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MLB 5/17

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MLB 5/17

Post by golfer4life8 » Fri May 17, 2019 2:16 pm

St. Louis Cardinals -136 vs. Texas Rangers.
Using Jose Leclerc as an opener will probably help out Adrian Sampson, but he's still got a 110 ERA-/134 FIP- for his career, and we might see a little too much of the Rangers bullpen in this game for my taste. Miles Mikolas has turned in the strong starts in a row, allowing three earned runs over his last 20 innings, to finally move above league-average in ERA-.

Rays +110 vs. Yankees
The Yankees have played amazing baseball all things considered, but the Rays are still an excellent team that's going to give New York and Boston a run for their money all year long. CC Sabathia's .183 BABIP and 6.31 FIP indicate some regression could be coming for his 3.26 ERA, and while he's done a terrific job refining himself towards the end of his career, pitching at 38 years old is really hard. On the other side, Ryne Stanek has probably been the most effective opener in the Majors since the strategy began.

Astros -133 vs. Red Sox
. Boston recovered from its slow start as many expected, but the Astros still look like the best team in baseball and won't have such favorable odds very often this season. Gerrit Cole's 32.1 K-BB rate is insanely good, and he's been unfortunate to strand only 64.5 percent of baserunners. While Rick Porcello has been much better lately, the Astros provide a major challenge with the best team wRC+ in the Majors by a huge margin.

Royals +148 vs. Angels
Matt Harvey is a lot too awful to be this big of a favorite, as he's got a 6.59 ERA and can't strike anybody out. Brad Keller had a sneaky good 2018, and while not as effective this year, is a safer bet to avoid a disastrous outing thanks to a combination of ground balls and low walk rate

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