** NCAA Trends and Index - Week 3 **

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NCAAF Trends and Indexes

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105KANSAS -106 BOSTON COLLEGE
BOSTON COLLEGE is 16-6 ATS (9.4 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

107WASHINGTON ST -108 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a home win in the last 3 seasons.

109OHIO ST -110 INDIANA
INDIANA is 8-39 ATS (-34.9 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

113NC STATE -114 W VIRGINIA
NC STATE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as a road fav. of <=7 since 1992.

121E MICHIGAN -122 ILLINOIS
ILLINOIS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in home games off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.

123ARKANSAS ST -124 GEORGIA
ARKANSAS ST is 19-8 ATS (10.2 Units) in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992.

125AIR FORCE -126 COLORADO
AIR FORCE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

127SAN DIEGO ST -128 NEW MEXICO ST
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) after going over the total in the last 3 seasons.

129FLA ATLANTIC -130 BALL ST
BALL ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after going over the total in the last 3 seasons.

131NEW MEXICO -132 NOTRE DAME
NEW MEXICO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

133AKRON -134 C MICHIGAN
C MICHIGAN is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.

135STANFORD -136 UCF
STANFORD is 35-16 ATS (17.4 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.

137ALABAMA -138 S CAROLINA
S CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a game at home in the last 3 seasons.

139E CAROLINA -140 NAVY
NAVY is 56-23 ATS (30.7 Units) off a home win since 1992.

141ARMY -142 UTSA
UTSA is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 3 seasons.

143USC -144 BYU
USC is 23-9 ATS (13.1 Units) in road games after 2 straight overs since 1992.

147UNLV -148 NORTHWESTERN
UNLV is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

149OKLAHOMA ST -150 TULSA
OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

151MEMPHIS -152 S ALABAMA
MEMPHIS are 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.

155COLORADO ST -156 ARKANSAS
COLORADO ST is 36-17 ATS (17.3 Units) in road games after a blowout win (>17 pts) since 1992.

157W KENTUCKY -158 LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse in the last 3 seasons.

159ARIZONA ST -160 MICHIGAN ST
MICHIGAN ST is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) as a home fav. of 10.5-14 since 1992.

161NORTH TEXAS -162 CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

163LOUISIANA TECH -164 BOWLING GREEN
BOWLING GREEN is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in September games in the last 3 seasons.

165BUFFALO -166 LIBERTY
LIBERTY is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

165BUFFALO -166 LIBERTY
Hugh Freeze is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) in home games after going under the total (All games)

167SOUTHERN MISS -168 TROY
TROY is 21-8 ATS (12.2 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.

169MASSACHUSETTS -170 CHARLOTTE
MASSACHUSETTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.

171OHIO U -172 MARSHALL
OHIO U is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992.

177GEORGIA ST -178 W MICHIGAN
GEORGIA ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

179TEXAS ST -180 SMU
SMU is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) with <=6 days rest since 1992.

181DUKE -182 MIDDLE TENN ST
DUKE is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games after a win in the last 3 seasons.

183HAWAII -184 WASHINGTON
HAWAII is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) after an ATS loss in the last 3 seasons.

185TCU -186 PURDUE
PURDUE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.

187CLEMSON -188 SYRACUSE
CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after 2+ SU wins over the last 2 seasons.

189FLORIDA ST -190 VIRGINIA
FLORIDA ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.

191OKLAHOMA -192 UCLA
UCLA is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

195TEXAS -196 RICE
TEXAS are 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.

197TEXAS TECH -198 ARIZONA
TEXAS TECH is 89-59 ATS (24.1 Units) after playing a game at home since 1992.

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, September 13

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N CAROLINA (2 - 0) at WAKE FOREST (2 - 0) - 9/13/2019, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS (1 - 1) at BOSTON COLLEGE (2 - 0) - 9/13/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 132-169 ATS (-53.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
KANSAS is 132-169 ATS (-53.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
KANSAS is 83-118 ATS (-46.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
KANSAS is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.
KANSAS is 50-83 ATS (-41.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
KANSAS is 50-83 ATS (-41.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
KANSAS is 103-134 ATS (-44.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON ST (2 - 0) vs. HOUSTON (1 - 1) - 9/13/2019, 9:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, September 14

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OHIO ST (2 - 0) at INDIANA (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 191-148 ATS (+28.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 191-148 ATS (+28.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 173-133 ATS (+26.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 71-46 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OHIO ST is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
OHIO ST is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
INDIANA is 81-112 ATS (-42.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
INDIANA is 91-121 ATS (-42.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 1-1 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS ST (2 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI ST (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NC STATE (2 - 0) at W VIRGINIA (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MARYLAND (2 - 0) at TEMPLE (1 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI OHIO (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at PENN ST (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
PENN ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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E MICHIGAN (1 - 1) at ILLINOIS (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 133-174 ATS (-58.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 133-174 ATS (-58.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 90-134 ATS (-57.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARKANSAS ST (1 - 1) at GEORGIA (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AIR FORCE (1 - 0) at COLORADO (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO ST (2 - 0) at NEW MEXICO ST (0 - 2) - 9/14/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 94-133 ATS (-52.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLA ATLANTIC (0 - 2) at BALL ST (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW MEXICO (1 - 0) at NOTRE DAME (1 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 2:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AKRON (0 - 2) at C MICHIGAN (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AKRON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 1-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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STANFORD (1 - 1) at UCF (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ALABAMA (2 - 0) at S CAROLINA (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ALABAMA is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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E CAROLINA (1 - 1) at NAVY (1 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 174-131 ATS (+29.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 174-131 ATS (+29.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 158-118 ATS (+28.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
E CAROLINA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARMY (1 - 1) at UTSA (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UTSA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
UTSA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UTSA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UTSA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
UTSA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
UTSA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
UTSA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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USC (2 - 0) at BYU (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GA SOUTHERN (1 - 1) at MINNESOTA (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UNLV (1 - 1) at NORTHWESTERN (0 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 92-130 ATS (-51.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OKLAHOMA ST (2 - 0) at TULSA (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (2 - 0) at S ALABAMA (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
S ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 1-0 straight up against S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IOWA (2 - 0) at IOWA ST (1 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 2-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO ST (1 - 1) at ARKANSAS (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 1-0 straight up against ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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W KENTUCKY (1 - 1) vs. LOUISVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
W KENTUCKY is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 1-0 straight up against W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA ST (2 - 0) at MICHIGAN ST (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
MICHIGAN ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against Pac Twelve conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 1-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NORTH TEXAS (1 - 1) at CALIFORNIA (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 62-87 ATS (-33.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOUISIANA TECH (1 - 1) at BOWLING GREEN (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 1) at LIBERTY (0 - 2) - 9/14/2019, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LIBERTY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SOUTHERN MISS (1 - 1) at TROY (1 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MASSACHUSETTS (0 - 2) at CHARLOTTE (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MASSACHUSETTS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
MASSACHUSETTS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MASSACHUSETTS is 1-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OHIO U (1 - 1) at MARSHALL (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KENT ST (1 - 1) at AUBURN (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLORIDA (2 - 0) at KENTUCKY (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA ST (2 - 0) at W MICHIGAN (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS ST (0 - 2) at SMU (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DUKE (1 - 1) at MIDDLE TENN ST (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HAWAII (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TCU (1 - 0) at PURDUE (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEMSON (2 - 0) at SYRACUSE (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 1-1 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA ST (1 - 1) at VIRGINIA (2 - 0) - 9/14/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OKLAHOMA (2 - 0) at UCLA (0 - 2) - 9/14/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 1-0 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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N ILLINOIS (1 - 1) at NEBRASKA (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 77-47 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 77-47 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 103-74 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS (1 - 1) vs. RICE (0 - 2) - 9/14/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (2 - 0) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/14/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 128-91 ATS (+27.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ARIZONA is 139-175 ATS (-53.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 139-175 ATS (-53.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 116-151 ATS (-50.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ARIZONA is 88-130 ATS (-55.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Admin]

NCAAF

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Friday, September 13

North Carolina @ Wake Forest
North Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina's last 5 games on the road
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Wake Forest
Wake Forest is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wake Forest's last 5 games when playing North Carolina

Kansas @ Boston College
Kansas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas's last 6 games
Kansas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston College
Boston College is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston College's last 7 games at home

Washington State @ Houston
Washington State
Washington State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Washington State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games


Saturday, September 14

Arkansas State @ Georgia
Arkansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arkansas State's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arkansas State's last 7 games on the road
Georgia
Georgia is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
Georgia is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games

Kansas State @ Mississippi State
Kansas State
Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Mississippi State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Chattanooga @ Tennessee
Chattanooga
Chattanooga is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chattanooga is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

North Carolina State @ West Virginia
North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina State's last 7 games
West Virginia
West Virginia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
West Virginia is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Penn State
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Penn State
Penn State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Furman @ Virginia Tech
Furman
Furman is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Furman is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home

Eastern Michigan @ Illinois
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games
Eastern Michigan is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Illinois's last 16 games at home
Illinois is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

Ohio State @ Indiana
Ohio State
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Indiana
Indiana is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Ohio State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games

Maryland @ Temple
Maryland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games
Maryland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Temple
Temple
Temple is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Temple is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Miami-OH @ Cincinnati
Miami-OH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-OH's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Miami-OH is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami-OH
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami-OH

The Citadel @ Georgia Tech
The Citadel
The Citadel is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The Citadel is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games
Georgia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Tech's last 5 games at home
Georgia Tech is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home

Air Force @ Colorado
Air Force
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Air Force's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Air Force's last 7 games
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games
Colorado is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home

Florida Atlantic @ Ball State
Florida Atlantic
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Florida Atlantic's last 12 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Ball State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ball State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ball State's last 7 games

Norfolk State @ Coastal Carolina
Norfolk State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Norfolk State's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Norfolk State's last 7 games on the road
Coastal Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Coastal Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Coastal Carolina's last 6 games

New Mexico @ Notre Dame
New Mexico
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico's last 6 games
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Notre Dame is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games

Akron @ Central Michigan
Akron
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Akron's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 5 games when playing Central Michigan
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Akron
Central Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Akron

Alabama @ South Carolina
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Alabama is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games
South Carolina
South Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Carolina's last 6 games when playing Alabama

Stanford @ Central Florida
Stanford
Stanford is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Stanford's last 9 games on the road
Central Florida
Central Florida is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
Central Florida is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home

Southern California @ Brigham Young
Southern California
Southern California is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Southern California is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brigham Young's last 9 games at home

Army @ Texas-San Antonio
Army
Army is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Army is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Texas-San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas-San Antonio's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas-San Antonio's last 9 games

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulsa
Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tulsa's last 13 games

Georgia Southern @ Minnesota
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Nevada-Las Vegas @ Northwestern
Nevada-Las Vegas
Nevada-Las Vegas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 6 games
Northwestern
Northwestern is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Northwestern's last 24 games at home

Memphis @ South Alabama
Memphis
Memphis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 9 games
South Alabama
The total has gone OVER in 10 of South Alabama's last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Alabama's last 7 games at home

East Carolina @ Navy
East Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of East Carolina's last 5 games when playing Navy
East Carolina is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Navy
Navy is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Navy's last 5 games when playing East Carolina

Colorado State @ Arkansas
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado State's last 9 games on the road
Arkansas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas's last 5 games
Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Southeastern Louisiana @ Mississippi
Southeastern Louisiana
Southeastern Louisiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Southeastern Louisiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Mississippi
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 7 games at home

Arizona State @ Michigan State
Arizona State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona State's last 6 games
Arizona State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Michigan State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Michigan State's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games at home

Western Kentucky @ Louisville
Western Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Louisville
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Louisville's last 10 games
Louisville is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games

Bethune-Cookman @ Miami-FL
Bethune-Cookman
Bethune-Cookman is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Bethune-Cookman is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami-FL's last 9 games
Miami-FL is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home

Iowa @ Iowa State
Iowa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa's last 5 games on the road
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Iowa State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

North Texas @ California
North Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of North Texas's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of North Texas's last 13 games
California
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of California's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California's last 6 games at home

Cal Poly @ Oregon State
Cal Poly
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cal Poly's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cal Poly's last 6 games on the road
Oregon State
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Oregon State's last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 6 games at home

Idaho State @ Utah
Idaho State
Idaho State is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Idaho State is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
Utah
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Idaho @ Wyoming
Idaho
Idaho is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Idaho is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games
Wyoming
Wyoming is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Wyoming is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Louisiana Tech @ Bowling Green
Louisiana Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Louisiana Tech's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana Tech's last 7 games on the road
Bowling Green
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 5 games
Bowling Green is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games

Buffalo @ Liberty
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games
Liberty
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Liberty's last 5 games
Liberty is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Massachusetts @ Charlotte
Massachusetts
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Massachusetts's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Massachusetts's last 15 games
Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games at home
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

South Carolina State @ South Florida
South Carolina State
South Carolina State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
South Carolina State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
South Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games
South Florida is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home

Southern Miss @ Troy
Southern Miss
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Southern Miss's last 9 games on the road
Southern Miss is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Troy
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Troy is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Ohio @ Marshall
Ohio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games on the road
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Marshall
Marshall is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Ohio
Marshall is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ohio

Kent State @ Auburn
Kent State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kent State's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kent State's last 6 games on the road
Auburn
Auburn is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Florida @ Kentucky
Florida
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kentucky's last 5 games

Lamar @ Texas A&M
Lamar
Lamar is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Lamar is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Texas A&M
Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Texas A&M is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Duke @ Middle Tennessee
Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Duke's last 12 games on the road
Duke is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Middle Tennessee's last 7 games

Weber State @ Nevada
Weber State
Weber State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Weber State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Nevada
Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Nevada is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

New Hampshire @ Florida International
New Hampshire
New Hampshire is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
New Hampshire is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Florida International
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida International's last 8 games
Florida International is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Texas State @ Southern Methodist
Texas State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas State's last 5 games
Texas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 6 games

Murray State @ Toledo
Murray State
Murray State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Murray State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Toledo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games
Toledo is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home

Georgia State @ Western Michigan
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia State's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia State's last 9 games
Western Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Western Michigan's last 7 games
Western Michigan is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

Northwestern State @ Louisiana State
Northwestern State
Northwestern State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Northwestern State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana State's last 5 games
Louisiana State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri
Southeast Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Southeast Missouri State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Missouri
Missouri is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri's last 5 games at home

Hawaii @ Washington
Hawaii
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hawaii's last 6 games on the road
Hawaii is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Clemson @ Syracuse
Clemson
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Syracuse
Syracuse is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Syracuse's last 7 games when playing Clemson

Florida State @ Virginia
Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games when playing Virginia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Virginia
Virginia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia's last 5 games when playing at home against Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia's last 5 games when playing Florida State

Texas Christian @ Purdue
Texas Christian
Texas Christian is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Texas Christian's last 11 games on the road
Purdue
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Purdue's last 5 games

Texas Southern @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Texas Southern
Texas Southern is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas Southern is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Oklahoma @ California-Los Angeles
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Oklahoma is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games on the road
California-Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of California-Los Angeles's last 6 games at home
California-Los Angeles is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games

San Diego State @ New Mexico State
San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 6 games
San Diego State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
New Mexico State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New Mexico State's last 14 games at home

Texas @ Rice
Texas
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rice
Texas is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Rice
Rice is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Rice is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas

Northern Illinois @ Nebraska
Northern Illinois
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games
Nebraska
Nebraska is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Nebraska is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

Missouri State @ Tulane
Missouri State
Missouri State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Missouri State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Tulane
Tulane is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulane's last 5 games at home

Portland State @ Boise State
Portland State
Portland State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boise State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boise State's last 5 games at home
Boise State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

Texas Tech @ Arizona
Texas Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas Tech's last 8 games on the road
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Montana @ Oregon
Montana
Montana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Montana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Oregon
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Admin]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3


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09-09-2019, 11:04 AM #7


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Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

College Football Week 2 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 67-7
Against the Spread 36-35-3

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 58-16
Against the Spread 35-36-3

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 38-36

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 147-16
Against the Spread 77-81-5

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 128-31
Against the Spread 74-80-5

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 77-85-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
California (+13.5, ML +450) at Washington, 20-19
Western Kentucky (+8, ML +260) at FIU, 20-14
San Diego State (+7.5, ML +260) at UCLA, 23-14
Coastal Carolina (+7, ML +240) at Kansas, 12-7
North Carolina (+5, ML +180) vs. Miami-FL, 28-25

The largest favorites to cover
Oklahoma (-46.5) vs. South Dakota, 70-14
Oklahoma State (-41.5) vs. McNeese, 56-14
South Carolina (-36) vs. Charleston Souther, 72-10
Indiana (-35.5) vs. Eastern Illinois, 52-0
Wisconsin (-35) vs. Central Michigan, 61-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Connecticut fell 31-23 to Illinois as 21-point underdogs at home, comfortably covering. They're 1-1 SU/ATS as the 'under' has connected in each of their first two outings. ... South Florida lost 14-10 at Georgia Tech, slipping to 0-2 SU while earning their first cover. The 'under' is also 2-0, as the Bulls have managed a total of just 10 points through two outings. ... SMU posted the 49-27 victory over North Texas to move to 2-0 SU/ATS with the 'over' also at 2-0. The Mustangs are average 43.0 points per game (PPG) while allowed 28.5 PPG. ... Memphis moved to 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS with a win and non-cover against FCS Southern. The 'over' also cashed after a low-scoring 15-10 victory in Week 1.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Boston College posted a 45-13 win over FCS Richmond in a game which involved a 'bad beat' (see below) concerning the total. ... Virginia Tech rebounded with a 31-17 win over Old Dominion, exacting a little revenge after losing in Norfolk to the Monarchs last season. ... Clemson passed their first early-season test, dropping Texas A&M in Death Valley by a 24-10 score in an 'under' result. ... Florida State was forced to overtime against Louisiana-Monroe of the Sun Belt. The Warhawks kicked missed the extra point in overtime, as FSU escaped 45-44. The Seminoles are 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS to date, with the 'over' going 2-0. ... North Carolina have moved to 2-0 SU/ATS under Mack Brown, pushing aside Miami-Florida by a 28-25 count at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. The Hurricanes are now 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS.

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State blasted Cincinnati by a 42-0 count, covering for the first time after failing to do so in the opener. ... Minnesota won in late-night action at Fresno State, surviving by a 38-35 count in double-overtime. The Gophers converted on fourth and long to score a late touchdown to force overtime, and then they registered an interception in the end zone by Antoine Winfield Jr. to move to 2-0 SU/0-2 ATS. ... Indiana routed FCS Eastern Illinois by a 52-0 count, covering a big number. They will host the Buckeyes next Saturday at 'The Rock'. ... Michigan State struggled on offense in Week 1, but they righted the ship in a 51-17 win over Western Michigan, evening their ATS mark at 1-1. ... Rutgers was dumped 30-0 at Iowa in their Big Ten opener. After throwing up 48 in their opener, the Scarlet Knights were completely different on offense in this one. Rutgers has allowed 25.5 PPG through two contests. ... Michigan was pushed to the test at the Big House against Army, needing overtime before escaping with the win. That's 0-2 ATS for the Wolverines to start. Army has locked it down on defense, allowing just 15.5 PPG for a pair of unders.

BIG 12

-- Kansas State pounded Bowling Green in a 52-0 shutout, covering the 25-point number. The Wildcats haven't exactly had much resistance through two games, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS just the same. ... Kansas won their opener, kicking off the Les Miles era in style, but they fell at home in Game 2 to Coastal Carolina of the Sun Belt. The Jayhawks are 0-2 ATS through two outings and the 'under' has connected in each outing, too. ... Texas dropped LSU in Austin by a 45-38 count. If you were laying the 6 1/2 with LSU, you were loving life when they converted a two-point conversion with just over two minutes to go, pushing their lead to 14. Texas scored late, but misfired on the onside kick to fail to cover.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Charlotte picked up the cover in a 56-41 road loss at Appalachian State. The 'over' has connected in each of the first two for the 49ers, as they're averaging 45.0 PPG on offense and allowed 42.0 PPG on defense. ... Alabama-Birmingham posted a 31-20 road win against Akron on the road. A touchdown by the Zips with 4:42 to go flipped the total from an 'under' to an 'over'. The Blazers are 2-0 SU, but 1-1 ATS with the total 1-1. ... Rice scored a late touchdown in a 41-21 loss to Wake Forest scored a late touchdown with 1:51 to go, helped out by sloppy tackling by the Demon Deacons and a screen from the umpire, helping the Owls push at most shops at +20. The late touchdown also flipped the total from 'under' to 'over'.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Kent State survived by a 26-23 score against FCS Kennesaw State. It looks like a low-quality win, but the Owls from Kennesaw, Ga. are actually a Top 15 team in the FCS rankings. ... Ball State roughed up their FCS foe, topping Fordham by a 57-29 score, although they failed to cover the 29 1/2-point number. They're 1-1 SU/ATS, with FAU on the horizon next week. The Cardinals are averaging 35.5 PPG while allowed 31.5 PPG. ... Eastern Michigan fell at Kentucky, slipping to 1-1 SU/ATS, both on the road. If the Eagles are to be successfull, they'll need better D. They're allowing 30.5 PPG through two outings. ... Northern Illinois fell at Utah, 35-17, although they were able to cover for the second time in as many weeks.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Boise State won a defensive slog on the Smurf Turf on Friday night, slipping by Marshall by a 14-7 score. The Broncos were much better defensively after their opening-game win at FSU. ... San Diego State improved to 2-0 with a road win against UCLA, 23-14. The Aztecs have had it on lockdown defensively, allowing just 7.0 PPG through two games while averaging 14.5 PPG. As such, the 'under' has easily hit in each of their two outings. ... Wyoming posted a 23-14 road win at Texas State, 23-14. It wasn't pretty, but they moved to 2-0 SU/ATS. ... Hawaii is now 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS in their two games so far, both against Pac-12 foes. They edged Oregon State 31-28, failing to cover a 6 1/2-point number. They hit the road for Washington next week in their first visit to the mainland, and third game in as many weeks against the Pac-12.

PAC-12

-- Oregon blasted Nevada by a 77-6 score, rebounding after their crumbling against Auburn last week. The Wolf Pack slipped to 1-7 all-time against the Ducks, and this was the second time they had a 70-burger hung on their by UO. Oregon also won 72-10 against Nevada at Autzen Stadium back in 1999. ... California and Washington had to endure a lengthy and rare lightning delay in Seattle. For the Bears it was worth the wait. They pulled off the 20-19 victory, dealing the Huskies a likely death blow to their playoff chances. Sure, a lot of things can happen, but the Pac-12 doesn't need any more of a challenge. ... USC posted a 45-20 win against Stanford in a battle between backup QBs. True freshman Kedon Slovis was the truth, posting very efficient numbers. K.J. Costello was out with a concussion, so Davis Mills was under center. The Cardinal hung in there until half, trailing 24-20. The 'over' was already in the bag by then, but Stanford was blanked in the second half.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Mississippi State pushed past Southern Miss of Conference USA, 38-15, as they covered the 16 1/2-point number. The Bulldogs have been consistent, notching 38 points in each of their games. As such, the 'over' has connected in each outing. ... Auburn had a bit of a hangover against Tulane, 24-6. Perhaps they were terribly impressive on offense, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS, and the 'under' has hit in each of the battles. They get Kent State next week on the Plains. ... Mississippi won 31-17 against Arkansas, as they are allowed just 16.0 PPG. The 'under' has hit in each of the two games for the Rebels. They get FCS Southeast Louisiana next week in Oxford. ... South Carolina bounced back after last week's setback on a neutral field against UNC, topping FCS Charleston Southern by a 72-10 score as 36-point favorites.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State moved to 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS with a narrow 48-42 win over FCS Furman, a Top 10 team in the FCS rankings. Their unblemished record will be put to the test again next week at Western Michigan of the MAC. ... Georgia Southern picked up a 26-18 win over FCS Maine, bouncing back from a thrashing at the hands of LSU last week. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS so far, though. ... Arkansas State were very rude guests at UNLV, winning 43-17 to bounce back from a loss to SMU last week. The Red Wolves offense is clicking, averaging 36.5 PPG while allowed 27.0 PPG. Next up is a trip to Georgia. Ouch.

Bad Beats

-- Nebraska fell 34-31 at Colorado in overtime. The total was 63.5, and there were 48 points on the board with 5:49 to go until the Cornhuskers scored to take a 31-24 lead. With Nebraska covering a 4 1/2-point number, Colorado was able to score a touchdown with just :46 to go in regulation, tying it at 31-31. They eliminated a winning ticket for 'under' bettors, too. The Buffs posted a field goal in overtime to clinch the win and cover.

-- In the BYU-Tennessee game, it appeared the Vols had it in the bag, but the Cougars moved it down the field for a game-tying field goal with :01 in regulation, tying it 16-16. With a total of 51.5, under bettors still had some wiggle room. But both teams exchanged touchdowns to make it 23-23. A field goal by Tennessee made it 26-23, so a defensive stand would clinch an under. No dice, as BYU pushed in for a game-winning touchdow to make it 29-26. The over cashed, and anyone who took the Vols on the moneyline, or bought a half-point or point on Tennessee were none too pleased, either, as the D could not hang on for a win and cover.

-- With a total of 56, Boston College led FCS Richmond by a 45-10 score late into the fourth quarter. Inexplicably, the Spiders kicked a meaningless 45-yard field goal with just :12 left in regulation to make it 45-13. Why? Under bettors couldn't believe their misfortune after going 15:09 with no points for what should've been a win.

-- In the USM-Mississippi State game, the total was 51. The Bulldogs led 31-7 midway through the fourth quarter before the Golden Eagles scored a 65-yard touchdown and two-point conversion to make it 31-15. With 2:20 left, Mississippi State cracked off a 22-yard touchdown run to pick up the 38-15 win, pushing the total over with that meaningless touchdown. It might not be a definition bad beat, but that touchdown flipped both the line and the total.

[Admin]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the second big weekend of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Wake Forest (-20) 41, Rice 21: This Friday night spread eventually hit -20 for the Demon Deacons who were caught in a 14-14 tie after the first quarter. Rice wouldn’t score again until the final two minutes of the game, but that score cut the margin from 27 to 20 to give the Owls a push for many on the closing number.

Boise State (-14) 14, Marshall 7: While the Broncos were never past this spread Friday night as Marshall scored first, they were a serious threat to beat the number in the closing seconds. Boise State had a dominant yardage edge in the game, but Marshall had the ball with a chance to tie halfway through the fourth. An interception quickly gave the Broncos the ball back and Boise State led a 15-play drive to run the rest of the remaining clock, with those on the favorite not getting the breakthrough rush they needed with Boise State eventually taking a knee inside the 10-yard-line.

Georgia Tech (-4½) 14, South Florida 10: After a disastrous showing in the opener vs. Wisconsin, South Florida did find the scoreboard first in this game with an early field goal. Georgia Tech would take over from there with two second quarter scores to lead by 11. Both teams had productive drives that came up empty in the third quarter and as Georgia Tech looked to put the game away South Florida picked up an interception to stay in the game. The Bulls slipped within the spread with an early fourth quarter score and appeared poised to take the lead after getting the ball back off another turnover. Facing 3rd-and-goal at the 1-yard-line, South Florida fumbled away its chance to go-ahead as the Yellow Jackets got the win but didn’t add points to get past the spread.

Colorado (+4) 34, Nebraska 31: A close call didn’t seem likely for Nebraska is this old Big 8 rivalry with a 17-0 halftime lead. Colorado didn’t score until late in the third quarter but struck again with a 96-yard pass play to climb within three early in the fourth quarter. It was back-and-forth from there with 38 combined fourth quarter points including Colorado tying the game with a 26-yard touchdown pass in the final minute. The Buffaloes went first in overtime and settled for a field goal while Nebraska lost seven yards on a 3rd down sack and wound up missing from 48 for a second straight difficult loss in this series.

Clemson (-14½) 24, Texas A&M 10: The defending national champions didn’t score until nearly 20 minutes into this game but wound up leading by 14 at halftime. The third quarter featured more defense until the Tigers completed a quick 83-yard touchdown drive to lead by 21. Texas A&M had a golden opportunity to score in the fourth quarter, but wound up intercepted at the 1-yard-line. It looked like Clemson would add another score to seal the favorite cover but Trevor Lawrence was also picked off near the end zone to halt a productive drive. Down three touchdowns, the Aggies only had five minutes to work with but they put together a quality drive and eventually the spread result boiled down to a 4th-and-goal play at the Clemson 2-yard-line with 10 seconds on the clock. Kellen Mond hit Jalen Wydermyer for the score, meaningless to the outcome and the national picture, but a huge swing play for many in one of the marquee non-conference games of the season.

Alabama (-55) 62, New Mexico State: A 55-point spread seems outrageous regardless of the competition but Alabama wound up leading 38-0 at the half and had the margin to the 55-point mark through three quarters after answering a New Mexico State touchdown with 17 points in the final four minutes of the third quarter. Both teams had 3-and-out possessions to start the fourth before the Aggies broke through with a few decent gains after starting in good field position and nailed a 43-yard field goal that proved to be the difference in the game.

Wyoming (-7½) 23, Texas State 14: Home underdog Texas State led 14-3 early and dominated the box score in this game. Wyoming managed to climb to within a point in the third quarter and then disaster struck for the Bobcats on a potential scoring drive with interception returned the other way for a 72-yard touchdown, suddenly putting Wyoming in front. Down six, the Texas State defense stepped up to hold Wyoming to a 19-yard field goal from 1st-and-goal from the 2-yard-line, but that kick put Wyoming past the road favorite spread with about 10 minutes to go. After an exchange of punts, Texas State appeared to give itself a shot at the comeback but a field goal was missed with three minutes remaining. Down nine in the final seconds, the outcome was set, but Texas State would get a final play from the Wyoming 6-yard-line with the spread result on the line but the Cowboys got the stop and turned in a second straight win despite losing badly in total yardage for a second straight week.

BYU (+3½) 29, Tennessee 26: The Volunteers program has had plenty of low moments in the last decade but the start of the 2019 season is certain to join that growing list. The Volunteers led 13-3 at the half, settling for a pair of second quarter field goals. BYU would score in the third, but Tennessee still led 16-10 early in the fourth and then 16-13 much later in the game. The game appeared over as BYU was pinned at its own 8-yard-line facing 2nd-and-18 in the final minute but incredibly struck for a 65-yard completion and managed to spike the ball to stop the clock in time to get off and make the tying field goal. The Volunteers would have pushed or lost on most spreads as the real losers in overtime proved to be those on the ‘under’ as both teams scored touchdowns in the first session. Tennessee settled for three in round two and BYU needed only three plays to hand Tennessee a second straight home loss with a stunning comeback win.

Kentucky (-15) 38, Eastern Michigan 17: Kentucky was in control most of the way against Eastern Michigan but led by 14 through three quarters in a game where they had only a 76 yard edge in total production. Early in the fourth, Kentucky connected for a 54-yard touchdown pass from Sawyer Smith on his first throw after Terry Wilson was injured on a vicious horse collar tackle. Mark Stoops didn’t forget that play with his offense passing three times on a late Kentucky drive including on 1st down in the final minute when the Wildcats could have taken a knee to end the game. That throw resulted in a spread swinging touchdown, though Stoops is fortunate he didn’t lose another player to a senseless injury on an unnecessary play. Spread result justice was nearly served as Mike Glass drove the Eagles down to the Kentucky 10 in the final seconds, but couldn’t connect in the end zone.

North Carolina (+4) 28, Miami, FL 25: The Tar Heels had a hot start with a few big plays to lead 17-3 early, but Miami proved to be the stronger squad posting 99 more yards in the game. The Hurricanes went up 25-20 in the fourth quarter but failed on the two-point conversion try. The Miami defense seemed ready to wrap up the game, but North Carolina converted a 4th-and-17 and eventually went ahead with a touchdown with a minute remaining. The two-point conversion put the Heels up three but Miami quickly went down the field as overtime looked likely if not a win in regulation for Miami. The drive stalled and kicker Bubba Baxa had his third missed kick of the day leaving seven points on the field in addition to Miami failing on a 4th-and-1 in the red zone in the third quarter for a tough luck 0-2 start for the Hurricanes.

LSU (-6½) 45, Texas 38: The Saturday night showcase game lived up its billing with an exciting display of offense. Texas trimmed LSU’s lead to 23-21 entering the fourth quarter but it didn’t take long for LSU to climb back up by nine. The teams exchanged scores again in quick order before Texas stalled and settled for a field goal to cut the margin to six points with four minutes to go, a significant figure with a spread that hovered near that margin all week. Texas had a chance to get the stop it needed for a shot at the upset, but on 3rd-and-17 Joe Burrow hit Justin Jefferson for 61 yards and LSU added the two-point conversion, ending hopes for the underdog with a 14-point margin. Texas would score in the final seconds but the road favorite escaped with the win and cover.

Auburn (-16) 24, Tulane 6: Tulane was a popular underdog with a spread that was as high as +18½ upon its release. Auburn led by eight late in the third quarter before completing a long drive to lead 21-6. The Tigers added a field goal in the fourth quarter before a Tulane opportunity near midfield fell short. Auburn would fumble two plays later to give Green Wave backers a miracle opportunity with the ball at the Auburn 36 but Tulane only advanced a few more yards and again fell short on 4th down.

Texas Tech (-35) 38, UTEP 3: The Red Raiders led 21-0 at halftime and 31-0 through three quarters. Adding a touchdown early in the fourth, Texas Tech was past the number at 38-0. UTEP was intercepted on the second play of its next drive, but offsides gave the ball back and Miners wound up nearly doubling its game production by getting in position for a shutout-spoiling field goal with about five minutes to go, while also spoiling the big favorite cover for many as well.

Penn State (-31½) 45, Buffalo 13: You’ll do a double-take when pulling up the box score on this game as despite slipping by the heavy favorite spread with a 32-point win, Penn State was out-gained 429-357 and had only 14 first downs. A pick-six in the third quarter put the Lions in front after actually trailing 10-7 at the half while a big punt return aided by a penalty helped Penn State quickly score again to suddenly lead 21-10. Buffalo added a field goal in the third to sit down by eight and seemingly well within a safe range for the underdog cover, but Penn State scored two more touchdowns in the final seven minutes of the third and added an early fourth quarter field goal to lead by 25. Buffalo then reached the Penn State 25-yard-line but failed on 4th-and-2 and with three minutes to go and a significant lead, James Franklin called back-to-back pass plays, the second of which resulted in a 56-yard touchdown that put Penn State ahead by 32 and was actually the longest scoring drive of the game for the Lions. Buffalo reached the Penn State 35-yard-line on its final possession, but again couldn’t convert on 4th-and-short as Bulls backers had a puzzling loss given a nearly 3:1 time of possession edge for the heavy underdog.

Minnesota (-3) 38, Fresno State 35: These teams have had exciting games the past two years with nearly identical results. Minnesota trailed 21-14 through three quarters and still 28-21 as the fourth quarter clock ticked down. On 4th-and-13, Tanner Morgan hit Chris Autman-Bell in the corner of the end zone, and he barely snuck a toe in for the tying score. In overtime, Fresno State benefitted from a 3rd down roughing the passer call and found the end zone on the next play, but Minnesota needed only three plays to answer. Going first in round two, Minnesota had to settle for a field goal to sit even with the common road favorite spread. Jorge Reyna took a shot at the end zone for the win on first down and he was intercepted by Austin Winfield, who sealed last season’s win for the Gophers with an interception in the end zone as well.

[Admin]

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

Last week's piece brought some positive results from the first week of NFL action, as divisional underdogs have gone 3-1 against the spread (2-2 straight up) so far with Monday's Denver/Oakland game still pending (with Oakland now the underdog), while the lone home team (Seattle) to host a non-conference foe barely squeaked out a SU win and never came close to covering the spread. Monday's got a game still to go in that scenario as well with New Orleans hosting Houston, but a 4-1 ATS record to start from last week's identified spots is not bad at all.

Yet, this week I am shifting over to the collegiate game, as they've got two full weeks of results already in the books and with full blown conference play just around the corner, this next week or two is the last time we'll have to break down a slew of non-conference games and the generally large spreads that come with a lot of them.

But so far this year we've seen two specific scenarios that can hopefully continue to be profitable this upcoming week, so let's get right to outlining them now.

Who's Hot

Backing 'Overs' on Power Five Conference teams after scoring 50 or more points; 7-1 O/U run so far

September is when you get a lot of 'cupcake' games for teams coming from the big Power Five conference schools as they pad their record and give their players some confidence before the meat of the schedule begins, so seeing 50+ points put up by numerous teams isn't that unheard of.

But contrary to what tends to happen say, with NFL teams after they put up 40+ (unders tend to be the way to go the following week there – keep that in mind for a few games in Week 2), these collegiate teams are fanning the flames of their offense all week long to keep that unit hot and put up another 'over' the following week.

Pac-12 teams Colorado and Washington State both scored 50+ in Week 1 and followed it up with 'over' tickets cashing in Week 2, Big 12 teams Oklahoma State and Baylor did the same thing, as did Big 10 teams Maryland and Penn State. The SEC wasn't about to get left behind either as LSU easily cashed an 'over' ticket against Texas after scoring 55 in their season opener.

The one Power Five team that failed to cash an 'over' ticket after scoring 50+ were the #1 ranked Clemson Tigers out of the ACC, as their game with ranked Texas A&M never came close to threatening the 'over'. Yet, at the same time, you could see that coming given the quality of competition on the field, whereas most of the other seven teams listed, had games against mediocre to good squads where defense isn't really a priority.

That 7-1 O/U record for teams in this spot could essentailly be nothing more than random variance combined with the notion that these strong offensive-minded programs would just prefer to play (and hopefully win) games that have both teams in the 30's and 40's if not blow a team out entirely. But what makes this scenario so interesting, at least for this week, is the fact that there are 15 different teams 'live' in it for their next game, after Week 2 saw plenty of them blowout much weaker competition.

The ACC comes in with the fewest teams once again as only Virginia is alive here after a 52-17 win over William & Mary. They've got a home game against Florida State up next which is a step up in competition level, but it's not like the Seminoles have looked good at all.

The leaders of this group are the Big 12 and Big 10 with four teams 'live' in this spot upcoming, as the Big 12 has Kansas State (@ Mississippi State), Oklahoma State (@ Tulsa), Oklahoma (@ UCLA) this weekend, with the Baylor Bears getting a week off before they try to add another 'over' to this result.

The teams from the Big 10 this week are Michigan State (vs Arizona State), Maryland, again, (@ Temple – who's off their own 50+ effort prior to getting a bye in Week 2), and Indiana (vs Ohio State), while like Baylor, the Wisconsin Badgers are hoping a week of rest doesn't cool off their offense that much.

SEC teams Alabama and South Carolina are both live in this scenario and play one another in South Carolina on Saturday, while Georgia hosts Arkansas State in what should be another easy victory for the Bulldogs.

And finally, the Pac-12 has Oregon (vs Montana), Arizona (vs Texas Tech), and Washington State (vs Houston) all apart of this scenario as well.

That's a lot of games to get through and there is little chance the 'over' continues to cash at the 87% clip it has so far, but digging deeper into some of those 15 contests and siding with the high side of the totals when they eventually come out in the next 24 hours or so could help you get the best of the number and hopefully get you to the payout window as well.


Who's Not

Backing Independent teams Against the Spread – 3-8 ATS

Since conference alignment is a bit of a theme this week, the teams with no affiliation to any conference have proven to be the worst bet in all of football so far this year. At 3-8 ATS, no conference is worse at cashing tickets then what the Independent teams have done so far.

And while it's true to say that the Independents are a small six-team “division” and would have fewer ATS wins on sheer numbers alone compared to the rest of the country that's got 10+ teams in a conference, only one division in all of conference football – the MAC East at 3-9 ATS – is comparable in terms of burning tickets. However, when you take a closer look at the three ATS wins from these Independents, you'll see that there is a case to be made that at least two of them were “gifted” to these Independent teams.

The first of those ATS wins that can be considered a gift was New Mexico State's cover as 55-point underdogs at Alabama. There wasn't a whole lot that the Aggies did themselves to earn that cover other then run the ball and sustain a few drives to keep the clock moving, as the 62-10 defeat was a point spread cover coming from the huge line alone.

The second of those 'gifts' for these Independents was BYU win over Tennessee, as right now just playing Tennessee appears to be a gift for the opponent. The Volunteers had an epic collapse in that game – punctuated by allowing a 60-yard pass in the dying seconds to give BYU a chance at a tying FG – and while BYU definitely did more then say New Mexico State to earn that ATS victory, anyone playing Tennessee right now has got to be the side you lean on.

Finally, the third ATS win for these Independents came from Army's near upset in Michigan on Saturday, and while that's not in the “gift” realm, had Michigan been able to hold onto the ball (three lost fumbles) and a fumble recovery TD for Michigan been properly called (if it was allowed to be reviewed or not) who knows how that game could have ultimately turned out. It probably won't have been near the sweat it was for Michigan fans, but covering the 20+ still might have been a stretch.

Regardless, these Independent teams are not ones that exactly ooze confidence in the betting markets right now, and with two of them – Notre Dame and Army – laying double-digit chalk at open this week, and two others – Massachusetts and New Mexico State - catching double-digit points on Saturday, it could be another rough weekend against the spread for these programs.

[Admin]

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Sept. 13

Matchup Skinny
Edge

NORTH CAROLINA at WAKE FOREST...UNC 8-3 last eleven as dog. Heels 12-7 vs. points last 19 away from Chapel Hill. Deacs 1-7 vs. line last 8 at home, no covers last five as ACC host.
North Carolina, based on team trends.


KANSAS at BOSTON COLLEGE...KU was 5-3 as DD dog LY for Beaty. BC now 9-3-1 vs. spread at Chestnut Hill since 2017.
Boston College, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at HOUSTON...The only role that worked for UH under Applewhite was home chalk (8-4). Leach on 34-20 spread run since 2015, 22-10 vs. points as visitor since 2013.
Washington State, based on Leach trends.


Saturday, Sept. 14

Matchup Skinny
Edge

OHIO STATE at INDIANA...In a stunner, Urban Meyer was just 1-6 vs. points against IU, and Hoosiers have also covered 7 of last 8 in series. Buckeyes just 2-6 vs. line away from Big Horseshoe LY. Though Hoosiers only 2-5 as home dog under Tom Allen.
Slight to Indiana, based on series trends.


KANSAS STATE at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Klieman first road game with KSU. Bill Snyder maintained good dog marks thru end of his career, as Cats 15-5 getting points the past three seasons. Moorhead was 5-1 as Starkville chalk LY and did win 31-10 at Manhattan.
-slight to Kansas State, based on team trends.


NC STATE at WEST VIRGINIA...WVU closed the Holgorsen years 5-2-1 last 8 vs. line at Morgantown. NCS just 4-6 vs. spread last 10 non-ACC for Doeren.
Slight to West Virginia, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at TEMPLE...Terps were 0-4 as road dog last year for Matt Canada, but now 2-0 vs. line for Locksley. Owls won at Md a year ago and now on 15-7-1 spread run since mid 2017 (1-0 for Carey).
Slight to Temple, based on team trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI...In this long rivalry, Cincy has now won 13 in a row SU, though Miami has covered 4 of last 6 meetings. Red Hawks have now failed to cover their last seven non-MAC games. Luke Fickell 5-2 vs. line as Nippert chalk since LY.
Cincy, based on team trends.


PITTSBURGH at PENN STATE...Narduzzi 12-6 as visiting dog with Pitt since 2015. Road team has covered last three years in series. James Franklin 4-6 vs. line last 9 as DD chalk vs. FBS foes.
Pitt, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...EMU righteous 19-5 vs. line last 24 away from Ypsilanti, 15-2 last 17 as dog away from Rynearson Stadium. Lovie 3-4 as home chalk with Illini, 7-11 vs. line at Champaign-Urbana.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA...Red Wolves only 4-6 as visiting dog since 2015. Though Kirby Smart only 11-11 laying DDs with Dawgs since 2016.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.


AIR FORCE at COLORADO...First meeting since 1974! Calhoun 17-8-1 as dog since 2014, 10-3-1 last 14 as visiting dog. Buffs 4-10 vs. spread last 13 at Boulder.
Air Force, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU on 4-13 reg season spread skid since late 2017, and just 3-8 last ten as dog. Also 2-6 last eight vs. points at Las Cruces.
San Diego State, based on NMSU negatives.


FAU at BALL STATE...Lane Kiffin was just 1-6-1 as chalk in 2018 after 9-2 mark in role the previous year. But Ball State just 2-6 as Muncie dog for Mike Neu since 2016.
Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at NOTRE DAME...UNM as cooled considerably, now on 8-18 spread skid. Though Lobos have lately had more trouble as chalk (3-12 since 2016) than as dog (11-11 that span). Irish just 7-10 vs. spread at South Bend since 2016 and are 2-6-1 laying DD since last season.
Slight to Notre Dame, based on team trends.


AKRON at CENTRAL MICHIGAN... Akron on 5-10 spread skid (0-2 for Arth). Zips 1-5 vs. spread last 6 as MAC visitor. McElwain teams now 17-11 as home chalk since 2012 with CSU (1-0 with CMU), though Chips 0-4 vs. line as home chalk for Bonamego LY.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on team trends.


STANFORD at UCF...David Shaw 13-6-1 as dog since 2011, also 5-2 vs. spread as visitor since LY. UCF 10-4 vs. line for Heupel since LY, now 17-8-1 vs. points since 2017.
Slight to UCF, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Last time Saban played at Williams-Brice he lost to Spurrier 35-21 in 2010. Muschamp 10-3 as dog since 2017, though only 2-3 as Columbia dog that span. Saban 10-5 as visiting chalk since 2015, now 12-3 last 15 vs. points as SEC visitor.
Alabama, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at NAVY...ECU continues to skid, now 10-26-1 vs. line since 2016 (0-1 for Mike Houston). Pirates just 3-12-1 as road dog that span. Navy has covered five in a row overall since late in 2018.
Navy, based on ECU negatives.


ARMY at UTSA...Army 8-1 vs. line last 9 away from Michie, though only 7-9 as chalk since 2017. UTSA just 3-9 vs. spread at Alamodome since 2017.
Slight to Army, based on team trends.


USC at BYU...Clay Helton on 9-20 spread skid last 29 on board, though he is 6-3 as visiting chalk since 2016. Cougs 0-4-1 as home dog for Sitake since 2016 but are 14-6 last 20 overall vs. line.
BYU, based on recent trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at MINNESOTA...GSU 12-7-1 vs. line and 5-2 as dog since Lunsford too
Slight to Georgia Southern, based on team trends.


UNLV at NORTHWESTERN...Sanchez 14-7 as visiting dog with Rebs since 2015, 4-0 vs. spread visiting Power 5 schools. As DD dog, UNLV 8-4 since 2016. NU 0-4 as Evanston chalk LY, 10-17 in role since 2013. Also just 2-6 last 8 vs. spread hosting non-Big 10 foes.
UNLV, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TULSA...Gundy has won and covered last 3 vs. Tulsa (though teams haven’t met every year) and has scored 59 or more on each occasion, dating to 2010. OSU 8-4-1 as DD chalk since 2017. Golden Hurricane 1-3 vs. spread last 4 hosting FBS non-ACC teams.
Oklahoma State, based on team and series trends.


MEMPHIS at SOUTH ALABAMA...Memphis 6-2 last 8 as visiting favorite, though Tigers didn’t cover vs. USA at Liberty Bowl in 2018. Memphis still 10-4 as DD chalk since 2017.
Memphis, based on team trends.


IOWA at IOWA STATE...Cy-Hawk! Ferentz has now won four straight in series and 3-0-1 vs. line that span. Iowa has also won SU last three visits to Ames. Iowa 5-0-1 vs. spread last six as visitor and 13-3-1 last 17 overall vs. spread since late 2017. ISU only 3-6 vs. spread last 9 at Ames.
Iowa, based on team and series trends.


COLORADO STATE at ARKANSAS...Revenge for Hogs after loss at Fort Collins LY. Ark just 4-9 as chalk since 2016 (0-1 TY). Rams just 1-5 last 6 as dog away from home.
Slight to Arkansas, based on CSU negatives.


WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. LOUISVILLE (at Nashville)...WKU was 6-2-1 vs. line as dog since LY. Focusing on Satterfield marks for ‘Ville as his App State and Card teams now 15-3-1 last 19 vs. spread.
Louisville, based on Satterfield marks.


ARIZONA STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Dantonio 1-6 last 7 as East Lansing chalk. Herm 3-1 as visiting dog LY, ASU 10-6-1 as dog since 2017 including upset win over MSU LY.
Arizona State, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at CAL...UNT 0-8 last 8 vs. line and 1-10 last eleven since mid 2018. No covers last six away from Denton. Bears 1-6-1 last 8 vs. line at Berkeley and 0-4-1 last five as home chalk.
Slight to Cal, based on recent UNT negatives.


LA TECH at BOWLING GREEN...Skip Holtz 6-3 as visiting chalk since 2016 and 10-4-1 away from Ruston vs. spread since 2017. BG now on 12-26 spread skid since 2016.
La Tech, based on team trends.


BUFFALO at LIBERTY...Flames just 5-9 vs. line since LY (0-2 for Freeze). UB 4-0 as visiting chalk in 2018, Leipold 17-7-2 vs. spread last 26 against FBS foes since late 2016.
Buffalo, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at TROY... USM 7-4 last 11 as dog. Golden Eagles 17-10-1 vs. spread since late 2016.
Slight to Southern Miss, based on team trends.


UMASS at CHARLOTTE...Rare home chalk for Charlotte, just 2-3 all-time in role. UMass however on 2-6 spread skid last 8 away from home (0-1 for Walt Bell).
Slight to Charlotte, based on UMass negatives.


OHIO at MARSHALL...Solich 8-3 as visiting dog since 2015, also 6-2 last 8 vs. spread as non-MAC visitor. Herd 4-10 as home chalk since 2016, 7-16 overall as chalk that span. Dog team is 28-12 in Herd games since 2016.
Ohio, based on team trends.


KENT STATE at AUBURN...Malzahn 7-19-1 vs. line as home chalk since mid 2014, 4-10-1 last 15 as non-SEC home chalk.
Kent State, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at KENTUCKY...Prior to LY’s 27-16 upset win at Gainesville, UK hadn’t beaten UF outright since 1986! Stoops 4-13 last 17 vs. spread at Lexington but 2-0 TY. Stoops also 13-8 as dog since 2016. Dan Mullen 4-0 vs. line as visitor with Gators LY.
Slight to Florida, based on extended series trends.


GEORGIA STATE at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Panthers were 0-4-2 as visiting dog LY before Vol upset. WMU rolled 34-15 in Atlanta LY though Broncos only 5-10 vs. spread since LY.
Slight to Western Michigan, based on team trends.


TEXAS STATE at SMU...Sonny Dykes 0-2 as DD chalk LY, though Bobcats just 1-4 vs. spread last five as non-Belt visitor.
Slight to SMU, based on team trends.


DUKE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Duke 1-6 as chalk in 2018 though Cutcliffe was 24-12 laying points from 2012-17. Blue Devils 5-2 vs. spread last 7 as non-ACC visitor. MTSU 9-4 vs. line last 13 as home dog.
Duke, based on extended trends.


HAWAII at WASHINGTON...Rolovich only 4-6 as mainland dog the past two seasons and 6-10-1 as underdog since 2017 (though 1-0 in role TY). Huskies just 2-6 as Seattle chalk since LY. Petersen just 2-5 vs. line last seven hosting non-Pac 12 foes.
Slight to Houston, based on team trends.


TCU at PURDUE...Frogs only 6-11 vs. line since late in 2017 but have covered 3 straight and 4 of last 5 as non-Big 12 visitor. Patterson 13-8 last 21 as dog. Purdue 1-4 as Ross-Ade chalk since LY.
TCU, based on team trends.


CLEMSON at SYRACUSE...Dino has covered last two vs. Dabo and scored upset in 2017. Cuse 5-1 vs. spread at Carrier Dome in 2018. Dabo 6-3-1 as visiting chalk past two years but did lose here in 2017. Clemson 17-9-1 as chalk since 2017 though 0-2 vs. Orange that span.
Syracuse, based on team and recent series trends.


FLORIDA STATE at VIRGINIA...FSU now 8-17-2 vs. spread since 2017, 4-10 for Taggart. Noles 2-7 as dog since 2017 (2-4 for Taggart). Cavs on 11-4 spread uptick since 2018, 8-4 last 12 vs. line at home.
Virginia, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA at UCLA...UCLA now on 23-41 skid vs. spread dating to 2014, also just 2-7 last 9 vs. points at Rose Bowl. Bruins 2-7 as home dog since 2013 (2-3 for Chip).
Oklahoma, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA...NIU12-6 as visiting dogs since 2013. Huskies did upset Huskers in Lincoln two years ago. Huskers just 2-7 as Lincoln chalk since 2017 (2-4 for Scott Frost since LY).
NIU, based on team trends.


TEXAS vs. RICE (at NRG Stadium)...Note that Tom Herman was just 1-4 vs. line as chalk away from home LY and he’s just 2-6 laying DD with Horns (though 1-0 TY). Since 2016 with Houston, Herman 3-11-1 as DD chalk (1-0 TY). Rice interestingly is 6-1 getting 20 or more since Bloomgren took over LY.
Rice, based on team trends.


TEXAS TECH at ARIZONA...Matt Wells 10-3-2 vs. line since LY with Utags & TT. Under Kingsbury., Red Raiders 10-5 as visiting dog past four years. Sumlin 0-3 vs. line with UA vs. non-Pac 12 BCS foes.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.

[Admin]

Week 3 - Upset Alerts
Matt Blunt

Last week's play turned out to be a case of what could go wrong did go wrong, as two of the plays (Texas, UTEP) from last week's card ended up losing by a half-point against the number, and in the case of Texas, there were full +7's out there later on in the week. Those days will happen and when they do, there is nothing you can do but get out the fork and knife, eat your crow as quickly as you can, and move on to the next game.

Hopefully this week's underdog card ends up producing much better results – they can't be any worse then 0-3 ATS – as the entire country creeps closer to full blown conference play. With conference rivalry games on deck for most of the country after this week, it's another week where these underdog plays are more about fading the favorite then backing the underdog, as these favorites are either coming off big wins, have huge games on deck, or both.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 0-2 SU; 1-1 ATS

Air Force (+4) vs Colorado

As I mentioned in the opening, this week's plays are more about fading the favorites then providing strong cases for the underdog, but with this game between Air Force and Colorado there is both.

On the Colorado side of things, it's really a tough spot for them this week coming off that amazing comeback OT win over Nebraska last week, one week after smoking Colorado State in a rivalry game, and now having to deal with service academy school and their triple-option attack. There is no more then six days for the Buffs to come down from the high of beating Nebraska and prepare for an option attack they rarely see, and if you've been involved in betting college football for some time now, you know that short prep time for a one-off type scenario like this is tough to deal with.

That's a lot for head coach Mel Tucker to deal with this week even with him coming out and stating that he “doesn't expect a hangover from the Nebraska game”. It's one thing to say that, and it would be more convincing if he was going up a conventional offense, but facing the triple-option is going to be quite foreign to a lot of the Buffaloes players, and they've got to cram it all in this week – hungover or not – a week before they go out and play their first road game of the year, against Pac-12 rival Arizona State no less. That's about as bad of a spot as it gets, but the bad news doesn't end there for Colorado this week.

On the other side of the field, Air Force is coming off a bye week as they are physically fresh and likely will be sharp mentally having had two weeks to prepare for this game. They've seen Colorado's defense give up 31 points in each game so far, so offensively they'll have a good chance at putting up plenty of points, and with their ball control style of attack, bleed away the clock in hopes of pulling off the outright upset. Service academy teams tend to thrive in situations like this, and I expect Air Force to do the same this week.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 0-2 SU; 0-2 ATS

Indiana (+16) vs Ohio State

Ohio State doesn't have nearly as bad of a situational spot as Colorado is dealing with this week, but it is their first road game of the year, and more importantly, the first true road game start for QB Justin Fields. Fields did see time on the field in hostile territory with Georgia last year, but nearly all of it came when the game was already in hand for the Bulldogs and there was next to nothing in terms of pressure on his shoulders. That's not the case as “the guy” at Ohio State this year, and this week, and even with by far the more talented team around him for support, that's a lot of points to lay on the road in your first career road start.

Furthermore, while Ohio State did look great last week in demolishing Cincinnati 42-0, that's not exactly as good of an omen as some may believe for the Buckeyes this week. Over the past four years, Ohio State is just 3-8 ATS when coming off a game where they didn't allow the opposition to score a TD, and if you take out the games in that scenario where they weren't laying at least double-digits, that record drops to 2-8 against the number. Put them on the road as a double-digit favorite in that scenario and they are just 1-3 ATS the past four years, and as Indiana proved to me last week (I backed Eastern Illionis at +37), they are a better team on both sides of the ball then most believe.

Add it all up, the bad history for Ohio State in this role, Fields making his first career road start, and the notion that Indiana's home field will be rocking all afternoon as their team tries to pull off a monumental upset, these points are just something I've got to take. Last year Indiana nearly knocked off Penn State in a similar role (+14 home underdogs), and I believe they keep this game with the Buckeyes much closer then this spread – and early market movement against them – suggests right now.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 0-2 ATS

New Mexico (+35) vs Notre Dame

As is the case the majority of the time with these huge underdogs, they are always going to tend to be a play that fades the favorite and this week is no different.

Notre Dame does have a nice situation for themselves this week in terms of coming off their bye week last weekend, but with a trip to #3 Georgia on deck, how much time do you think the Irish spend specifically preparing for New Mexico as opposed to Georgia? I can't imagine it being all that great, especially with the way the 2017 meeting with Georgia still looming in the back of their minds, as this week's game against the Lobos is the prototypical “get in, get the win, and get out healthy” game for Notre Dame.

I can't imagine Notre Dame has any concern with covering a number like this, even with their desire to be sharper on both sides of the ball after their win in Louisville. While it will likely be an easy double-digit outright victory for the Irish this week, asking them to win by more than five TD's is a big ask with Georgia on deck.

Throw in the fact that as a program, Notre Dame is just 8-8 ATS this decade as a favorite of 20+ points, a record that includes two ATS wins by 1.5 points or less, the number and the situation line up quite well for a fade of the Irish. New Mexico is coming off a bye as well so they've got plenty of prep time on their side too, and on top of all the negatives on the Notre Dame ATS side of things, it will be that extra prep time that helps the Aggies grab the cover.

[Admin]

Total Moves - Week 3
Matt Blunt

Week 2's underdog selections may have stunk up the joint, but last week's total plays were right on point. Oregon came out looking to take someone out behind the woodshed for a thorough beating and did just that against Nevada in an easy 'over' cashing, while the Illinois/Connecticut game topped out just over 50 as expected to stay below any and all moves on that total.

Sweeping the board like that always feels good – especially when you have an 0fer on the underdogs – but there is never too much time to pat yourself on the back in this business because then you are missing out on time spent researching and firing on the next winner(s). Can't expect to sweep the board every week, but it never hurts to try, so let's get right to this week's selections.

YTD: 3-1 ATS

Week 3 Total move to disagree with:

Alabama/South Carolina from 59.5 to 61.5

Disagreeing with a move on an Alabama total in Week 1 accounted for my only loss of the year so far with these total plays, but that isn't stopping me from going back to the well in that regard this week.

The market has seen early love for the high side of this total as Alabama rolls in to South Carolina needing to win by 26+ to cover the spread. Having averaged 52 points on offense for the first two weeks, you can get why an opening number of 60 did look low to many, hence the support for the high side of this number. I mean, whether Alabama covers this spread or not, it's hard not to believe they roll in this game as it is.

However, after Nick Saban spent much of the early week complaining about early start times due to the heat in the region, I'm not sure he's looking to run his guys up and down the field all afternoon here, as this may be one of those “get in, get out” type wins for Alabama this week. There is no concern about a big game upcoming, but with this being the first SEC game of the season, there will be that extra focus early on as the Tide establish their lead and likely look to bleed the clock from there.

At the same time, given that it is the first SEC road game of the year for Alabama, it's important to note that they have gone 2-3 O/U in that spot the past five years, allowing 7, 0, 43, 10, and 23 points in those games. The game that they pitched a shutout in back in 2017 actually cashed an 'over' as the Tide rolled over Vanderbilt with a 59-0 win, but that total was priced far too low at 42. Saban prides him program on making sure his stellar defense travels well, and that should be the case again this week.

South Carolina's offense is coming off a 72-point performance against Charleston Southern, and whenever there is a major step up in competition level like that, it's hard to expect anything near the same type of success offensively. That's a pretty obvious statement to make given that it's Alabama on the other side of the field, but this Gamecocks offense struggled against North Carolina in the opener, and scoring 10 or fewer points could definitely be in the cards for them this week against the Tide.

Will Muschamp also understands that if his team is to have a shot at pulling off a monumental upset here, it's not going to come in a 40-37 type game, it's going to come in a 28-27 type game, meaning his own defense better show out to stop Tua and company on that side of things.

What it all comes down to here is that to catch an 'over' ticket cashing, you are going to likely need 20+ points from South Carolina in this one, and there are just so many results in terms of game script where that just doesn't end up happening. Alabama's allowed 10 or less in three of those five first road SEC games of the season as it is, and with heat potentially being a factor here, this game has something like 42-13 written all over it.

Week 3 Total move to to agree with:

Clemson/Syracuse from 61 to 65

As I've stated from the start of these pieces a few weeks ago, it's always tough to bet into bad numbers like this and in-game wagering is likely the smarter way to go with these things, especially with a move the size of this one. But it's easy to agree with the 'over' support in this game for a variety of reasons.

The first being that Clemson's defense is in a great spot to have a mental letdown after dominating Texas A&M last week in the 24-10 win. That game was so hyped, and so critical to the potential success of Clemson's season that it's only natural in terms of the human nature concept for those guys to ease up a bit mentally this week against Syracuse. Yes, there have been some recent scares vs the Orange and that would have been a talking point in meeting rooms this week, but as a four TD road favorite, it's easy for those Clemson guys on defense to assume they'll just have to essentially show up and there shouldn't be too much worry about leaving with a W.

Offensively, Clemson's attack has to be salivating at the prospect of facing a Syracuse defense that gave up 63 points to Maryland last week in a game that was expected to be close. Facing that Orange defense might feel like the are up against a middle school team at times after that A&M game, and a team like Clemson that's got some of the best talent in the country on offense should have a field day. They should be able to easily get in the 40's against this team, if not threaten 60 themselves like Maryland did a week ago.

Conversely, Syracuse's offense is looking at this game as a huge redemption spot for them after getting blasted a week ago. And while South Carolina's path to a potential upset has got to come through strong defensive play, for Syracuse to do the same, it's got to be on the shoulders of QB Tommy Devito and the offense.

Devito was talked highly of coming into the year, but he's really yet to show anything of substance in deserving those kind words, and doing so on this stage could flip that narrative in a second. Going up against a Clemson defense that's nowhere near as talented as they have been in recent years, and one that may be lacking focus, this Syracuse attack that's scored 23+ points in this game in three of the past four years – against those far superior Tigers defensive units – has a shot to put up 30+ themselves this week if everything goes right.

That's still a big ask, and the best of the number is long gone, but getting 70+ points in this game is highly possible, and if Syracuse gets the ball first and has a quick three-and-out or something like that, the in-game number should be much closer to the opener and it's then where you can comfortably fire away on this 'over'.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Washington State-Houston: 75.5 to 73
Florida Atlantic-Ball State: 67.5 to 64.5
Buffalo-Liberty: 57.5 to 55
Florida-Kentucky: 50.5 to 48

Up
Maryland-Temple: 64 to 66.5
Stanford-Central Florida: 59.5 to 62
Colorado State-Arkansas: 60 to 64
Texas State-SMU: 59.5 to 62.5
TCU-Purdue: 51 to 53