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NCAAB 3/6
Moderators: theone1324, Kenny981
NCAAB 3/6
McNeese State -16.5
I'm a sucker to take big spreads, why? Cause when you're favored by that much, you're clearly a much superior team... doesn't guarantee you'll cover but I like this spot for a few reasons. McNeese State doesn't just have some regular up and comer coach you've never heard of... they're coached by Will Wade. Putting that aside, they're 27-3. They are a real deal team that you've never heard of that could win a couple games in the tournament. They're 14-11-1 ATS, but they're rolling right now. They've won 8 in a row, and last time they played New Orleans they beat them by 1000. I'm not often a fan of road spots, but I like this one. There is a lot of motivation for McNeese to blow the doors off in this game, they're likely to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney, but it's not a guarantee. Currently, they're sitting around the 13 seed line, anything they can do to bolster their resume they're going to be motivated to do. You get rewarded for blowing out bad teams now (it's why the BIG12 is so overinflated) McNeese has let me down a few times when I've backed them, but I'm gonna back them again here tonight.
Kentucky-17.5
To be fair though most of the year I've ignored the model when it comes to handicapping Kentucky. They're so bad defensively that the numbers give too much credit to how bad they are there, that they don't give enough credit to how good they are offensively. Model has Kentucky with a TT of 83, these guys score 100 at will. There are a few variables at play here, Kentucky has to win this game for SEC Tournament seeding. Obviously, it goes without saying as well that a loss here really hurts your NCAAT resume, Vanderbilt is F##cking putrid. The other variable is this... it's Senior Night. It's likely the last time Kentucky fans are going to see Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, and possibly several other fab Freshman, it's FOR SURE the last time they're going to see Tre Mitchell and potential All-American the quietest 20 PPG crafty veteran, maybe the most sound and improved player in the Calipari era Antonio "Tony" Reeves suit up in Rupp Arena. You think these guys are going to end their Rupp careers with anything short of an absolute Vandy butt F##cking? I don't think so, and like I said before blowing the doors off bad teams helps your resume. I know Vegas was being conservative here with the opening line at -19.5, but Kentucky beat Vandy by 250 in their own gym a few weeks ago. Add in one more tiny sprinkle that Calipari absofuckinglutely loathes Jerry Stackhouse. He's going to run this shit up if possible, sorry Vanderbilt.
Utah State -10.5
Another road spot here, totally going against everything I deem as logic today... sorry in advance. What's to say about this one? This is another game with NCAA Tournament seeding implications. Utah State is ranked, they're likely to make the tournament with an at-large bid but seeding is going to be a real issue with this conference. I see 5, maybe even 6 teams possibly getting at large bids from the MW (depending on who wins the conference tournament), I can't remember the last time a non-power conference got that many teams in... but the Mountain West is likely going to do it. They're currently sitting around the 5-8 seed line so there is some urgency here to set themselves apart from the rest of the pack they're jostling with for Big Dance tickets.
I'm a sucker to take big spreads, why? Cause when you're favored by that much, you're clearly a much superior team... doesn't guarantee you'll cover but I like this spot for a few reasons. McNeese State doesn't just have some regular up and comer coach you've never heard of... they're coached by Will Wade. Putting that aside, they're 27-3. They are a real deal team that you've never heard of that could win a couple games in the tournament. They're 14-11-1 ATS, but they're rolling right now. They've won 8 in a row, and last time they played New Orleans they beat them by 1000. I'm not often a fan of road spots, but I like this one. There is a lot of motivation for McNeese to blow the doors off in this game, they're likely to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney, but it's not a guarantee. Currently, they're sitting around the 13 seed line, anything they can do to bolster their resume they're going to be motivated to do. You get rewarded for blowing out bad teams now (it's why the BIG12 is so overinflated) McNeese has let me down a few times when I've backed them, but I'm gonna back them again here tonight.
Kentucky-17.5
To be fair though most of the year I've ignored the model when it comes to handicapping Kentucky. They're so bad defensively that the numbers give too much credit to how bad they are there, that they don't give enough credit to how good they are offensively. Model has Kentucky with a TT of 83, these guys score 100 at will. There are a few variables at play here, Kentucky has to win this game for SEC Tournament seeding. Obviously, it goes without saying as well that a loss here really hurts your NCAAT resume, Vanderbilt is F##cking putrid. The other variable is this... it's Senior Night. It's likely the last time Kentucky fans are going to see Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, and possibly several other fab Freshman, it's FOR SURE the last time they're going to see Tre Mitchell and potential All-American the quietest 20 PPG crafty veteran, maybe the most sound and improved player in the Calipari era Antonio "Tony" Reeves suit up in Rupp Arena. You think these guys are going to end their Rupp careers with anything short of an absolute Vandy butt F##cking? I don't think so, and like I said before blowing the doors off bad teams helps your resume. I know Vegas was being conservative here with the opening line at -19.5, but Kentucky beat Vandy by 250 in their own gym a few weeks ago. Add in one more tiny sprinkle that Calipari absofuckinglutely loathes Jerry Stackhouse. He's going to run this shit up if possible, sorry Vanderbilt.
Utah State -10.5
Another road spot here, totally going against everything I deem as logic today... sorry in advance. What's to say about this one? This is another game with NCAA Tournament seeding implications. Utah State is ranked, they're likely to make the tournament with an at-large bid but seeding is going to be a real issue with this conference. I see 5, maybe even 6 teams possibly getting at large bids from the MW (depending on who wins the conference tournament), I can't remember the last time a non-power conference got that many teams in... but the Mountain West is likely going to do it. They're currently sitting around the 5-8 seed line so there is some urgency here to set themselves apart from the rest of the pack they're jostling with for Big Dance tickets.