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MLB 8/15

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MLB 8/15

Post by golfer4life8 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:21 pm

Dodgers v Marlins OVER 7.5 -107

- A total of 7.5 runs is simply just too low in this season of MLB, especially when you have an explosive offense such as the Dodgers involved in the matchup. We've seen the total set at 8 and 8.5 in the other two games this series and the Dodgers were able to cover that number on their own, scoring 9 and 15 runs in each of those games. Caleb Smith has not impressed me as much as he did earlier in the season, and 3 of his last 4 starts at home have seen the total runs go over 7.5, with that 4th game falling just short of 7.5 at 7 total runs. Walker Buehler is also someone who does not impress me much on the road. Compared to his 5-0 personal home record and 8-3 team record in his home starts to go with a 2.33 ERA, Buehler is slightly worse on the road, posting a 3.94 ERA to go along with a 5-2 personal record and 6-5 team record in those starts. Buehler has given up at least 6 runs in his last 3 road starts and of his 11 road starts this season, in just 4 of those did he manage to give up less than 3 runs. If the Marlins can hit that 3 run mark or even just 2 runs I give this game a great chance to go over that low 7.5 total.

Minnesota Twins -1.5 -106

- With Michael Pineda just getting announced as the starter for the Twins today, I like Minnesota in this spot laying the 1.5 runs on the road. In Pineda's 10 road starts this season he is posting a 5-2 personal record with a 4.24 ERA and the Twins are 6-4 in those starts. Pineda has also managed to allow greater than 3 runs in only 2 of those 10 starts, one of which was against Houston. On the other side of the matchup, this Texas Rangers team is not impressing me at all as of late. Hitting 5+ runs in just 2 of their last 8 games, the Rangers have also seen two games over that stretch end in 0 runs on offense, as well as another 2 games where they only scored 1 run. With this being their first home game in some time, of course it is possible that the Rangers come out fired up and look to get a win to start this series with the Twins. However, with the recent form of this offense I just don't see how the Rangers can keep up scoring with the Twins unless their pitchers all pitch lights out from start to finish.

Atlanta Braves (F5) ML -129

- Once again I'm going to take another play over -125 here today against my favorite team, the New York Mets. Unfortunately, I feel like the Mets great run in starting to come to a screeching halt, at least until they play the Royals tomorrow. Although the Mets were able to pick up two wins in Stroman's first two starts for them, Stroman did not impress me too much. Giving up 3 and 4 runs is not the end of the world, however the main stat that strikes me as troubling is the fact he gave up 7 and 9 hits in those two starts. Stroman cannot afford to give up 6+ hits especially against this Atlanta Braves team in this weather and ballpark. These Braves bats can eat Stroman alive if he gives up a healthy amount of hits, and those same bats are clicking right now as the Braves have scored 5+ runs in their last 8 games. On the other side, Julio Teheran is a pitcher who has really got it going in his last 7 starts. During that span he has posted 5 Quality Starts, 2-1 personal record, 5-2 team record, and a 1.91 ERA. Looking at his home stats, he has a significantly lower ERA compared to on the road (2.52 @ H vs 4.01 on R), and the Braves are 7-4 in his home starts. Teheran has not given up >3 runs in a home start since he faced the Mets on June 18th, but the Mets shelling him for 6 runs that game does not put me off this matchup. Given the Mets unpredictable bullpen I would consider betting the Braves full game ML, but the Braves bullpen is just as untrustworthy so I will stick to the F5 innings ML.

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