4 vs. spread at home this season, 6-13-1 vs. points at home since Nick Rolovich took over in 2016. Bows 9-20-1 vs. points since late in 2016 season. La Tech closed slowly this season by dropping 3 of last 4 vs. line, but 9-4 against line last 13 away from home, and Skip Holtz 17-6 as dog since 2014. Holtz 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line in bowls with Bulldogs.
La Tech, based on team trends.

Post by **Admin** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:25 pm

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
December 11, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

Matchup Skinny Edge

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOISE STATE (First Responder Dallas Bowl)...BC on 16-6 uptick vs. spread. Addazio 8-3 as dog since last season, Eagles 11-2-1 last 14 as dog away from Chestnut Hill. Boise 3-1 last four bowls but 3-3 last six. Broncos 13-6-1 last 19 vs. points away from home.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA vs. GEORGIA TECH (Quick Lane Bowl)...Gophers 2-6-1 vs. spread away from home (2-5-1 last eight as road dog) under P.J. Fleck. Paul Johnson 3-1 SU and vs. line in last four bowls.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on team trends.

TCU vs. CALIFORNIA (Cheez-it Phoenix Bowl)...TCU endured a 7-game spread losing streak this season before recovering to win and cover last two. Frogs 2-7 vs. points last nine bowls. Cal was on a 5-game spread win streak before losing finale vs. Stanford, and is 6-1 vs. points last 7 away from Berkeley. Bears “under” 11-3 last 14 dating to late 2017.
Cal and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

Matchup Skinny Edge

DUKE vs. TEMPLE (Independence Bowl)...Duke 3-6 vs. spread last nine this season in rare spread slump under Cutcliffe. Blue Devils, however, have covered last four bowls, and Cutcliffe 4-0 as dog this season. Duke 24-11-1 as dog since 2013. Owls 8-4 vs. number this season but 1-2 SU and vs, line last three years in bowls.
Duke, based on extended trends.

MIAMI-FLA. at WISCONSIN (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...Rematch of LY’s Orange Bowl won by Wiscy 34-24! Miami rallied at end of season with pair of wins and covers but had dropped five previous vs. spread. Richt on 5-11 spread skid. Canes 1-4 SU and vs. line last five years in bowls (1-1 with Richt). Badgers however a miserable 3-9 vs. spread this season and just 1-2 as dog after Chryst was 6-2 as dog previous three years. Badgers have won and covered last four bowls.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on extended trends.

VANDERBILT vs. BAYLOR (Texas Bowl)...Derek Mason 8-4 vs. spread this season, and enters on 5-game spread win streak. Vandy 5-1 last six vs. line away from home. Dores have also covered last six vs. BCS-level non-SEC foes. Matt Rhule 4-3 as dog this season but just 8-8 in role since arriving at Baylor LY.
Vanderbilt, based on team trends.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

Matchup Skinny Edge

AUBURN vs. PURDUE (Music City Bowl)...Malzahn 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls last four seasons, also 10-19-2 overall vs. spread since mid 2016. Brohm has won bowls the past three tries and covered his last two bowls at WKU and Purdue. Boilermakers 3-0 as dog TY, 8-2 in role for Brohm since last season.
Purdue, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Camping World Bowl)...Holgorsen 0-5 SU and vs. line last five bowls. Cuse 8-3-1 vs. spread this season, also 9-3 vs. spread last 12 away from Carrier Dome. Orange also 9-3 as dog sine last season, though not sure where this number goes post-Grier.
Syracuse, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (Alamo Bowl)...ISU slumped late in season with four straight spread Ls to close campaign though Cyclones were 3-1 SU in those games. ISU was 22-8-1 vs. line in 31 previous games dating to early 2016. Matt Campbell 15-8-1 as dog since taking over at Ames in 2016. Leach was 3-0 vs. spread laying points away from home this season, but Cougs just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Leach. Wazzu 8-11 vs. spread last 19 against non-Pac 12 foes. Note Pac-12 1-8 SU in bowls LY.
Iowa State, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARKANSAS STATE vs. NEVADA (Arizona Bowl)...Red Wolves 1-3 SU and vs. line last four bowls, though they did cover last four this season. Still, only 4-5 vs. spread last nine away from Jonesboro. Wolf Pack dropped last two vs. line this season after 4-game cover streak. Nevada no covers last five vs. non-MW BCS foes.
Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN (Peach Bowl)...Rematch of opener last season won by Harbaugh, 33-17. That was pre-Dan Mullen at Florida; Gators were 8-4 vs. spread in Mullen debut, Michigan 1-4 vs. spread away from Ann Arbor this season, and 2-8 against spread last 10 away from home. Also just 2-6 last 8 as chalk away from Ann Arbor.
Florida, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA (Belk Bowl)...Cavs only 1-3 vs. spread last four in 2018 but overall were 8-4 vs. number this season. Wahoos also 4-1 as dog in 2018. Mendenhall, however, 0-4 SU and vs. line last four bowls. SC 4-1 vs. line away from Williams-Brice this season. Muschamp has won and covered bowls the past two seasons and Gamecocks 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. spread in bowls since 2011.
South Carolina, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA vs. ALABAMA (CFP Orange Bowl)...OU just 2-4 SU and vs. spread last six bowls but did beat Saban in 2013 Sugar Bowl. Lincoln Riley 2-0 as dog (0-0 this season). Saban just 3-5 vs. spread in bowl/playoff games since 2013. Tide just 5-6 vs. line last 11 away from Tuscaloosa.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. CLEMSON (CFP Cotton Bowl)...Dabo 7-1 vs. line last eight bowl/playoff games. Clemson on 10-3 spread uptick since late last season. Tigers also 7-2 vs. points last nine away from Death Valley. Brian Kelly just 2-2 as dog since 2016 (0-0 TY) and Irish 2-4 vs. line last six bowls (both covers vs. LSU).
Clemson, based on team trends.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

Matchup Skinny Edge

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Military Bowl)...Hokies were on a 6-game spread skid this season before winning and covering last two to salvage bowl streak (now 26 straight). VPI only 3-6 as dog since last season. Bearcats only covered 2 of last 6 this campaign after starting 5-1 vs. line. Cincy no wins or covers last three in bowls (though not since 2015).
Slight to Virginia Tech, based on extended trends.

PITTSBURGH vs. STANFORD (Sun Bowl)...Pitt had a 6-game cover streak prior to last two games of season. Panthers 5-3 as dog this season, and Narduzzi 11-6 last 17 getting points. Pitt however 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Stanford 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. spread last four bowls, closed season on 4-1-1 spread uptick. Tree 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 away from Farm, and one of only two Pac-12 teams to cover spread in bowls last year.
Stanford, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. OREGON (Redbox Santa Clara Bowl)...MSU only 4-8 vs. line this season and Dantonio 2-3 as dog after 7-4 mark as short entering 2018. Spartans just 6-9 vs. number last 15 away from East Lansing, though Dantonio 5-1 SU and vs. spread last six bowls. Ducks only 4-7-1 vs. spread this season and are 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Webfoots 2-8-2 last 12 vs. line against non-Pac 12 foes.
Michigan State, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Liberty Bowl)...Mizzou just 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Columbia (though did cover last two away TY). Tigers 3-5 vs. line against non-SEC BS-level foes since last season. Gundy was 4-0 as dog this season, 10-3 in role since 2015, and has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. UTAH (Holiday Bowl)...Underdog side was 11-1-1 in NU games this season with Cats 5-1-1 as short. Pat Fitz has won SU last two bowls but just 1-2 last 3. Kyle Whittingham 10-1 SU in bowls, 8-3 vs. line in those, and 11-6 vs. spread last 17 away from Salt Lake City.
Slight to Utah, based on bowl trends.

NC STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Gator Bowl)...Pack has won and covered last two and 3 of last 4 bowl games. Pack 4-1 vs. spread last five vs. non-ACC. Jimbo 8-4 vs. line TY but just 2-3 vs. points away from home, and only 1-3 last 4 bowls while at FSU.
Slight to NC State, based on team trends.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Matchup Skinny Edge

IOWA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Outback Bowl)...Iowa 9-5 vs. line since late 2017, but Hawks 0-3 as dog in 2018. Ferentz 2-3 vs. spread last five bowls but has covered last four against non-Big Ten foes. Note Hawkeyes on 12-5 “over” run. MSU 16-9 vs. line since last season, 8-4 TY for Moorhead.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY vs. PENN STATE (Citrus Bowl)...UK winless SU last four bowls but did cover in Music City vs. NU last year. Cats 4-1 as dog TY, Stoops 13-7 getting points since 2016. Penn State no covers last three away TY but James Franklin 3-1 vs. line in bowls for Nittany Lions, 5-2 vs. spread in bowls with Vandy years.
Slight to Kentucky, based on recent trends.

LSU vs. UCF (Fiesta Bowl)...Orgeron 2-5 as chalk this season, and LSU just 2-5 vs. spread last seven bowls (1-1 with Orgeron). UCF 4-2 vs. spread last six bowls, 10–3 vs. line since late last season, 5-1 last six vs. points away from home.
UCF, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. OHIO STATE (Rose Bowl)...Huskies only 4-9 vs. line this season, 5-11 last 16 on board. Petersen 1-3 as dog since 2016. U-Dub 2-7 vs. line last 9 against non-Pac 12. Huskies 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Petersen. Urban 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls with Buckeyes, 10-3 SU and vs. line in bowls back to Utah days in 2003.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

TEXAS vs. GEORGIA (Sugar Bowl)...Tom Herman teams 12-2 as dog since 2015 with Houston. Herman 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls. Georgia has covered last five playoff/bowl games, Kirby Smart 2-0 vs. line in those. Bulldogs on 13-5 spread uptick since late 2017.
Slight to Texas, based on Tom Herman dog trends.

Post by **Admin** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:27 pm

Friday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

**Florida International vs. Toledo**

Bahamas Bowl History

-- The Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) from Conference USA take on the Toledo Rockets (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference (MAC) in the Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl.

-- Butch Davis leads his Golden Panthers into the school's fourth-ever bowl game. They won their initial postseason appearance in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl against Toledo by a 34-32 score back in 2010 under Mario Cristobal, now the head honcho at Oregon. Under Davis, FIU is 0-1 after getting trucked 28-3 by Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl last season.

-- Toledo has a much lengthier bowl history, as this will be their 18th postseason game. They were blanked last season by Appalachian State 34-0 in the Dollar General Bowl on Dec. 23, 2017, and each of their past two bowl games have been losses to the Mountaineers. This will be their first appearance in the Bahamas Bowl representing the MAC. After starting out 6-1 in their first seven bowl games the Rockets are 4-6 SU since a loss in the 2002 Motor City Bowl.

-- FIU has been a friend of bettors this season with a 9-3 ATS mark, including covers in their first four games and each of their two games against Power 5 conference members. They became bowl eligible on Oct. 27 at Western Kentucky, earliest in school history for that accomplishment. They followed that up with a stinker against rival Florida Atlantic, falling 49-14 as two-point favorites at home. The 'over' ended up cashing in their final five games, too.

-- Toledo whipped up on VMI of the FCS in their opener, covering a 48 1/2-point number, but they fell the next week to Miami-Florida by a 49-24 score the following week in the Glass Bowl. The Rockets rebounded nicely, though, shooting down Nevada 63-44 as 10 1/2-point favorites in their highest-scoring game of the season (combined points). Toledo went over the 50-point mark on six occasions, and they scored at least 24 points in 10 of their 12 outings.

-- Toledo ranked 30th in the nation with 448.5 total yards per game (YPG), while posting 223.6 yards per contest to check in 22nd in the country. They were also an impressive 11th in points scored, posting 41.1 PPG. Defensively the Rockets had issues, ranking 94th in total yards allowed (430.1 YPG), 105th in passing yards allowed (257.8 YPG) and 78th in rushing yards allowed (172.3 YPG). They also yielded 30.2 PPG to rank 84th. This one could be a shootout, folks.

-- QB James Morgan was impressive for FIU, completing 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,727 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but he is a pro-style QB and will never be misconstrued with a Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson or other athletic, running quarterbacks. He had a trio of dependable receivers in WR CJ Worton (36-620-6), WR Austin Maloney (28-582-5) and WR Maurice Alexander (35-444-5).

-- When Toledo has the ball, it's all about QB Eli Peters. He no longer has QB Mitchell Guadagni (shoulder) breathing down his neck, as the latter is done for the season with an injury. Peters completed 54.6 percent of his passes for 1,573 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is a little more mistake-prone, and less athletic, than Guadagni, who was much more of a dual threat. RB Bryant Koback rushed for 875 yards and 13 scores, while RBs Art Thompkins and Shakif Seymour rolled for a combined 1,089 rushing yards and 11 scores on the ground. WR Cody Thompson is the big-play threat with 10 touchdowns on just 43 grabs, while WR Diontae Johnson and WR Jon'Vea Johnson each had seven receiving scores.

-- FIU has covered four in a row against teams with a winning record, and four of the past five overall. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven non-conference games. However, they're 0-4-1 ATS in the past five tries against MAC foes, and 0-5-1 ATS in the past six neutral-site battles.

-- Toledo has covered four of the past five as well, while going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 on grass. They're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven outside the MAC, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven tries against winning teams.

-- The over has cashed in five in a row for FIU, but the under is 6-2-1 in their past nine games in the month of December.

-- The under is 4-1 in Toledo's past five bowl games, while going 5-1 in their past six neutral-site tilts. The under is also 26-12-1 in their past 39 against winning teams. The over has cashed in four in a row outside of the conference, however.

-- Kickoff is slated for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Western Michigan vs. Brigham Young**

Idaho Potato Bowl History

-- It's time for the 22nd installment of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Albertson's Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The game features the Western Michigan Broncos (7-5 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) of the Mid-American Conference (MAC) against the Brigham Young Cougars (6-6 straight up, 8-4 against the spread), an FBS Independent.

-- Western Michigan will be playing in their ninth-ever bowl game, and their history in the postseason hasn't been great. They're 1-7 SU all-time, with their only victory in the 2015 Bahamas Bowl against Middle Tennessee. This is their second trip to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, losing their last trip in 2014 against Air Force by a 38-24 score.

-- BYU has an extensive bowl history, but lately it hasn't been terribly good. They're 1-3 SU in their past four bowl games, although they did win their last appearance on Dec. 21, 2016 against Wyoming in the Poinsettia Bowl. This will be their first-ever appearance in the Idaho Potato Bowl. They have appearance in a bowl game only once against the MAC, losing 21-3 in the Motor City Bowl on Dec. 27, 1999 against Marshall, then a member of the conference.

-- Western Michigan didn't start out well this season. They were 0-2 SU/ATS in the first two games, losing to Syracuse and Michigan while allowing 104 total points. They turned things around with a 68-0 win over FCS Delaware State, and that kick-started a six-game win streak, including a 4-0 conference start to gain bowl eligibility by Oct. 20. That's good that they wrapped it up early, as they had a three-game conference losing skid from Oct. 25-Nov. 13 before wrapping up the regular season with a 28-21 win against eventual conference champ Northern Illinois. They finished the season 2-6 ATS in the final eight games.

-- BYU had a strange up-and-down season, and you never knew who was going to show up. They won at Arizona 28-23 to kick off the season as 11 1/2-point underdogs, but followed that up with a 21-18 loss at home to California as two-point favorites. So naturally they went to Wisconsin as 23 1/2-point favorites and won outright, 24-21. BYU was waffled by Washington 35-7 on Sept. 29, and they were hammered by Utah State 45-20 on Oct. 5 to slip to 3-3 SU/ATS. They hung 49 on Hawai'i on Oct. 13 in a win, then followed it up with a 7-6 loss at home to Northern Illinois on Oct. 27. While they were also 3-3 SU in the final six games, they did manage an impressive 5-1 ATS mark during the span.

-- Western Michigan ranked 29th in offense, posting 448.8 yards per game, including 205.0 yards per game on the ground to rank 32nd in the country in rushing. They were also 36th in the nation with 33.2 points per game allowed. Defensively they ranked 51st in the country with 378.3 yards per game given up, and 48th in the land in passing yardage (209.3 YPG). The Broncos were tuned up for 33.3 points per game to check in 103rd in the nation.

-- BYU struggled on offense, posting just 354.8 yards per game to finish 108th in the nation. They weren't great passing (94th in the country) or rushing (88th in the country), while posting just 25.4 yards per game to finished 94th. Defense carried the Cougars, ranking 18th with just 325.0 yards per game allowed, 31st in passing yards (195.2 YPG) and 27th in rushing yards (129.8 YPG). They also had a decent 21.7 PPG allowed to finish 28th. And for whatever reason, BYU had the best field-goal percentage against, as opponents made just 33.3 percent of their attempts against the Cougars.

-- Western Michigan lost QB Jon Wassink (foot) to a season-ending injury in late October, so QB Kaleb Eleby was thrust into the starter's job. He completed 64.9 percent of his passes with 917 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Eleby wasn't nearly the dual threat as Wassink, who had 16 passing scores and six rushing TDs. RB LeVante Bellamy is the yardage threat, running for 1,172 yards (6.2 yards per carry) and six scores, while Jamauri Bogan was the hammer in short yardage with 702 yards, 4.5 YPC and 15 touchdowns. WR Jayden Reed led the way with 792 yards and eight scores, and WR D'Wayne Eskridge is a deep threat with 19.9 yards per reception, posting 715 yards and three scores on just 36 grabs.

-- BYU has a handful of injuries heading in, but none more important than RBs Squally Canada (lower body) and Lopini Katoa (knee), the top two backs. RB Matt Hadley, a former linebacker, filled in for the two, but he is done for the season with a leg injury. Katoa (77-427-8) and Canada (91-412-5) split the workload this season. If they cannot go it would be RB Riley Burt (46-213-1) tasked with stepping up. QB Zach Wilson (1,261-8-3) took over the starting job from Tanner Mangum (1,063-5-4) midway through the season, and TE Matt Bushman (25-459-2) and WR Talon Shumway (20-319-3) are the ones to watch in the receiving game.

-- Western is 2-6 ATS over the past eight games overall, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven outside of the conference. They're also 1-4 ATS in the past five following a straight-up win.

-- BYU enters on a four-game cover streak, and they're 10-4 ATS over the past 14 non-conference tilts. However, they're 2-6 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in the past four bowl contests.

-- The 'over' is 4-0 in Western's past four overall, and 4-0 in their past four contests on a fieldturf surface, too. The over is 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a cover.

-- The 'under' is 24-9 in BYU's past 33 games overall, 7-3 in their past 10 neutral-site games and 12-4 in the past 16 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- Kickoff is slated for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Post by **Admin** » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:09 am

Wednesday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

**Boston College vs. Boise State**

First Responder Bowl

-- The Boston College Eagles (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference will battle the Boise State Broncos (10-3 straight up, 7-5-1 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference in the First Responder Bowl, formerly the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

-- The Eagles haven't had a lot of success in bowl games lately. They won the 2016 Quick Lane Bowl over Maryland by a 36-30 count, but that was their only victory in the past seven postseason games dating back to 2008. This will be their first appearnce in the First Responder Bowl, and their first postseason appearance in the state of Texas since they won the 1985 Cotton Bowl over Houston by a 45-28 score.

-- The Broncos have had a much better measure of success in bowl games recently, posting victories in seven of their past nine appearances, including last season over Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl, 38-28. Under head coach Bryan Harsin they're 3-1 in four bowl games in each of the past four seasons. This will be Boise State's first appearance in the First Responder Bowl, and their first bowl game in the Lone Star State since dropping TCU 34-31 in the Fort Worth Bowl back on Dec. 23, 2003.

-- B.C. had an exciting season and they outperformed expectations like they usually do. The fired out of the box with three wins against UMass, Holy Cross and at Wake Forest to start 3-0 SU/ATS with an 'over' in each outing. They were humbled at Purdue Sept. 22 by a 30-13 count, but they beat fellow bowl team Temple 45-35 on Sept. 29. A narrow loss and cover at N.C. State was a tough pill to swallow, but they rattled off three straight ACC wins against Louisville, Miami and at Virginia Tech to easily attain bowl eligibility. The Eagles finished on a three-game slide and non-cover streak with losses to Clemson, Florida State and Syracuse, all bowl teams.

-- The Eagles were rather marginal in all aspects, ranking 66th in the country in total yards (404.4 yards per game), 80th in passing yards (215.2 YPG) and 51st in rushing yards (189.2 YPG). Defensively they were just 71st overall in total yards allowed (403.2 YPG), and 96th against the pass (247.8 YPG). They were slightly better in rushing defense (155.3 YPG) and points allowed (25.7 PPG), ranking 53rd overall in both areas.

-- Boise opened with an emphatic 56-20 win at Troy on Sept. 1, and they squashed UConn 62-7 as 34-point favorites in Game 2. However, they were overmatched by Power 5 Conference member Oklahoma State, and they were tripped up at home on the Smurf Turf against San Diego State to sit 3-2 SU/ATS through five games. That's when their run started, posting seven straight wins to qualify for the MWC title game. They were tripped up by Fresno State in overtime by a 19-16 score in a snowstorm. The 'under' ended up 5-0 in their final five ames, and 7-2 in the final nine.

-- The Broncos ranked 23rd in total yards (459.5 YPG), while ranking 18th in the nation with 292.0 passing yards per outing. They also checked in 24th in the land with 35.4 points per game. Defensively, Boise State was 38th overall with 355.9 YPG allowed, and they were tough against the run at 23rd in the nation with 122.9 YPG. They also yielded just 22.1 PPG, 31st overall.

-- Top RB A.J. Dillon (ankle) is listed as questionable due to an ankle injury he has been hampered with in the second half of the season. He piled up a team-best 1,108 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

-- B.C. is 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 against winning teams, 3-1-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games and 15-6-1 ATS in the past 22 overall. They're just 2-7 ATS in the past nine bowl games, however, and 1-9 ATS in their past 10 appearances in the month of December.

-- Boise is 7-3 ATS across their past 10 bowl appearances, while going 9-4 ATS in the past 13 neutral-site battles. However, they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 games played in December.

-- The over has hit in each of B.C.'s past four bowl appearances while going 5-1 in their past six non-conference tilts. The under is 4-1 in their past five games overall, however.

-- The under has cashed in five straight for Boise State, and is also 5-0 in their past five against winning teams. However, the over is 5-2 in their past seven bowl contests.

-- These teams last met Dec. 28, 2005 in the MPC Computers Bowl in Boise, with Boston College coming away with a 27-21 win.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech**

Quick Lane Bowl

-- In the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit we get the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference squaring off against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the ACC.

-- Minnesota appeared in this game in 2015, winning 21-14 while covering (-6) against Central Michigan. Georgia Tech is making its first appearance in the game.

-- After an ugly seven-game bowl losing streak, that Quick Lane appearance in 2015 kicked off a two-game bowl win streak which also incluced a 17-12 win over Washington State in the 2016 Holiday Bowl.

-- The Yellow Jackets also had their own streak of misery in bowl games, dropping seven in a row from 2005-11. However, they're 3-1 in their past four postseason games, including a 33-18 slaying of Kentucky in the 2016 TaxSlayer Bowl. Neither of these teams appeared in a bowl game last season.

-- The Gophers started out 3-0 SU/ATS, including an impressive 21-14 win over Group of 5 contender Fresno State back on Sept. 8. They dropped four in a row from Sept. 22-Oct. 20, including lopsided losses to Maryland, Iowa, Ohio State and Nebraska, and things appeared to be going off the rails. They recorded a 38-31 win over Indiana to cover as 2 1/2-point 'dogs, but a 55-31 loss at Illinois put their bowl eligibility in doubt. However, they humbled Purdue 41-10 and beat the pants off of Wisconsin 37-15 in Madison to punch their ticket to the postseason in emphatic fashion.

-- The Yellow Jackets didn't get their first win against an FBS foe until Sept. 29, stomping Bowling Green 63-17. They pled up the points at Louisville the following week, winning 66-31 against a bad Cardinals side. Perhaps their most impressive win came Oct. 25, going to Blacksburg to push aside Virginia Tech 49-28. They gained bowl eligibility Nov. 10 with a 27-21 win over Miami, and topped Virginia 30-27 in overtime on Nov. 17 for good measure. They weren't up to the task against rival Georgia in Athens to close out the season, losing 45-21.

-- The Ramblin' Wreck ranked No. 1 in the country with 335.0 yards per game, and they were 21st in points scored with 35.6 PPG. They don't really pass the ball, as Paul Johnson's club uses the triple-option. Defensively they were adequate, ranking 45th in the country (367.8 YPG), while ranking 55th in passing yards allowed (217.9 YPG) and 50th in rush defense (149.8 YPG).

-- Ga. Tech QB TaQuon Marshall passed for just 824 yards while completing only 44.0 percent of his passes. That's not his thing. Running is his thing, and he led the team with 897 yards on the ground while piercing the end zone 11 times. TB Tobias Oliver had a team-high 12 rushing touchdowns with 807 yards on the ground (5.6 YPC). RBs Jordan Mason also had seven rushing scores and 6.2 yards per tote, and eight different Jackets had at least two rushing scores (45 total).

-- Minny had difficulty on offense, ranking 68th in the country in points scored (28.5 PPG). They also were just 89th in total yards (379.0 YPG). They'll have their hands full against the run, and they ranked just 74th in the nation in that category with 170.7 YPG. They also gave up 27.9 PPG to check in 75th in the nation.

-- For the Gophers, WR Tyler Johnson is the most dangerous player on offense, gathering 74 receptions for 1,112 yards and 10 touchdowns (15.0 average).

-- The Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS over the past five non-conference games, but they're just 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight games following a straight-up victory. They're also 0-4 ATS in the past four following a cover.

-- The Jackets have an impressive 4-0-1 ATS mark over the past five neutral-site battles, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five outside the ACC. They are 5-1 ATS in the past six games played in the month of December, however.

-- The under has connected in six of the past eight non-Big 10 games for Minnesota, while going 4-0 in their past four against teams with a winning record.

-- For Ga. Tech, the over is 6-2-1 across their past nine games overall, but the under has hit in six of the past eight bowl appearances.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between Minnesota and Georgia Tech.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Texas Christian vs. California**

Cheez-It Bowl

-- In the Cheez-It Bowl (the bowl formerly known as the Cactus Bowl), takes place at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ariz. The game features the Texas Christian Horned Frogs (6-6 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) of the Big 12 Conference facing off against the California Golden Bears (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Pac-12 Conference.

-- The Horned Frogs have appeared in bowl games in six consecutive seasons, and they have won nine of their past 12 postseason tilts. However, they were edged 17-16 in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl by Michigan State on Dec. 29, 2012 in their most recent bowl appearance in the state of Arizona. Since 2000, Gary Patterson has led his team to 17 bowls, going 10-6 heading into this one. They're also 3-0 all-time in bowl games against current Pac-12 members.

-- The Golden Bears won their most recent bowl appearance on Dec. 29, 2015 aginst Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, 55-36. Cal is also 5-2 SU in the past seven bowl games, and 9-4 SU in the past 13. They won the Insight Bowl on Dec. 26, 2003 in this stadium, topping Virginia Tech 52-49 in a thriller. They also won the Copper Bowl on Dec. 31, 1990 in Tucson against Wyoming in their only other appearance in a bowl game in Arizona.

-- TCU opened 2-0, including a 42-12 drumming of SMU on the road. They lost a 40-28 game in Arlington, Tex. against Ohio State, and followed that up with a 31-16 loss at Texas to fall to 2-2 SU/ATS. The Horned Frogs picked up a 17-14 win on Sept. 29 against a good Iowa State side, but lost three in a row to Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas to put their bowl eligibility in danger. The loss to the Jayhawks was the real head-scratcher. However, they won three of their final four, including a 31-24 decision against Oklahoma State on Nov. 24 to secure their postseason ticket.

-- TCU was 93rd in total yards (374.6 YPG), while ranking 95th in rushing offense (148.5 YPG) and 98th in points scored (24.7 PPG). On defense, they're 28th in yardage allowed (344.4 YPG), while ranking 40th against the pass (202.6 YPG), 42nd against the rush (141.8 YPG) and 45th in points allowed (24.4 PPG).

-- Cal fired out of the gate with a 3-0 SU/1-1-1 ATS mark, including a nice 21-18 victory at BYU. They fell in three in a row from Sept. 29-Oct. 13, including a bad loss to previously winless UCLA. However, they impressed with a 12-10 win against Washington on Oct. 27, lost a narrow (but covered!) game at Washington State on Nov. 3, and won at USC on Nov. 10 for the first time at L.A. Coliseum since 2000, and first time in the series since 2003 when QB Aaron Rodgers was under center in Berkeley. They lost a rescheduled game at home Dec. 1 against Stanford after entering 'The Big Game' on a 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS run.

-- The Golden Bears offense was rather atrocious in 2018, as they ranked just 111th in the country in total yards (350.2 YPG). If they do anything well, it's run the ball, ranking 75th with 162.5 YPG, but they managed just 22.8 YPG to finish 108th overall. Defensively the Golden Bears are strong, allowing just 319.4 YPG to finish 16th in the nation, they're 23rd overall with 21.2 PPG allowed and 23rd against the pass, too.

-- TCU has quarterback issues, as QBs Shawn Robinson (shoulder) and QB Justin Rogers (knee) were lost for the season, and QB Michael Collins (foot) is listed as doubtful. The signal-caller duties will fall on QB Grayson Muehlstein, who threw for 328 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions this season, including 180 yards and two TDs in the final against OK State.

-- Cal enters 5-1 ATS over the past six games, and they're 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight non-conference battles. However, they're 1-5 ATS in the past six neutral-site games and 1-5 ATS in the past six in the month of December.

-- TCU is just 2-7 ATS in their past nine overall and 3-10 ATS in the past 13 neutral-site games, including earlier this season against Ohio State. They're 2-8 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning record and 2-7 ATS in their past nine bowl games.

-- The under has cashed in seven of the past eight for California, while going 5-0 in their past five games on a grass surface. The over is 9-2 in their past 11 neutral-site games and 7-2 in the past nine bowl games.

-- The over is 4-1 in TCU's past five neutral-site games and 4-1 in their past five outside of the conference. The under is 8-3-1 in their past 12 bowl games, however, and 7-3 in the past nine played in December.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between Cal and TCU on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Post by **Admin** » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:32 am

Thursday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

**Duke vs. Temple**

Independence Bowl

-- The Duke Blue Devils (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference will square off against the Temple Owls (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl.

-- Prior to the arrival of head coach David Cutcliffe the Blue Devils of Duke had appeared in just eight postseason games, going 3-5. Since the 2012 season, Duke has appeared in a bowl game in six of the past seven seasons, including victories in each of their past two appearances against Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl in 2015, and Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl last season.

-- The Owls do not have an extensive bowl history, as this will be just their eighth-ever appearance in the postseason. Much of that success has been recently, as they appeared in only the Sugar Bowl (1934) with head coach Pop Warner and the Garden State Bowl (1979) prior to 2009. Since 2009 they're 2-3 in bowl games, winning last season's Gasparilla Bowl over Florida International.

-- Temple will be led by interim head coach Ed Foley, as Geoff Collins accepted the head coaching job at Georgia Tech. Oddly enough, Foley also was the interim when Matt Rhule bolted for Baylor and he will be the only head coach in Temple history to coach the team in two separate bowl games.

-- Duke fired out to a 4-0 SU start, covering their first three. That includes wins over bowl teams Army and Northwestern. They suffered a 31-14 loss against Virginia Tech on Sept. 29, and lost against Virginia at home on Oct. 20. They also fell at Pittsburgh, 54-45, on Oct. 27. Duke was outscored 82-13 in the final two games by Clemson and Wake Forest. The Blue Devils were a tough team to figure, as they went 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in five games as an underdog, and 2-5 SU/1-6 ATS in seven games as a favorite. Bettors might be relieved to see Duke catching 3 1/2 from Temple in this one, as of Wednesday morning.

-- Temple suffered losses to FCS Villanova and Buffalo to start the season, and it looked like it might be a lost season under Collins. They bounced back with a 35-14 win at Maryland on Sept. 15, which perhaps saved their season, and they rattled off wins in five of the next six games. They secured bowl eligibility over Houston, 59-49, on the road Nov. 10, and closed out the season with three straight wins.

-- Temple heads into this one ranked 50th in total yards (420.8 yards per game) while finishing 41st in passing yards (255.8 YPG). They also rolled up 35.6 points per game (PPG) to finished 23rd in the nation. Defensively, the Owls have it on lock down. They were 39th in total yards (356.7 YPG) while checking in seventh in the land against the pass (166.3 YPG). The Owls also finished 47th in the nation in points allowed (24.7 PPG).

-- Duke managed to finish 75th in total yards with 392.6 yards per game, and they were 66th in passing yards (229.6 YPG). Defensively the Blue Devils had some major issues, especially near the end of the season. They ranked 82nd in total yards allowed (419.4 YPG) and 116th in the nation with 222.3 yards per game allowed on the ground. The Blue Devils were also 70th in the country with 27.4 PPG allowed.

-- For Duke, QB Daniel Jones (lower body) is listed as questionable. He threw for 2,251 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also running for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

-- For Temple, QB Anthony Russo (hand) is listed as probable. He managed to pass for 2,335 yards with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. RB Ryquell Armstead (ankle) is listed as questionable, while third-leading receiver Randle Jones (undisclosed) is also listed as questionable.

-- Temple has posted a 14-6 ATS mark over their past 20 games against winning teams while going 37-17 ATS in the past 54 overall.

-- Duke has covered in four straight bowl games while also posted a 4-0 ATS mark in the past four neutral-site appearances. They have covered seven of the past nine against teams with a winning record, too.

-- The 'under' has hit in five of the past six games in the month of December for Temple, although the over is 4-1 in their past five vs. ACC foes.

-- The 'over' has connected in five straight bowl games for Duke, while going a perfect 4-0 in their past four neutral-site affairs. The under is 4-0 in their past four against winning teams, however.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between the Blue Devils and the Owls.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Miami-Florida vs. Wisconsin**

Pinstripe Bowl

-- In the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in New York the Miami Hurricanes (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the ACC will take on the Wisconsin Badgers (7-5 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) from the Big Ten. It's a rematch of last season's Orange Bowl when the Badgers pushed aside the Hurricanes 34-24.

-- The Hurricanes were once one of the most feared bowl opponents, and they went 7-1 SU in an eight-game stretch from 1996-2004. However, they're just 1-7 SU over their past eight bowl appearances, with a lone win in the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 28, 2016 against West Virginia.

-- The Badgers enter on a four-game bowl win streak, including last season's Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl in the season before. They also faced the Hurricanes in the Champs Sports Bowl back on Dec. 29, 2009, winning that one 20-14 in Orlando.

-- Miami had an up-and-down season. They lost a neutral-site game against LSU to start the season, but won five in a row from Sept. 8-Oct. 6. However, they dropped four in a row at Virginia, at Boston College, home to Duke and at Georgia Tech, slipping to 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS. However, the Canes enter this one on a two-game win streak, outscoring Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh by a 62-17 margin.

-- Wisconsin won four of their first five games, but they were just 1-4 ATS during the span. They struggled away from home, losing at Michigan, at Northwester and at Penn State. They ended up covering just three of their 12 games overall, including a 37-15 loss at home to Minnesota in the season finale.

-- The Badgers ranked 38th in total yards (437.0 YPG) while posted 268.4 yards per game on the ground to finish seventh in the nation. QB Alex Hornibrook (concussion) will be missing in this one due to injury. RB Jonathan Taylor is the one to watch, as they'll lean heavily upon him. He rushed for 1,989 yards (7.1 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns.

-- The Hurricanes were outstanding on defense, ranking second in the nation in total yards allowed (268.1 YPG) while ranking first overall in passing yards allowed (140.8 YPG). They were also strong against the run, ranking 25th (127.2 YPG), so Taylor will have his work cut out. They also were 15th in the country with 18.2 PPG. On offense, Miami was just 92nd overall in total yards (374.6 YPG) and 109th in passing yards (177.2 YPG).

-- The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS over the past seven games overall, while going 1-6 ATS across the past seven bowl appearances. They're also just 1-6 ATS in their past seven tries against teams with a winning overall record and 1-8 ATS in the past nine neutral-site affairs.

-- The Badgers are 1-4 ATS over their past five outings, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. They're also 3-8 ATS in the past 11 neutral-site battles.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four of Miami's past five bowl games, while going 5-0 in their past five against teams with a winning record. They're also 5-0-1 in the past six games overall, and 6-1 in their past seven games on a neutral-site field.

-- The under has hit in four of the past five for Wisconsin, while also going 4-1 in their past five neutral-site affairs.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Vanderbilt vs. Baylor**

Texas Bowl

-- The Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl takes place at NRG Stadium in Houston, so the Baylor Bears (6-6 straight-up, 5-6-1 against the spread) of the Big 12 might have the advantage in terms of crowd support. They'll take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6 straight up, 8-4 against the spread).

-- Baylor is searching for its first-ever three-game win streak in bowl games. They took care of Boise State at the 2016 Cactus Bowl in their most recent postseason appearance, 31-12. They're 4-2 SU over the past six bowl apperances. The Bears made one other appearance in the Texas Bowl back on 2010, but they were hammered 38-14 by Illinois in the first bowl under Art Briles.

-- Vanderbilt does not have an extensive bowl history, but they're a respectable 4-3-1 SU in their eight postseason appearances. They lost their last bowl game in 2016, falling 41-17 to N.C. State in the Independence Bowl. This is their first-ever appearance in the Texas Bowl.

-- The Bears won their first two games against Abilene Christian and Texas-San Antonio, and the over finished in both of those games and five of their first six overall. They fell against Duke for the second straight season, and were doubled up at Oklahoma 66-33 on Sept. 29. They lost four of five games from Oct. 13 to Nov. 17, although the four losses came against bowl teams. The lone win was a 35-31 victory against Oklahoma State as six-point 'dogs. They wrapped up bowl eligibility with a 35-24 win at Texas Tech on Nov. 24.

-- The Commodores opened with wins over Middle Tennessee and Nevada, but they suffered their first loss 22-17 at Notre Dame on Sept. 15. The 'Dores sat 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS after a loss at Kentucky on Oct. 20. However, the Commodores racked up a 36-29 overtime win against Ole Miss and a rare win over Tennessee, 38-13, to close out the season with bowl eligibility.

-- Baylor's offense was solid this season, as they posted 441.7 YPG to rank 34th in the country, and 22nd in passing yard per game (282.2 YPG). Their weak point was rushing the ball, posting just 159.5 YPG to finish 81st. Defensively the Bears were very subpar, ranking 77th in total yards (412.6 YPG) allowed, 79th in passing yards (237.6 YPG) allowed and 79th in rushing yards (175.0 YPG) allowed.

-- Baylor backup RB JaMycal Hasty (knee) is listed as questionable due to a knee. He ran for 376 yards (5.1 YPC) with three scores, while leading WR Jalen Hurd (knee), who posted 69 grabs, 946 yards and four touchdowns, is ruled out with a knee.

-- Vandy ranked 69th in total yards per game (397.8 YPG) while ending up 56th in the country in passing yards (240.2 YPG) They were also so-so in points scored, ranking 76th in the nation with 27.7 PPG. On defense, they ranked 83rd in total yards allowed (419.8 YPG) while finishing 88th against the run (187.2 YPG). The Commodores were able to be a bend-don't-break defense, giving up 25.1 PPG to finish 48th in the country.

-- Vanderbilt RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn (arm), the team's leading rusher, is listed as questionable with an arm injury. He was the team's most explosive offensive option with 1,001 rushing yards (7.0 YPC) and 10 scores on the ground while adding two more TDs through the air.

-- The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games played in the month of December, but 0-5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference games while going 4-11-1 ATS in the past 16 following a straight-up win.

-- The Commodores have covered five in a row while going 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference battles. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on a fieldturf.

-- The under has cashed in four in a row for Baylor while going 7-1 in the past eight in the month of December. The over is 20-8 in their past 28 non-conference battles, however, and 10-4 in the past 14 neutral-site contests.

-- The over has hit in four straight bowl games for Vandy. However, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, 7-1 in the past eight non-conference games and 8-3 across the past 11 fieldturf battles.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between Baylor and Vandy on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

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