• Administrator
  •  
    5 Dimes NFL Pick 6 Oct Week 3 picksheet is Posted!
     

NCAAF 10/12

Sports Handicapping and Free Sports Picks. Post your plays here. Free NFL,NBA,College Football and Basketball Picks!

Moderators: theone1324, jaybvlsports, Dabears, ing_diesel, Kenny981

Post Reply
golfer4life8
Posts: 591
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2007 2:38 am
NCAAF 10/12

Post by golfer4life8 » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:00 am

Toledo -26 over Bowling Green:
In the MAC opener last week for the Rockets (4-1 1-0), Mitch Guadagni (14/22 200 2 TD 1 INT) accounted for 4 Toledo TD running for two 2 yard scores. Toledo won their 4th straight edging Western Michigan 31-24 at the Glass Bowl. Guadagni opened the scoring by hitting Bryce Mitchell (4-119 1 TD) on a 38 yard pass 3 minutes into the game. and later hooked up with Devin Maddox (3-14 1 TD) on a 5 yard TD connection. Bryant Koback ran for 177 yards on 21 carries (8.4) despite being kept out of the end zone. The Rockets defense recorded 6 sacks and forced a turnover outgaining the Broncos 475-420. John Wassink (25/51 303 2 TD 1 INT) got off to a slow start and despite bringing Western Michigan to within a TD late, could not get any closer when it counted. Wassink found Jaylen Hall (3-66 1 TD) on a 43 yard TD connection and later hooked up with Giovanni Ricci (4-36 1 TD) on a 6 yard scoring toss. Levante Bellamy (13-70 5.4 1 TD) broke free on a 39 yard TD run with 7:55 remaining, but the rally fell short for the Broncs. Meanwhile, the Falcons of Bowling Green (1-4 0-1) were blanked by #9 Notre Dame 52-0 in South Bend. Ian Book (16/20 261 5 TD) picked apart BG’s secondary throwing all 5 of his scoring passes in the first half, a couple to Chase Claypool (3-61 2 TD) and one to the Irish’s leading receiver of the game Javon McKinley (5-104 1 TD). Grant Loy (13/25 106 1 INT) was subpar and only showed success on short drops. The Falcons were outgained 573-228 despite possessing the ball for 34 minutes.

The Rockets have the 9th best rushing attack in the country allotting an average of 265 yards per contest on the ground. Kobeck (91-628 6.9 6 TD) is a sizable threat in the backfield with speed and an impressive ypc following his blocks effectively. Earlier this season he carved up Colorado St for 228 yards and should enjoy similar success in week 7. Guadagni (55-292 5.3 4 TD) is pretty nimble on his feet as well surveying the pocket and has done a nice job under center as well (62/102 905 7 TD 2 INT) in a primary run led offense. He’s thrown TD passes to 6 different receivers led by Mitchell (15-365 1 TD) who when targeted can get behind opposing corners and routes to the sidelines. Toledo likes to operate quickly taking advantage of their power ground and pound speed attack as evident of their 37 points per contest. They’re likely of doing a solid job in the hurry up successfully catching the Falcons off guard as BG surrenders 39 points on average,especially exposing their weakness against the run (224 yards) falling into the bottom 10 in the nation. They’re not much better against the pass, so Giadagni may take some pressure off of his crew if he can establish a big lead establishing the running game, but then again dinks and dunks don’t exactly kill time with the task at hand. Bowling Green defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder had an abysmal run defense at Auburn in 2012 (197.6 yards per game), had the worst three-year stretch of rush defense in Notre Dame history (2014-16) and his 2018 Louisville defense ranked 127th in the country in rush defense. If this were a chess match, you might want to tip your king before the first snap is recorded if you are the not so flying high Falcons.

The dual QB combination in Darius Wade (68/116 683 TD 3 INT) and Loy (24/43 192 2 TD 1 INT) has not proved paying dividends for this anemic Bowling Green offense, which averages a mere 15 points per contest, and only 7 if you discount their 46-3 opening scrimmage against cupcake Morgan St. The running game is marginally better, but the Falcons have run for just 5 TD’s all season long led by Devon Jones (59-264 4.5 1 TD). Quintin Morris (26-310 2 TD) is BG’s top receiver, but there’s not much balance overall in either sector of this offense, as opposing matchups have become nowhere favorable. Toledo’s defense is fairly decent, allowing 24 points per contest, but where they lag and may have difficulty down the road keeping their MAC title chances alive is in their pass defense, where they are in the bottom 15 allowing 302 yards per game through the air and 465 overall. What this Rockets team does thrive at is bending but not breaking thanks to their quick strike offense which forces opponents to come from behind most often. Look for Kahil Robinson to be a factor in the trenches as he is among the leaders in the country with 4 INT thus far. Jamal Hines is also a dominating presence downfield and close to scrimmage, leading the Rockets in tackles overall.

Toledo’s phonetic pace and ability to run their offense under Giadagni and Kobeck through various angles and following successful blocking will be too much for Bowling Green to overcome. Given the fact that Wade and Loy are just middle of the road with their strength and accuracy plus not much balance in the rushing game, the only saving grace for the Falcons is to match speed and endurance limiting Toledo in opportunities possibly shifting Guadagni away from Toledo’s gameplan. I don’t see it happening as Toledo could easily run this up before grinding out the finishing touches.



golfer4life8
Posts: 591
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2007 2:38 am
Re: NCAAF 10/12

Post by golfer4life8 » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:00 am

(8)Wisconsin -10 over Michigan St (bought half):
Jack Coan (12/15 134 2 TD) must have either heard me or needed the necessary shot in the arm Badgers fans were willing to give him after that debacle of a win against Northwestern 2 weeks ago. The 6’3’’ junior answered the bell with a much more efficient performance last week while it was just another day at the office for Jonathan Taylor (19-186 9.8 4 TD) as Wisky pitched a 48-0 shutout over Kent St. The 8th ranked Badgers (5-0 3-0) used a balanced, time consuming combination of the run and pass while enforcing their dominating defense against the Golden Flashes that merely just hit the pan last week. Taylor rushed for 3 of his scores in the first half and also caught an 18 yard pass in the end zone from Coan just before halftime as Wisconsin raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead. Taylor then cashed in his 4th rushing TD just :40 into the second half blazing out of the backfield 48 yards later Jack Dunn finished Kent St off late with a window dressing 3 yard scoring run, and the Badgers outgained Kent 520-124 overall while nearly possessing the ball for 41 minutes The Golden Flashes managed just 10 first downs to Wisconsin’s 29, and the combination of Woody Barrett (4/9 36) and Dustin Crum (6/8 28) produced nothing but a huge goose egg not looking past their outing this week against Michigan St. Meanwhile, Sparty (4-2 2-1) themselves could not get much going last week against 4th ranked Ohio St, falling 34-10 thanks to 172 yards on 24 carries (7.2) and a TD from JK Dobbins. The Buckeyes also got a rushing score from Justin Fields (11-61 5.5 1 TD), who also had an efficient evening under center (17/25 206 2 TD 1 INT) against a formidable Michigan St defense. Fields hit Luke Farrell for his only catch of the game 21 yards to paydirt that put Ohio State in charge for good. Fields earlier connected with Binjimen Victor (3-79 1 TD) on a 60 yard passing score as the Buckeyes outgained the Spartans 525-289 while the defense forced 4 turnovers. Brian Lewerke (20/38 218 1 TD 1 INT) was mediocre at best and MSU managed just 67 yards on the ground. MSU continues their conference trip to Camp Randall Saturday afternoon.

Coan (85/114 939 7 TD 1 INT) for the most part has been efficient in the passing game but in the pocket as of late makes me nervous scrambling his way out of trouble, almost to the tune of a right handed Alex Hornibrook, except the latter had made far more mistakes with his accuracy in his college career. Of course, it helps when you have Taylor (103-745 7.2 12 TD) in the backfield to take most of the pressure off, as well as a formidable target downfield (12-114 4 TD) or in the flat. The dual threat Heisman hopeful has been a one man show workhorse throughout the Badgers’ success thus far. When Taylor proceeds to the sidelines, Nakia Watson (48-204 4.3 2 TD) sees most of the action in the more extended short term, but alongside the corners and up the middle Quintez Cephus (17-263 2 TD) and AJ Taylor (14-138) are Coan’s top targets. Wisconsin of course is not one to go tempo in their line of scrimmage scheme but look to wear opponents’ front lines down on the ground with their 10th ranked rushing offense that generates 254 yards per contest. Averaging better than 43 points per game, Michigan St’s defense will be a true test for Wisconsin as they only give up 18 per contest themselves. Opponents only average a shade over 100 yards on the ground while their secondary is respectable as well. However, their vulnerability in the breakdown against Ohio State can by no means carry over. Raequan Williams will have to seize penetration early closing up gaping holes and to defend with speed on the outside in order to stop Taylor, and Kenny Wilekes will be among the backs essential to contain Wisconsin’s front line, which averages better than 320 pounds.

Lewerke (124/212 1543 11 TD 2 INT) engineers even a slower paced offense for Sparty, but his numbers show efficiency and he has been relatively poised to make solid accurate throws when called upon. Darrel Stewart Jr (41-624 4 TD) and Cody White (24-299 2 TD) were limited last week as Ohio St dominated defensively, and both are going to have to be better as they aim to keep Wisconsin’s secondary on their toes. Elijah Collins (90-476 5.3 3 TD) who was held to just 63 yards last week and has only one performance exceed triple digits thus far. Lewerke and company have their work cut out for them though against the Badger defense which has allowed a shade less than 6 points per game, including 3 convincing shutouts against much less competition. The Badgers rank first in the nation in passing yards allowed per game (131.0), pass efficiency (78.29 rating), total defense (178.6) ,and third down conversion percentage defense (15.9). Jack Sanborn leads the way with 29 tackles, and by committee this bunch has gotten the job done collectively as a team with 8 other DB’s contributing with double digit stops. Safety Madison Cone returns from a left leg injury, and LB Leo Chanel has made a true impact in just 4 games amassing 12 tackles while recording his first sack of the season last week.

I expect this game to transpire into more of a chess match early, but not similar to the win over Northwestern a few weeks back when this bunch at times looked like they were sleepwalking. The talent on both sides of the ball clearly favors Wisconsin here, and while you can’t stop Taylor but only hope to contain him, Coan needs to stay efficient by moving the ball methodically and making his passes count on successful drives. Wisconsin will look to expose State’s struggles against the run last week. Sparty also must take better care of the ball, because of the Badgers are making plays defensively, short fields will only lead to unforced errors and gifted points. Plus you have Cephus downfield who looks to get more involved. Wisky won’t take Sparty lightly tomorrow afternoon, especially if they can dictate the advantage early.


Post Reply